• Journal of Distribution Science
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• v.11 no.10
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• pp.73-79
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• 2013

Purpose - This study examines the impact of oil price volatility on economic activities in Korea. The new millennium has seen a deregulation in the crude oil market, which invited immense capital inflow into Korea. It has also raised oil price levels and volatility. Drawing on the recent theoretical literature that emphasizes the role of volatility, this paper attends to the asymmetric changes in economic growth in response to the oil price movement. This study further examines several key macroeconomic variables, such as interest rate, production, and inflation. We come to the conclusion that oil price volatility can, in some part, explain the structural changes. Research design, data, and methodology - We use two methodological frameworks in this study. First, in regards to the oil price uncertainty, we use an Exponential-GARCH (Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity: EGARCH) model estimate to elucidate the asymmetric effect of oil price shock on the conditional oil price volatility. Second, along with the estimation of the conditional volatility by the EGARCH model, we use the estimates in a VECM (Vector Error Correction Model). The study thus examines the dynamic impacts of oil price volatility on industrial production, price levels, and monetary policy responses. We also approximate the monetary policy function by the yield of monetary stabilization bond. The data collected for the study ranges from 1990: M1 to 2013: M7. In the VECM analysis section, the time span is split into two sub-periods; one from 1990 to 1999, and another from 2000 to 2013, due to the U.S. CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) deregulation on the crude oil futures that became effective in 2000. This paper intends to probe the relationship between oil price uncertainty and macroeconomic variables since the structural change in the oil market became effective. Results and Conclusions - The dynamic impulse response functions obtained from the VECM show a prolonged dampening effect of oil price volatility shock on the industrial production across all sub-periods. We also find that inflation measured by CPI rises by one standard deviation shock in response to oil price uncertainty, and lasts for the ensuing period. In addition, the impulse response functions allude that South Korea practices an expansionary monetary policy in response to oil price shocks, which stems from oil price uncertainty. Moreover, a comparison of the results of the dynamic impulse response functions from the two sub-periods suggests that the dynamic relationships have strengthened since 2000. Specifically, the results are most drastic in terms of industrial production; the impact of oil price volatility shocks has more than doubled from the year 2000 onwards. These results again indicate that the relationships between crude oil price uncertainty and Korean macroeconomic activities have been strengthened since the year2000, which resulted in a structural change in the crude oil market due to the deregulation of the crude oil futures.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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• 2015.10a
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• pp.253-255
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• 2015

Crude oil is the world's most actively traded commodity and also one of the most significant resources in the world. The impact of oil price volatility has great influences on macroeconomic activities. This presentation is to review and analyze the oil price fluctuation and to examine the effects especially on the offshore oil production and thereafter to look over the challenges and opportunities in this sector focusing on the petroleum logistics.

• The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
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• v.8 no.7
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• pp.7-12
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• 2017

Purpose - This research examines the short-run and long-run effect of external shocks (oil price and exchange rate) on domestic food price in Indonesia. Research design, data, and methodology - Three variables are used in this research. The variables are food price index, Rupiah's exchange rate of Indonesia, and crude oil price from 1998 until 2015 using Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Results - The increasing of oil price and the depreciation of Rupiah's rate push the domestic food price in long-run, but do not impact significantly in short- term. The response of food price to oil prices shock and exchange rate shock are positive and persistent throughout the entire sample period. The exchange rate and oil price shocks have a small proportion explaining for the fluctuations of food price index but increasing over time. Conclusions - The policymaker should concern on solving the problem of oil price increase and depreciation of exchange rate on Indonesia's food price as they are important factors that can affect the price stability. The government should not rely on food imports because the price is strongly influenced by the movements in the exchange rate.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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• v.14 no.1
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• pp.351-364
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• 2023

