• Title/Summary/Keyword: lognormal 분포

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Fracture Network Analysis of Groundwater Folw in the Vicinity of a Large Cavern (분리열극개념을 이용한 지하공동주변의 지하수유동해석)

  • 강병무
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.3 no.2
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    • pp.125-148
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    • 1993
  • Groundwater flow in fractured rock masses is controlled by combined effects of fracture networks, state of geostafic stresses and crossflow between fractures and rock matrix. Furthermore the scaie dependent, anisotropic properties of hydraulic parameters results mainly from irregular paftems of fracture system, which can not be evaluated properly with the methods available at present. The basic assumpfion of discrete fracture network model is that groundwater flows only along discrete fractures and the flow paths in rock mass are determined by geometric paftems of interconnected fractures. The characteristics of fracture distribution in space and fracture hydraulic parameters are represented as the probability density functions by stochastic simulation. The discrete fracture network modelling was aftempted to characterize the groundwater flow in the vicinity of existing large cavems located in Wonjeong-ri, Poseung-myon, Pyeungtaek-kun. The fracture data of $1\textrm{km}^2$ area were analysed. The result indicates that the fracture sets evaluated from an equal area projection can be grouped into 6 sets and the fracture sizes are distributed in longnormal. The conductive fracture density of set 1 shows the highest density of 0.37. The groundwater inflow into a carvem was calculated as 29ton/day with the fracture transmissivity of $10^{-8}\textrm{m}^2/s$. When the fracture transmissivity increases in an order, the inflow amount estimated increases dramatically as much as fold, i.e 651 ton/day. One of the great advantages of this model is a forward modelling which can provide a thinking tool for site characterization and allow to handle the quantitative data as well as qualitative data.

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A Probabilistic Assessment of Human Health Risk from Arsenic-Contaminated Rice Grown Near The Mining Areas of Korea

  • Paik, Min-Kyoung;Kim, Won-Il;Yoo, Ji-Hyock;Kim, Jin-Kyoung;Im, Geon-Jae;Hong, Moo-Ki
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.143-147
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    • 2010
  • Chronic exposure to Arsenic (As) causes significant human health effects including various cancers. Total As concentrations from 300 polished rice samples cultivated near the mining areas in Korea were analyzed to estimate a probabilistic assessment of human health risk from As-contaminated rice. The mean of total As concentrations in rice was 0.09 mg/kg and lognormal distribution model was set for total As concentrations. Human health risk for As in rice was estimated using gender-specific rice consumption data and average daily dose (ADD). While cancer risk (CR) and hazard quotient (HQ) were calculated using oral cancer slope factor (OCSF) and Reference dose (RfD) suggested by the U.S. EPA. Mean of CR posed by total As was 2.16 (for male) and 1.83 (for female) per 10,000. The HQ for general population from rice cultivated near the mining areas in Korea was below 1 as the $50^{th}$ percentile of general population. However, less than 10% of general population consuming rice cultivated near the mining areas would exceed 1.0. This result is similar with those from each gender-specific group.

Evaluation of Capacity Spectrum Methods for Seismic Fragility Analysis of Bridges (교량의 지진 취약도 해석 시 사용되는 성능 스펙트럼 기법의 평가)

  • Kim, Sang-Hoon;Yi, Jin-Hak;Kim, Ho-Kyung
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.67-76
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    • 2004
  • This study presents the evaluation of CSM(Capacity Spectrum Method, ATC-40) in developing fragility curves for a sample concrete bridge. The CSM is originally developed as one of the simplified procedures for building structures, while this study adopts the CSM to develop fragility curves of bridge structures. Four(4) different approaches are demonstrated and the fragility curves developed are compared those by the nonlinear time history analysis. Fragility curves in this study are represented by lognormal distribution functions with two parameters and developed as a function of PGA. The sixty(60) ground acceleration time histories for the Los Angeles area developed for the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) SAC(SEAOC-ATC-CUREe) steel project are used for the bridge analysis. The comparison of fragility curves by the CSM with those by the time history analysis indicates that the agreement is excellent for one of the methods investigated in this study. In this respect. it is recommended that the demand spectrum might be improved according to the guidelines suggested in this study. However, this observation might not always apply, depending on the details of specific bridge characteristic

Demand analysis on new Mobile Telecommunication Terminal using Conjoint analysis and Mixed logit (컨조인트 분석과 혼합 로짓 모형을 이용한 차세대 무선 이동 통신 단말기의 수요 분석)

