• Title/Summary/Keyword: force of mortality

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An Estimation of an Old Age Mortality Rate Using CK Model and Relational Model

  • Jung, Kyunam;Kim, Donguk
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.19 no.6
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    • pp.859-868
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    • 2012
  • Due to a rapidly aging society, the future Korea mortality rate is important for planning national financial strategies and social security policies. Old age mortality statistics are very limited in their ability to project a future mortality rate; therefore, it is essential to accurately estimate the old age mortality rate. In this paper, we show that the CK model with a Relational model as a base model provides accurate estimates of old age mortality rates.

Estimation and Projection of Work-life Expectancy by Increment/Decrement Work-Life Table Method (증감 노동생명표에 의한 노동기대여명의 측정과 전망)

  • Park, Kyung-Ae;Choi, Ki-Hong
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.51-72
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    • 2006
  • In Korea, most studies have used the conventional Wolfbein and Wool method, which cannot be applied to women's work-life table because of bimodality and/or M curve of female labor force participation. The increment/decrement work-life table method, however, is equally applicable to both men and women, but requires individual data on employment transition. This paper demonstrates that the Garfinkle-Pollard method is the same as the increment/decrement work-life table method developed by Hoem, Schoen and Woodrow and adopted by BLS. The merit of Garfinkle-Pollard method is to produce work-life table using labor force participation rate without individual employment transition. This paper applies the Garfinkle-Pollard methods to the estimation and projection of work-life of Korean labor force for the period of 2000-2050, using the abridged life tables provided by Korean National Statistical Office and a projection of labor force participation rates. The work-life expectancy at 65 is 5.8 years for men and 4.1 years for women in 2000, and it increased to 7.7 years for men and 5.1 years in 2050. However, differences in work-life expectancy are found depending on the data processing of elderly labor force participation and mortality assumption. Detailed data on elderly labor force participation and further study on future mortality are required to estimate and project more accurate work-life expectancy.

Conversion between Decrement Models using Cubic Spline (삼차 스플라인 보간법을 활용한 탈퇴율 전환방법)

  • Kim, Ju Kyung;Lee, Hangsuck
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.549-568
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    • 2013
  • This paper discusses conversion methods between multiple decrement models and associated single decrement models. One of most popular assumptions on fractional age is UDD(uniform distribution of decrement) or constant force of mortality in actuarial practice. Instead of these assumptions, this paper suggests cubic spline interpolation to approximate the distribution of fractional age with the continuous force of decrements. Conversion formulas are derived. The comparisons of these two methods based on the numerical data show that the cubic spline interpolation approach is more accurate.

Introduction of Non-Native Ticks Collected from Fresh Migratory Bird Carcasses on a Stopover Island in the Republic of Korea

  • Choi, Chang-Yong;Kim, Heung-Chul;Klein, Terry A.;Nam, Hyun-Young;Bing, Gi-Chang
    • Parasites, Hosts and Diseases
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    • v.60 no.1
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    • pp.57-63
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    • 2022
  • When free-ranging birds are accidentally killed or die, there may be greater potential for their associated ticks to detach, seek alternate hosts, and become established. We examined 711 carcasses of 95 avian species for ticks at a stopover island of migratory birds in the Republic of Korea where only Ixodes nipponensis and I. persulcatus were previously reported from local mammals and vegetation. A total of 16 ticks, I. turdus and Haemaphysalis flava, were collected from 8 fresh carcasses belonging to 5 avian species. Despite their known abundance on migratory birds and mainland Korea, these species had not colonized the isolated insular ecosystem possibly due to the low abundance and diversity of local hosts. The results imply that increasing human impact, such as the anthropogenic mortality of migratory birds and the introduction of non-native mammalian hosts, will increase the potential invasion and colonization risk of ticks. This finding also suggests that tick surveillance consisting of fresh carcasses of dead migratory birds may provide additional information, often ignored in surveillance of ticks on live birds, for the potential introduction of non-native ticks and associated pathogens affecting animal and human health.