Purpose - This study examines the effects of Dubai oil price and the volatility on the asymmetry of domestic gasoline price adjustment. Additionally, the study investigates the effects of "Altteul" gas-station and tax-cut policies on asymmetry. Design/methodology/approach - Firstly, the study calculates proxies for asymmetry and volatility of each window(every 3-month) by error-correction model and GARCH(1, 1) using daily domestic gas price and Dubai oil price from 2008/04/15 to 2022/12/31. Secondly, the study investigates the effects of the increasing rate of Dubai oil price, volatility, "Altteul" gas-station and tax-cut policies on asymmetry. The autoregressive distributed lag regression model is employed for estimations. Findings - The study finds that changes in the increasing rate of Dubai oil price and both types of volatility of Dubai oil price increase asymmetry. While "Altteul" gas-station and tax-cut policies decrease asymmetry. Additionally, the study fails to find that asymmetry in the Korean gasoline market in the estimation with total observations. Research implications or Originality - An increase in Dubai oil price volatility means an increase in cost uncertainty for gas-station owners. Since cost uncertainty is a kind of financial risk, the increase in volatility reinforces the asymmetry. The study provides supporting evidence for the idea.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.35 no.9
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• pp.765-776
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• 2011

For container shipping company, fuel oil prise is a considerable expense. Since 2008, fuel oil prises have risen dramatically. An increasing fuel oil price in container shipping, in the short term, is only partially compensated through surcharges and may affect earnings negatively. This study discusses the impact of an increasing fuel oil price and capital costs for vessels on the Asia-Europe trade of 'H' Shipping Company. According to the result of 'H' carrier's operation in 2008, there were no cost differences between 8 and 9 vessels operations in case of fuel oil price with USD 169/tons while adopting USD 31,818 as a fixed cost. We can expect that the fuel oil price will not go lower than USD 200/Ton on the basis of current high oil price phenomenon. When the fuel oil price is over USD 200/ton, 9 vessel operation is more economic than 8 vessel operation even if the fixed cost is over USD 35,000.

• The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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• v.31 no.1
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• pp.115-133
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• 2000

The policy of suppling tax-exempt fishery oil in Korea has a history of almost 40 years, which was initiated by the National Federation of Fisheries Cooperatives in 1965. In 1999 the volume of fishery oil supplied to the earning fishermen and fishing entrepreneurs amounted to 8,390 thousand DM, 500 billion won in total. This paper analyzes the oil supplying system to fishermen in Korea and shows that the structural obstacles to the stable provision of fishery oil lies in the ineffective bargaining power (fixing price). Provided that the NFFC as a buyer, which is not equipped with the storage facilities for oil bids for a unit-price contract of fishery oil, there exists a possibility of collusion among 5 local oil refineries corporations to influence the oil price, making it difficult to reach a resonable price of oil. Though the international bids and direct imports following the liberalization of oil imports would help lower the unit price, purchasing and importing the oil out of season at a lower price would not be guaranteed without the oil storage facilities. Furthermore, the current supply system of oil is quite vulnerable to the extraneous factors and, say when the oil price soars unpredictably, it is almost impossible to supply low - priced fishery oil to fishermen. The National Federation of Fisheries Association of Japan(Zengyoren), for instance, possesses 10 oil storage facilities, which had been built across the country during the last 20 years (1964-1984). The storage capacity of these facilities reaches 0.6million DM(by kind, 0.56million DM for A heavy oil, 38thousand D/M kerosene, 5thousand D/M for diesel fuel oil). Allowing no intermediary of production associations(fisheries cooperatives) the NFFA's capacity for keeping oil in reserve rises much higher. As these storage facilities can keep the oil amounting to as much as of 70 days demand in reserve, a stable supply of fishery oil on favorable terms is secured. In contrast with Japan case, unequipped with the storage facilities for fishery oil, Korea does not have much bargaining power for bringing down the price of fishery oil. To make matters worse, the oil storing capacity of the member cooperatives is the volume of only 8 days demand. In case the oil price rises, it is almost impossible to supply the oil to the fishermen at a price lower than the price risen.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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• v.13 no.2
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• pp.39-50
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• 2022

