• Journal of Korea Trade
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.1-17
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• 2021

Purpose - The global trend of protectionism has expanded since the onset of US President Donald Trump's administration in 2017. This global phenomenon has led to a significant reduction in world trade volume and a negative impact on economic development in some countries where the external sector accounts for a large proportion of GDP. Although Korea is a country vulnerable to this deteriorating trade environment, few studies have examined the relationship between protectionism and its business cycles based on Korean data. Thus, this paper investigates the impact of protectionism on Korea's business cycle. Design/methodology - To identify future implications, we conduct a structural vector autoregression (VAR) analysis using monthly Korean data from 1994 to 2015. Macroeconomic variables in the model include the industrial production index, inflation rates, exports (or net exports), interest rates, and exchange rates. For the identification of the shock reflecting the expansion of protectionism, we use an antidumping investigation (ADI) data. Since ADIs are followed generally by the imposition of antidumping tariffs, they have no contemporaneous impact on tariffs and are also contemporaneously exogenous to other endogenous variables in the VAR model. We examine two kinds of ADI shocks i) shocks on Korean exports imposed by Korea's trading partners (ADI-imposed shocks) and ii) shocks on imports imposed by the Korean government (ADI-imposing shocks). Findings - We find that Korea's exports decline sharply due to ADI-imposed shocks; the lowest point at the third month after the initial shock; and do not recover until 24 months later. Simultaneously, the inflation rate decreases. Therefore, the ADI-imposed shock can be regarded as a negative shock on the demand curve where both production and price decrease. In contrast, the ADI-imposing shock generates a different response. The net exports decline, but the inflation rate increases. These can be seen as standard responses with respect to the negative shock on the supply curve. Originality/value - We shed light on the relationship between protectionism and Korea's economic fluctuations, which is rarely addressed in previous studies. We also consider the effects of both protective policy measures on imports to Korea imposed by the Korean government and on policy measures imposed by Korea's trading partner countries on its exports.

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.13 no.3
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• pp.781-799
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• 2009

Korea and China should come up with a mutually beneficial FTA proposal at an early date and thus lead the way towards the FTA. An FTA with China is a key issue of economic cooperation in order to confront soaring Chinese competitiveness in international markets. The purpose of this research paper is to analyze the overall Busan regional economy impacts of the Korea-China FTA. We analyzed the quantitative effects of an FTA by using microeconomic concept. The Korea-China FTA will have positive effects on the overall industry in Busan. Therefore, Busan regional industries exports and imports are expected to grow. Busan is worried the deal would pave the way for imports of cheap Chinese agricultural products, hurting the nation's already fragile agricultural sector. In contrast, Busan's manufacturing sector is expected to see its surplus rise. In sum, we think the FTA will bring benefit to the whole industry in Busan Regional economy because it accelerates development of the industries by trade and investment along with comparative advantage.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.44 no.2
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• pp.109-126
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• 2019

Import refusals can be considered a new method of non-tariff barriers. This study aims to analyze reputation spillover effects on fish and fishery products imported from ASEAN countries to the U.S. FDA. The supply of aquatic products is not stable due to various factors such as reduction of fish stocks and climate change. Fish is a basic food ingested directly, but there are many ways to control the safety of aquatic products. ASEAN countries account for about 20% of U.S.imports in fish and fishery products. For Southeast Asian countries, fish and fishery products comprise a high proportion of exports revenue. Despite the large share of exports to the U.S., Southeast Asia countries have been receiving many import refusals from the United States. In this study, a theoretical model for examining import refusals is suggested using the negative binomial counting process. The reputation spillover effect, was divided into two spillover effects of 'neighbor reputation' and 'sector reputation'. Results show that there exists a neighbor reputation spillover effect. It can be said if there was a import refusal of the same product from neighboring countries in the preceding year, the home country have a possibility to experience import refusals of the same product. Therefore, it is interpreted that neighboring countries have good standard compliance can help home countries to effectively reach the target markets. Our findings have a important policy implication for ASEAN exporters of fish and fishery products.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.44 no.1
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• pp.177-191
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• 2019

Global trade protectionism has increased further and U.S. priorities and protectionism have strengthened since Trump took office in 2017. Trump administration is actively implementing tariff measures based on U.S. domestic trade laws rather than the WTO rules and regulations. In particular, the American government has recently been imposing high tariffs due to national security and imposing economic sanctions on other countries' imports. According to the U.S. Trade Expansion Act Section 232, the American government imposed additional tariffs on steel and aluminum imports to WTO member countries such as China, India, and EU etc. on march 15, 2018. Thus, this study aims to investigate whether the U.S. Trade Expansion Act Section 232 is consistent with GATT/WTO rules by comparing the legal basis of US / China / WTO regulations related to Section 232 of the U.S. Trade Expansion Act, and gives some suggestions for responding to the Section 232 measure. As the Section 232 measure exceeded the scope of GATT's Security Exceptions regulation and is very likely to be understood as a safeguard measure. If so, the American government is deemed to be in breach of WTO's regulations, such as the most-favored-nation treatment obligations and the duty reduction obligations. In addition, American government is deemed to be failed to meet the conditions of initiation of safeguard measure and violated the procedural requirements such as notification and consultation. In order to respond to these U.S. protection trade measures, all affected countries should actively use the WTO multilateral system to prevent unfair measures. Also, it is necessary to revise the standard jurisdiction of the dispute settlement body and to explore the balance of the WTO Exception clause so that it can be applied strictly. Finally, it would be necessary for Chinese exporters to take a counter-strategy under such trade pressure.