The Study on Potential Gains in Working Life Expectancy according to the Degree of Reduction of Specific Causes of Death (특정사인제거정도가 부분노동력여명에 미치는 연장효과에 관한 연구)

  • 신성철
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.13-29
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    • 1986
  • This study was carried out to calculate working life expectancy and its potential gains according to the degree of reduction in the specific causes of death. It sought to ascertain what potential gains in labor force longevity might be reasonably achieved through efforts to reduce mortality from injuries and poisoning, diseases of circulatory system, neoplasms and the other causes of death. The data were drawn from the three sources such as "The 1982 Causes of Death Statistics," "Abridged Life Table for Korea 1978~'79" and "The 1982 annual Report of Economically Active Population" issued by Economic Planning Board. Analytical tools used in this study were the cause-deleted life table and the Wolfbein Wool's working life table method. Partial life expectancy was adopted as an index of this study, This application will be widely used as a good demographic tool for analyzing the dynamics of labor force and causes of death. Some of the findings are summerized as follows. 1. Partial life expectancies from initial age 15, 25, and 45 respectively to terminal age 65 are 44.86, 35.59 and 17.41 year in life expectancy itself, 37.08, 32.83 and 15.21 year in working life expectancy, 7.78, 2.76 and 2.20 years in inactive life years. 2. Potential gains in working expectancy from initial age 15, 25 and 45 to terminal age 65 by the complete elimination of the specific causes of death are 1.36, 0.94 and 0.27 years in injuries and poisoning, 0.88, 0.83 and 0.54 years in diseases of circulatory system, 0.56, 0.54 and 0.37 years in neoplasms, 1.13, 1.02 and 0.58 years in the other causes of death. The relationship between degree of reduction in causes of death and potential gains in working life years is in direct proportion. The prime orders of reduction effectiveness in age groups by the causes of death are injuries and poisoning in age 15-24, the other causes of death in age 25-49 and diseases of circulatory system in age 50 and over. 3. If it were possible to reduce 25%, 50% and 75% in mortality condition 1978~'79, the average length of working life would be 38.08, 39.13 and 40.17 years in age 15, and 33.68, 34.57 and 35.44 years in age 25, and 15.67, 16.14 and 16.63 years in age 45.

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Effects of Dietary Supplementation of Pine Needle Powder on Carcass Characteristics and Blood Cholesterol Contents of Broiler Chicken (사료내솔잎분말첨가급여가육계의도체특성및혈액콜레스테롤함량에미치는영향)

  • Kim, Young-Jik
    • Korean Journal of Poultry Science
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    • v.38 no.1
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    • pp.51-57
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    • 2011
  • This study was conducted to investigate the effects of supplementation diets of pine needle powder on performance, proximate composition, carcass characteristics, blood cholesterol concentration, TBARS (thiobarbituric acid reactive substance), WHC (water holding capacity), and shear force of chicken meat. Broiler chicks were fed diets for five weeks containing 0% pine needle powder (Control), 0.3% pine needle powder (T1), 0.6% pine needle powder (T2), and 0.9% pine needle powder (T3). Performance was no significant difference among treatment groups, but mortality was decreased in diets by the supplementation of pine needle powder than that of T1 and control. The moisture, crude protein, crude fat, and crude ash were no significant difference. The liver weight and abdominal fat was significantly decreased by the supplementation of pine needle powder compare to the T1 and control (P<0.05). The total cholesterol and LDL-cholesterol concentration of control was higher than treatment groups, and the HDL-cholesterol concentration and glucose of control was lower than treatment groups (P<0.05). The TBARS value was significantly decreased by the supplementation of pine needle compared to the control (P<0.05). In conclusion, these data indicate that 0.6% pine needle powder supplementation (T2) was most effective in decreasing mortality, total cholesterol and LDL-cholesterol and increasing HDL-cholesterol concentration.