  • 김연배;이정동;고대영
    • Proceedings of the Korea Technology Innovation Society Conference
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    • pp.67-85
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    • 2003
  • 본 논문에서는 최근 통신 산업에서 중요한 쟁점으로 떠오르고 있는 단말기 무선이동 통신 단말기의 발전 방향을 소비자 선호에 기반하여 살펴보았다. 소비자 선호 정보를 얻기 위하여 컨조인트(conjoint) 분석 방법이 사용되었다. 컨조인트 방법은 가상의 대안들에 대한 응답자의 진술 선호에 기반을 두기 때문에 미래의 무선 이동통신 단말기에 대해 분석하는데 적합한 방법이다. 컨조인트 방법을 위한 설문은 대한민국 서울에서 445 명의 성인남녀를 대상으로 행해졌다. 소비자의 이질적인 선호를 알기 위해 혼합 로짓(mixed legit) 모형을 사용하였다. 추정은 최근 새로운 시뮬레이션 기법으로 떠오르고 있는 베이지안(Bayesian) 방법을 이용하였다. 선호의 분포 가정으로 기존의 일관적인 정규 분포 가정과 달리 가격 계수를 위하여 로그 정규(lognormal) 분포, 하이퀄리티 인터넷 특성과 PC 프로그램 호환 가능 여부의 계수들에 대해서 잘린 정규(censored normal) 분포를 가정 하였다. 추정 결과 무선 이동 통신 단말기의 각 속성들에 대한 응답자들간 선호가 크게 차이 나는 것을 알 수 있었다. 화면 크기의 경우에는 대부분의 소비자들이 현재 일반적인 핸드폰보다는 큰 화면을 선호한다는 것과 휴대성을 상당히 고려한다는 것을 간접적으로 알 수 있었다. 또한, 소비자들이 무선 이동 통신 단말기가 휴대 인터넷과 PC 프로그램 호환이 가능한지 여부에는 대부분 무관심하다는 것을 알 수 있었다. 본 논문의 결과는 차세대 무선 이동 통신 단말기의 속성 조합 시 고려해야 할 점과 휴대 인터넷 서비스의 방향에 대해 시사점을 줄 수 있을 것이다.각 73.44±0.87%, 72.88±0.25%의 함량이였다. 운동사육시간이 길어질수록 운동사육구에서는 수분함량이 운동5일째에는 73.56±0.22%였으며, 운동 20일에는 75.88±0.94%로 초기수분함량보다는 3%정도 증가하였다. 반면, 비운동사육구에서는 큰 변화를 나타내고 있지 않았다(p<0.05). 운동과 비운동시킨 참돔의 지질 함량의 변화는 운동시킨 참돔은 운동으로 인한 에너지 소비로 인하여 함량이 유의적으로 감소했으며(r=-0.35), 비운동사육구에서는 절식으로 인하여 지질함량이 감소하였다(r=-0.38). 파괴강도와 가장 밀접한 영향을 가지는 콜라겐은 운동과 비운동 모두 사육기간동안 큰 변화는 보이지 않았다. 초기의 파괴강도값은 1.45±0.02kg(운동사육구), 1.36±0.18kg(비운동사육구)이였으며 사육기간동안 운동사육구는 파괴강도값이 증가한 반면, 비운동수조에서는 참돔의 파괴강도는 사육기간동안 큰 유의차가 없었다. 각 성분간의 상관도를 살펴보면, 수분함량과 파괴강도는 상관성을 가졌으며, 지질함량과 파괴강도도 같은 경향은 나타내었다. 운동기간동안의 파괴강도와 콜라겐 사이에는 상관성의 거의 없었다. 이는 운동기간에 따른 파괴강도의 증가가 콜라겐의 함량의 증가보다는 지질함량의 감소와 수분함량의 증가와 같은 성분과의 상관성이 크다고 판단된다. 다음으로는, 운동횟수에 의한 영향으로써 운동시간을 1일 6시간으로 설정하여, 운동횟수를 결정하기 위하여 오전, 오후에 각 3시간씩 운동시키는 방법과 오전부터 6시간동안 운동시키는 두 방법을 이용하여 품질을 비교하였다. 각 조건에 따라 운동시킨 참돔의 수분함량을 나타낸 것으로, 2회(오전

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Probabilistic Exposure Assessment of Pesticide Residues in Agricultural Products in Gyeonggi-do (경기도내 유통 농산물 중 잔류농약의 확률론적 노출평가 연구)

  • Do, Young-Sook;Kim, Jung-Boem;Kang, Suk-Ho;Kim, Nan-Young;Eom, Mi-Na;Yoon, Mi-Hye
    • The Korean Journal of Pesticide Science
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.117-125
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    • 2013
  • A probabilistic exposure assessment was performed on the monitoring data of pesticides were assessed in agricultural products in Gyeonggi-do from 2006 to 2010. Chlorothalonil, chlorpyrifos, dicofol, endosulfan, EPN, ethoprophos, fenitrothion, methidathion, phenthoate and tebupirimfos were assessed. For this assessment, we used Monte Carlo simulation software and the distribution of concentration and intake were assumed to lognormal distribution by inputting mean and standard deviation. The hazard index (HI, %ADI) of average value and the $95^{th}$ percentile based on a probabilistic method were usually lower than those by a deterministic one. For the whole population, when non-detects data were assigned 0 mg/kg, HI of the average value and the $95^{th}$ percentile showed 0.05~0.70% and 0.11~1.94%, respectively. When nondetects data were assigned 0.005 mg/kg, HI of the average value and the $95^{th}$ percentile were 0.41~4.42% and 0.98~13.81%. For only consumers, when non-detects data were assigned 0 mg/kg, HI of the average value and the $95^{th}$ percentile were 1.24~10.16% and 3.72~33.81%, respectively. When non-detects data were assigned 0.005 mg/kg, HI of the average value and the $95^{th}$ percentile were 3.43~18.26% and 9.45~54.99%, respectively. Methidathion had highest values when both of 0 and 0.005 were assigned to non-detecs data for consumers only. This study showed that agricultural products in Gyeonggi-do were safe because they had less than 100 of HI (%ADI) based on probabilistic exposure assessment.