• Title/Summary/Keyword: log-return

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A NOTE ON THE RETURN TIME OF STURMIAN SEQUENCES

  • Kim, Dong Han
    • Korean Journal of Mathematics
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.301-307
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    • 2008
  • Let $R_n$ be the the first return time to its initial n-word. Then the Ornstein-Weiss first return time theorem implies that log$R_n$ divided by n converges to entropy. We consider the convergence of log$R_n$ for Sturmian sequences which has the lowest complexity. In this case, we normalize the logarithm of the first return time by log n. We show that for any numbers $1{\leq}{\alpha},\;{\beta}{\leq}{\infty}$, there is a Sturmian sequence of which limsup is ${\alpha}$ and liminf is $1/{\beta}$.

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Comparison of log-logistic and generalized extreme value distributions for predicted return level of earthquake (지진 재현수준 예측에 대한 로그-로지스틱 분포와 일반화 극단값 분포의 비교)

  • Ko, Nak Gyeong;Ha, Il Do;Jang, Dae Heung
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.33 no.1
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    • pp.107-114
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    • 2020
  • Extreme value distributions have often been used for the analysis (e.g., prediction of return level) of data which are observed from natural disaster. By the extreme value theory, the block maxima asymptotically follow the generalized extreme value distribution as sample size increases; however, this may not hold in a small sample case. For solving this problem, this paper proposes the use of a log-logistic (LLG) distribution whose validity is evaluated through goodness-of-fit test and model selection. The proposed method is illustrated with data from annual maximum earthquake magnitudes of China. Here, we present the predicted return level and confidence interval according to each return period using LLG distribution.

Structural Change in the Price-Dividend Ratio and Implications on Stock Return Prediction Regression

  • Lee, Ho-Jin
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.183-206
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    • 2007
  • The price-dividend ratio is one of the most frequently used financial variables to predict long-horizon stock return. However, the persistency of the price-dividend ratio is found to cause the spuriousness of the stock return prediction regression. The stable relationship between the stock price and the dividend, however, seems to weaken after World War II and to experience structural break. In this paper, we identify a structural change in the cointegrating relationship between the log of the stock price and the log of the dividend. Confirming a structural break in 1962, we subdivide the sample and apply the fully modified estimator to correct for the nonstationarity of the regressor. With the subdivided sample, we exercise the nonparametric bootstrap procedure to derive the empirical distribution of the test statistics and fail to find return predictability in each subsample period.

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A NEW VERSION OF FIRST RETURN TIME TEST OF PSEUDORANDOMNESS

  • Kim, Dong-Han
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.109-118
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    • 2008
  • We present a new version of the first return time test for pseudorandomness. Let $R_n$ be the first return time of initial n-block with overlapping. An algorithm to calculate the probability distribution of the first return time $R_n$ for each starting block is presented and used to test pseudorandom number generators. The standard Z-test for log $R_n$ is applied to test the pseudorandom number generators.

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A 94-GHz Phased Array Antenna Using a Log-Periodic Antenna on a GaAs Substrate

  • Uhm, Won-Young;Ryu, Keun-Kwan;Kim, Sung-Chan
    • Journal of information and communication convergence engineering
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.81-85
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    • 2015
  • A 94-GHz phased array antenna using a log-periodic antenna has been developed on a GaAs substrate. The developed phased array antenna comprises four log-periodic antennas, a phase shifter, and a Wilkinson power divider. This antenna was fabricated using the standard microwave monolithic integrated circuit (MMIC) process including an air bridge for unipolar circuit implementations on the same GaAs substrate. The total chip size of the fabricated phased array antenna is 4.8 mm × 4.5 mm. Measurement results showed that the fabricated phased array antenna had a very wide band performance from 80 GHz to 110 GHz with return loss characteristics better than -10 dB. In the center frequency of 94 GHz, the fabricated phased array antenna showed a return loss of -16 dB and a gain of 4.43 dBi. The developed antenna is expected to be widely applied in many applications at W-band frequency.

Parameter Estimation and Confidence Limits for the Log-Gumbel Distribution (대수(對數)-Gumbel 확률분포함수(確率分布函數)의 매개변수(媒介變數) 추정(推定)과 신뢰한계(信賴限界) 유도(誘導))

  • Heo, Jun Haeng
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.151-161
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    • 1993
  • The log-Gumbel distribution in real space is defined by transforming the conventional log-Gumbel distribution in log space. For this model, the parameter estimation techniques are applied based on the methods of moments, maximum likelihood and probability weighted moments. The asymptotic variances of estimator of the quantiles for each estimation method are derived to find the confidence limits for a given return period. Finally, the log-Gumbel model is applied to actual flood data to estimate the parameters, quantiles and confidence limits.