A Study on the Braking Force Distribution of ADAS Vehicle (첨단 운전자 보조시스템 장착 차량의 브레이크 제동력 분배에 관한 연구)

  • Yoon, Pil-Hwan;Lee, Seon Bong
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.19 no.11
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    • pp.550-560
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    • 2018
  • Many countries have provided support for research and development and implemented policies for Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) for enhancing the safety of vehicles. With such efforts, the toll of casualties due to traffic accidents has decreased gradually. Korea has exhibited the lowest toll of casualties due to traffic accidents and is ranked 32nd in mortality among the 35 OECD members. Traffic accidents typically fall into three categories depending on the cause of the accident: vehicle to vehicle (V2V), vehicle to pedestrian (V2P), and vehicle independent. Most accidents are caused by drivers' mistakes in recognition, judgment, or operation. ADAS has been proposed to prevent and reduce accidents from such human errors. Moreover, the global automobile industry has recently been developing various safety measures, but on-road tests are still limited and contain various risks. Therefore, this study investigated the international standards for evaluation tests with regard to the assessment techniques in braking capability to cope with the limitations of on-road tests. A theoretical formula for braking force and a control algorithm are proposed, which were validated by comparing the results with those from an on-road test. These results verified the braking force depending on the functions of ADAS. The risks of on-road tests can be reduced because the proposed theoretical formula allows a prediction of the tendencies.

An Analysis on Changing Pattern of Economic Active Population by Working Life Table for Korean Men (우리나라 노동생명표에 의한 노동력추이 분석)

  • 조진만
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.1-18
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    • 1990
  • This is a study which attempt to analyze changing patierns of economic active popu-lation, t o estimato- future patterns, and exa- mine vartons problems arises by changing c ire u mst ances of t he labor force market in- clunging soici al, economic ic, heathl th and demoi-graph ic aspects. We have constructed series of wotking life table which are useful in syt uiolyioig the lirocess of growth and structural change of labor force. Work i ng life tables represent ihie life eyele of econrmic' activity in hi ypothetical cohorts, that is. gen-erat i on of men Sn bject at eat' b period ot f their lives th given ra to's o mor tali it y and of par-- tici pation in economic activities. The tabloes prot' ide measorues of the alvet'age he ng t able of economically aeti \- e life. and agespecific rates of en trannee' into and retirement from the hahn' force. In const routing working life tables, age-specific activity rates and life tabole popula- titoto which represents contemporary condi-tions of moortality in Korea au'e the basic' maltoerials. We have derived the age-specific rates foorm economically active population survey, whoich were conducted by the Bureau of Statistics, Economic Planning Borard of the Korean government. Working life tables are constructed for men wtable these materi- als in the year of 1970, 1980 and 1988 by a modified Wolfbein-Wool's method. Some of the findings may be summerized as follow : 1) A central part of constructing working life table is calculation of stationary' economic active population, which represents the number of men in the stationtary population extoected to be in the labor force at each age group in the life span. The stationary economic active population by age have generally a universal pattern, where they rise sharply in the early twenties, approach its' peak in the thirties decline thereafter. at first graolually and then more rapidly at an advanced age. Korean men show the same general pa ttern of age distribution of stationary eco-- nomic active population with sharp increase hegining from the age interval of 20 to 24, reaching to maximum level at older age. The population. however, presumably, increased substantially due to increaseing school atte endance rates. Another difference exiSts in the youngest age groups, that is the activity rate in the year of 1988 is lower than that of Japan. The table shows an analysis of changes in the age distrihution of labor force between 1970, 1980 and 1988. 2) It was shown an analysis of changes in the age distribution and cause of separation from labor force. The entrance rate to labor force has increased from 18~\5 persons to 299 persons per 1000 head of stationary population between that of 1980 than that of 1988 for Korean men in 20~24 age group. The entrace rate to labor force shows a rapid entrance appearance concentrated on the 15~24 age group. The separation rate from labor force by retirment in Korea in the year of 1988 shows a great difference of the about four times as much as that of Japan. 3) The functions of table illustrate the patterns of working life of males in Korea in 1970, 1980 and 1988. The average remaining number of economically active years, e at age 15 in 1988 is 46.39 which is 2.12 years of increase compared with that of at age 15 in 1970,1980 and 1988 are 43.90,44.27 and 46.39 respectively, showing steadily increase dur- ing the past double decade the increase in the length of economically active life various age may be considered to have come both from extention of general life expectancy and from increasing entrance rate to economic activity in high age that of working is far greater in 1988 than that of 1980. The gaps between expectation of life and average remaining years of economically active widened due to rapid improvement of mortality level in Ko- rea. This observation together with the population pressure by the appearance of a group of younger population implies that constant increase of economically inactive population among older age group.