• Journal of the Korea Fashion and Costume Design Association
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• v.24 no.2
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• pp.85-95
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• 2022

This study aimed to clarify relationships between the westernization of military uniform systems and changes in the textile import industry during the Eulmi reforms of clothing regulation. For the goal, the study investigated the content and features of that had been enacted under the Eulmi reforms. It also examined the status of the textile import industry at the time, especially in relation to outer garments such as jackets or Eui, trousers or Go, and overcoats. Moreover, this study inspected how the above westernization changed the textile import industry. More specifically, the research analyzed the content of based on articles from the then state newsletter or 『Gwanbo』, and the then cabinet meeting or Euijeongbu's proceedings or 『Euiju』. Concerning the textile import industry, this study looked into relevant descriptions and trade statistics from 『KOPEИ(Hankukji)』, and analyzed changes in that industry in connection with the introduction of Western military uniform systems. As a result, this study found that increased imports of cotton fabrics during the Eulmi reforms of clothing regulation was correlated with surging demand for shirt or lining materials and increase in the use of Myeonyung following military uniform westernization. Similarly, an increase in silk fabric imports was an outcome of increased demand for lining materials. Also, the import growth of woolen fabrics was seemingly attributed to the use of Heuknasa and Heukyung as basic materials of military uniforms. Thus, military uniforms began to be made of fabrics, which hadn't been used before in the wake of westernization. This development brought changes in the textile import industry, which is supported by textile import statistics of the time. In conclusion, the westernization of military uniform systems under the Eulmi reforms of clothing regulation was a significant factor that changed the industry.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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• v.13 no.2
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• pp.183-195
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• 2022

Purpose - The study attempted to analyze how the U.S.-China trade dispute affects a highly trade-dependent South Korea. Currently, major domestic and international institutions have issued a number of conflicting predictions that the trade dispute between China and the United States will have a positive and negative impact on South Korea. Accordingly, the present study attempted to analyze using actual data. Design/methodology/approach - The analysis was conducted using actual import and export data from the United States and China and actual import and export data from the United States and China from South Korea. The analysis measured the number and amount of imports and exports by year and month, and the rate of increase and decrease. We also looked at trade dispute days, import and export outcomes and what the impact was. In addition, as a result of the US-China trade dispute, the amount of change in Korea's imports and exports was analyzed. Findings - Empirical analysis shows that South Korea's exports to the United States and China have increased. The analysis results are as follows. First, exports to the United States increased by 5.65% in 2018 and 6.45% in 2019 compared to 2017. Second, exports to China surged 12.34% in 2018 compared to 2017. This increase in South Korea's exports to the United States and its mass exports to the United States shows that South Korea has benefited from the trade dispute between the United States and China. Research implications or Originality - South Korea, which is highly trade-dependent, has been heavily affected by the U.S.-China trade dispute. Various predictions are made about this. The analysis showed that South Korea's export volume has increased. In the end, the effect of the trade transition to the 3rd country did not occur. Rather, the U.S.-China trade dispute appears to have helped South Korea.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.46 no.3
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• pp.135-149
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• 2021

This study analyzes the economic effect through the use of the RCEP direct transport rules, and suggests the necessacity of logistics efficiency and policy alternatives. The advantage of the hub network has been widely applied to the international logistics system, but there is a limit in the FTA logistics system in which goods must be directly transported between two contracting parties. Therefore, based on the new RCEP direct transport rules and the theoretical review on the possibility of an FTA logistics hub, FTA logistics efficiency improvement is estimated. This study quantitatively estimated the economic effect of direct transportation, unlike the previous studies, which were limited to the analysis of judicial precedents or surveys. GTAP model was used through five scenarios according to the impact of the RCEP tariff cut and the FTA logistics hub establishment in Singapore or Korea. As a result of the analysis, Korea's trade volume increased by 0.38% of exports and 1.63% of imports, and RCEP would increase exports by 0.27% and imports by 0.42%. In particular, the establishment of an FTA logistics hub (0.71%) was found to have a greater effect on the improvement of terms of trade than a tariff cut (0.12%), confirming the necessity of establishing an FTA logistics hub in RCEP. As a policy proposal, the institutional support of the customs authorities for the use of RCEP, the expansion of the free trade area where BWT traded cargo can be stored, and the establishment of a system for issuing back-to-back certificates of origin with approved exporters.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• v.27 no.5
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• pp.153-166
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• 2023