Purpose - The purpose of this study is to examine how Korea's macroeconomic factors, such as GDP, CPI, Export, Import, Unemployment rate and USD/KRW exchange rate, are affected by the oil price shocks. Design/methodology/approach - This study used monthly and quarterly time-series data of each variable for the period 1983 to 2022, consisting of two sub-periods, to employ Granger causality test and GARCH method in order to identify the role of the oil price movement in macroeconomic factors in Korea. Findings - Korea's currency rate to the US dollar is negatively correlated with the price change of crude oil while the GDP change is positively correlated with the price change of crude oil with strong relationship between Export and Import in particular. The exchange rate and GDP growth are believed to be not correlated with the oil price change for the pre-GFC period. According to the Granger causality test, the price change in crude oil has a causal impact on CPI, Export and Import while other factors are relatively slightly affected. Transmission effect from the oil price to Export is found and there also exists volatility spillover from oil price to economic variables under examination. Comparing two sub-periods, CPI and Export volatility responds negatively to shocks in the oil price for the pre-GFC period while volatility of CPI and Unemployment reacts positively to the oil price shocks for the post-GFC period. Research implications or Originality - The findings of this study could be helpful for both domestic and international investors to build their portfolio for the risk management since rising WTI price can be interpreted as a result of global economic growth and ensuing increase in the worldwide demand of the crude oil. Consequently, the national output is expected to increase and the currency is also expected to be strong in the long run.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.43 no.2
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• pp.69-86
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• 2018

The paper studies the degree of international price dispersion for 300 individual goods and services between cities of three country groups over 1999 and 2013, focusing on the role of oil prices in generating deviations from the law of one price. We find that while oil prices did not contribute to the trend in cross-country price dispersion, it does account for within-country price dispersion. Once the oil price effect is subtracted out, the remaining price dispersion between U.S. cities no longer exhibits a noticeable upward trend. If oil prices increase transportation costs, they should increase the deviations from the law of one price, raising price dispersion. Our findings indicate that this effect is more pronounced within a country, while factors such as elasticity of substitution and other trade barriers are likely to matter more in price dispersion across borders. We view our results as complementary to those that emphasize the role of time-varying factors in accounting for price dispersion.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.4 no.2
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• pp.19-23
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• 2017

It is undisputable that crude oil and its price fluctuations are major components that affect most of the countries' economies. Recent studies have demonstrated that beside the impact that crude oil price fluctuations have on common macroeconomic indicators like gross domestic product (GDP), inflation rates, exchange rates, unemployment rate, etc., it also has a strong influence on stock markets and their performance. This relationship has been examined in a number of settings, but it is yet to be unraveled in the Omani context. Accordingly, the main purpose of this study is to examine the possible effect of the oil price fluctuations on stock price movements. The study applies Toda and Yamamoto's (1995) Granger non-causality test on the daily Oman stock index (Muscat Securities Market Index) and oil prices between the period of 2 January 2003 and 13 March 2016. The results indicated that the oil price fluctuations have a significant impact on stock index movements. However, the stock price movements do not have a significant impact on oil prices. These findings have significant implications not only for the Omani economy but also for the economy of similar countries, particularly in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. The latter should carefully consider their policies and strategies regarding crude oil production and the generated income allocation as it might potentially affect the financial markets performance in these countries.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.44 no.1
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• pp.75-86
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• 2019

This study performs a factor analysis that affects the bunker oil price using the Co-integration model and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). For this purpose, we use data from Clarkson and the analysis results show 17.6% decrease in bunker oil price when the amount of crude oil production increases at 1.0%, 10.3% increase in bunker oil price when the seaborne trade volume increases at 1.0%, 1.0% decrease in bunker oil price when total volume of vessels increases at 1.0%, and 0.003% increase in bunker oil price when 1.0% increase in world GDP, respectively. This study is meaningful in that this study estimates the speed of convergence to long-term equilibrium and identifies the price adjust mechanism which naturally exists in bunker oil market. And it is expected that the future study can provide statistically more meaningful econometric results if it can obtain data during more long-periods and use more various kinds of explanatory variables.