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Squared Log-return and TGARCH Model : Asymmetric Volatility in Domestic Time Series (제곱수익률 그래프와 TGARCH 모형을 이용한 비대칭 변동성 분석)

  • Park, J.A.;Song, Y.J.;Baek, J.S.;Hwang, S.Y.;Choi, M.S.
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.487-497
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    • 2007
  • As is pointed out by Gourieroux (1997), the volatility effects in financial time series vary according to the signs of the return rates and therefore asymmetric Threshold-GARCH (TGARCH, henceforth) processes are natural extensions of the standard GARCH toward asymmetric volatility modeling. For preliminary detection of asymmetry in volatility, we suggest graphs of squared-log-returns for various financial time series including KOSPI, KOSDAQ and won-Euro exchange rate. Next, asymmetric TGARCH(1,1) model fits are provided in comparisons with standard GARCH(1.1) models.

Estimating Paddy Rice Evapotranspiration of 10-Year Return Period Drought Using Frequency Analysis (빈도 분석법을 이용한 논벼의 한발 기준 10년 빈도 작물 증발산량 산정)

  • Yoo, Seung-Hwan;Choi, Jin-Yong;Jang, Min-Won
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.49 no.3
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    • pp.11-20
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    • 2007
  • Estimation of crop consumptive use is a key term of agricultural water resource systems design and operation. The 10-year return period drought has special aspects as a reference period in design process of irrigation systems in terms of agricultural water demand analysis so that crop evapotranspiration (ETc) about the return period also has to be analyzed to assist understanding of crop water requirement of paddy rice. In this study, The ETc of 10-year return period drought was computed using frequency analysis by 54 meteorological stations. To find an optimal probability distribution, 8 types of probability distribution function were tested by three the goodness of fit tests including ${\chi}^2$(Chi-Square), K-S (Kolmogorov-Smirnov) and PPCC (Probability Plot Correlation Coefficient). Optimal probability distribution function was selected the 2-parameter Log-Normal (LN2) distribution function among 8 distribution functions. Using the two selected distribution functions, the ETc of 10-year return period drought was estimated for 54 meteorological stations and compared with prior study results suggested by other researchers.

Extreme Value Analysis of Metocean Data for Barents Sea

  • Park, Sung Boo;Shin, Seong Yun;Shin, Da Gyun;Jung, Kwang Hyo;Choi, Yong Ho;Lee, Jaeyong;Lee, Seung Jae
    • Journal of Ocean Engineering and Technology
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    • v.34 no.1
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    • pp.26-36
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    • 2020
  • An extreme value analysis of metocean data which include wave, wind, and current data is a prerequisite for the operation and survival of offshore structures. The purpose of this study was to provide information about the return wave, wind, and current values for the Barents Sea using extreme value analysis. Hindcast datasets of the Global Reanalysis of Ocean Waves 2012 (GROW2012) for a waves, winds and currents were obtained from the Oceanweather Inc. The Gumbel distribution, 2 and 3 parameters Weibull distributions and log-normal distribution were used for the extreme value analysis. The least square method was used to estimate the parameters for the extreme value distribution. The return values, including the significant wave height, spectral peak wave period, wind speed and current speed at surface, were calculated and it will be utilized to design offshore structures to be operated in the Barents Sea.

A study on the Flood Frequency Analyzed in Consideration of Low Outliers. (Low Outliers를 고려한 홍수빈도분석에 관한 연구)

  • 이순혁;홍성표;박명근
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.30 no.4
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    • pp.62-70
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    • 1988
  • This study was conducted to solve the problems for the unsuitable parameters and the uncertainty of design flood can be appeared by low outliers were inclined to the lower part from the trend of the balance of the data. Derivation of reasonable design flood was attempted finally by modification of low outliers with analysis of flood frequency by means of Log Pearson Type Ill distribution. Three subwatersheds were selected as studying basins with the annual maximum series including low outliers along Geum River basin. The results through this study were analyzed and summarized as follows. 1. Log Pearson Type In distribution was confirmed as a reasonable one by X$^2$ goodness of fit test at Gong Ju, Gyu Am, og Cheon watershed along Geum River basin. 2. Probable flood flows for each watershed were derivated by flood frequency curve with outliers. 3. Weighted skew coefficient for each watershed was calculated for the evaluation of freq- uency factor which is needed for the modification of low outlier. 4. It was confirrned that adjusted frequency curve has a lower tendency than that of deletion of low outlier in common at all watersheds. 5. Final probable flood flows were derivated by modification with evaluation of modified basic statistics for three watersheds. 6. In comparison with a frequency curve with modification and one with outlier, The former has a higher probable flood flow within three years of return periods than that of the latter, and vice versa over three years of return periods.

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