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Non-Surgical Management of Gastroduodenal Fistula Caused by Ingested Neodymium Magnets

  • Phen, Claudia;Wilsey, Alexander;Swan, Emily;Falconer, Victoria;Summers, Lisa;Wilsey, Michael
    • Pediatric Gastroenterology, Hepatology & Nutrition
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.336-340
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    • 2018
  • Foreign body ingestions pose a significant health risk in children. Neodymium magnets are high-powered, rare-earth magnets that is a serious issue in the pediatric population due to their strong magnetic force and high rate of complications. When multiple magnets are ingested, there is potential for morbidity and mortality, including gastrointestinal fistula formation, obstruction, bleeding, perforation, and death. Many cases require surgical intervention for removal of the magnets and management of subsequent complications. However, we report a case of multiple magnet ingestion in a 19-month-old child complicated by gastroduodenal fistula that was successfully treated by endoscopic removal and supportive care avoiding the need for surgical intervention. At two-week follow-up, the child was asymptomatic and upper gastrointestinal series obtained six months later demonstrated resolution of the fistula.

Grip Strength as a Predictor of Cerebrovascular Disease (뇌혈관질환의 예측인자로서의 악력)

  • Jung, Seok-Hwan;Kim, Jae-Hyun
    • Health Policy and Management
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.303-311
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    • 2019
  • Background: Cerebrovascular disease is included in four major diseases and is a disease that has high rates of prevalence and mortality around the world. Moreover, it is a disease that requires a high cost for long-term hospitalization and treatment. This study aims to figure out the correlation between grip strength, which was presented as a simple, cost-effective, and relevant predictor of cerebrovascular disease, and cerebrovascular disease based on the results of a prior study. And furthermore, our study compared model suitability of the model to measuring grip strength and relative grip strength as a predictor of cerebrovascular disease to improve the quality of cerebrovascular disease's predictor. Methods: This study conducted an analysis based on the generalized linear mixed model using the data from the Korea Longitudinal Study of Ageing from 2006 to 2016. The research subjects consisted of 9,132 middle old age people aged 45 years or older at baseline with no missing information of education level, gender, marital status, residential region, type of national health insurance, self-related health, smoking status, alcohol use, and economic activity. The grip strength was calculated the average which measured 4 times (both hands twice), and the relative grip force was divided by the body mass index as a variable considering the anthropometric figure that affects the cerebrovascular disease and the grip strength. Cerebrovascular diseases, a dependent variable, were investigated based on experiences diagnosed by doctors. Results: An analysis of the association between grip strength and found that about 0.972 (odds ratio [OR], 0.972; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.963-0.981) was the incidence of cerebral vascular disease as grip strength increased by one unit increase and the association between relative grip strength and cerebrovascular disease found that about 0.418 (OR, 0.418; 95% CI, 0.342-0.511) was the incidence of cerebral vascular disease as relative grip strength increased by unit. In addition, the model suitability of the model for each grip strength and relative grip strength was 11,193 and 11,156, which means relative grip strength is the better application to the predictor of cerebrovascular diseases, irrespective of other variables. Conclusion: The results of this study need to be carefully examined and validated in applying relative grip strength to improve the quality of predictors of cerebrovascular diseases affecting high mortality and prevalence.