Purpose - This research empirically analyzes the influence of economic policy uncertainty and free trade agreements (FTAs) on bilateral trade volumes between Korea and its trading partners. The study investigates whether fluctuations in the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (EPUI) for both Korea and its trading partners significantly impact trade volumes and whether the implementation of FTAs mitigates these effects. Design/methodology - The study employs dynamic panel data analysis using the system generalized method of moments (system GMM) estimation method to achieve its research objectives. It utilizes country-month-level panel data, including the EPUI, trade volume between Korea and its trading partner countries, and other pertinent variables. The use of system GMM allows for the control of potential endogeneity issues and the incorporation of country-specific and time-specific effects. Findings - The analysis yields significant results regarding the impact of economic policy uncertainty on Korea's exports and imports, particularly before the implementation of FTAs. An increase in the EPUI of trading partners leads to a notable increase in Korea's exports to them. Conversely, an increase in Korea's EPUI negatively affects its imports from trading partners. However, post-FTA implementation, the influence of each country's EPUI on trade volume is neutralized, with no significant difference observed. Originality/value - This research contributes to the existing literature by providing empirical evidence on the interaction effects between economic policy uncertainty and FTAs on bilateral trade volumes. The study's uniqueness lies in its examination of how FTAs mitigate the impact of economic uncertainty on trade relations between countries. The findings underscore the importance of trade agreements as mechanisms to address economic risks and promote international trade relations. In a world where global market uncertainties persist, these insights can aid policymakers in Korea and other countries in enhancing their trade cooperation strategies and navigating challenges posed by evolving economic landscapes.

• Smart Media Journal
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• v.12 no.11
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• pp.134-144
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• 2023

Nowadays, Deep Learning (DL) technology is being used in several government departments. South Korea imports a lot of seafood. If the demand for fishery products is not accurately predicted, then there will be a shortage of fishery products and the price of the fishery product may rise sharply. So, South Korea's Ministry of Ocean and Fisheries is attempting to accurately predict seafood imports using deep learning. This paper introduces the solution for the fish import prediction in South Korea using the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) method. It was found that there was a huge gap between the sum of consumption and export against the sum of production especially in the case of two species that are Hairtail and Pollock. An import prediction is suggested in this research to fill the gap with some advanced Deep Learning methods. This research focuses on import prediction using Machine Learning (ML) and Deep Learning methods to predict the import amount more precisely. For the prediction, two Deep Learning methods were chosen which are Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM). Moreover, the Machine Learning method was also selected for the comparison between the DL and ML. Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) was selected for the error measurement which shows the difference between the predicted and actual values. The results obtained were compared with the average RMSE scores and in terms of percentage. It was found that the LSTM has the lowest RMSE score which showed the prediction with higher accuracy. Meanwhile, ML's RMSE score was higher which shows lower accuracy in prediction. Moreover, Google Trend Search data was used as a new feature to find its impact on prediction outcomes. It was found that it had a positive impact on results as the RMSE values were lowered, increasing the accuracy of the prediction.

• Journal of Korean Society of Occupational and Environmental Hygiene
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.242-253
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• 1998

South Korea has been producing asbestos over 60 years. The use of asbestos was over 50 years for production of asbestos slate and 27 years for asbestos friction materials including asbestos textile and brake-lining. Thus, it can be supposed that asbestos related diseases such as asbestosis, lung cancer and mesothelioma could be found in the vulnerable workers exposed to asbestos in 1955-1975, given the average latency period of 10-30 years. Asbestos was produced primarily by Japanese during World War II In Korea. The production of chrysotile peaked to 4,815 tons in 1944. From 1978 to 1984, 10,000 tons of asbestos were produced annually. However, the production was interrupted by raising labor costs and extinction of mine reserves, and finally they had to depend on import for the need of asbestos. In 1945, there were 16 asbestos mines, in total, with the addition of new asbestos mines in South Korea. Imports of asbestos was increased from 74,000 tons to 95,000 tons during the period of 1976 - 1992. But the imports was reduced to 88,000 tons in 1995. Since, in addition to the import of asbestos itself, the imports of asbestos products were increased as well and the accumulation of asbestos reached to 30,000 tons during the period of 1964 to 1993. In 1965, there was only one asbestos company with 207 employees. But the size of asbestos industry has been expanded so much that 118 asbestos companies could be found in 1993 with 1,476 workers. However, there was no record on the survey of asbestos concentration to which workers were exposed in any companies in 1983. The record of the air-borne concentration of the asbestos in textile working places in 1984 showed 6.7 fibers/cc by geometric mean(GM), but it was reduced to 1.2 fibers/cc in 1993. GMs of asbestos in working places for construction materials and asbestos textiles were also decreased from 1.7 fibers/cc to 0.55 fibers/cc during the period of 1984 - 1996.