• 수산경영론집
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• 제41권1호
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• pp.25-52
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• 2010

The purpose of this paper is to suggest major strategies and necessary new projects for the medium- and long-term development of the Korean Fisheries Outlook Project. To suggest the Korean Fisheries Outlook Center with the above purpose, this paper employs Analytic Hierarchy Process analysis based on surveys obtained by special groups related with the KFOP. The survey is broadly composed of two goals; the medium- and long-term development directions and setting up of new furtherance projects. Each goal has upper and lower strategies respectively. The first goal, the medium- and long-term development directions, has four factors as upper strategies. The upper strategies are composed of accuracy, efficiency, timeliness, and political effectiveness of the fisheries outlook information. In addition, each upper strategy has three lower strategies respectively. For example, accuracy of the fisheries outlook information includes strength of data collection function, strength of satellite photography function, and strength of data analysis function. The second goal, setting up of new furtherance projects, has three factors as upper strategies. The upper strategies consist of accuracy promotion of outlook information using high-technique, field expansion of outlook species, and strength of analyzing function on oversea fisheries information. Each upper strategy has three lower strategies respectively. For instant, accuracy promotion of outlook information using high-technique has strength of information analysis function covered from production to consumption, strength of satellite information function, and structure of forecasting model on demand and supply by outlook species. The above upper and lower strategies were analytically drawn out through insightful interviews with special groups such as officials of the government, presidents of the producer and distributor groups, and researchers of the Korea Maritime Institute and other research institutes. As a result of AHP analysis, first, priorities of upper strategies with the medium- and long-term development directions are analyzed as accuracy, timeliness, political effectiveness, and efficiency in order. Also, priorities of all lower strategies reflecting priorities of upper strategies are examined as includes strength of data collection function on the fisheries outlook information, delivery of rapid information on outlook products for all people interested, strength of data analysis function on fisheries outlook information, strength of consumption outlook function on fish products, and strength of early warning system for domestic fish products in order. Second, priorities of upper strategies with the setting up of new furtherance projects are analyzed as accuracy promotion of outlook information using high-technique, field expansion of outlook species, and strength of analysis function on oversea fisheries information in order. In addition, priorities of all lower strategies reflecting priorities of upper strategies are examined as building up of forecasting model on demand and supply by outlook species, strength of information analysis function covering all steps from production to consumption, expansion of consumption outlook for consumers, strength of movement analysis function of oversea farming industry, and outlook expansion of farming species.

• 농업과학연구
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• 제48권4호
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• pp.797-806
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• 2021

As the number of scaled-up ranches increased and agile responses to market changes became possible, decision-making by Hanwoo cattle farms also began to affect short-term shipments. Considering the changing environment of the Hanwoo supply market and the response speed of producers, it is necessary quickly to grasp the forecast ahead of time and to respond accordingly in an effort to stabilize supply and demand in the Hanwoo market. In this study, short-term forecasting model centered on the supply of Hanwoo was established. The analysis conducted here indicates that the slaughter of Hanwoo males increases by 0.248 as the number of beef cattle raised over 29 months of age in the previous month increases by one, and 0.764 Hanwoo females were slaughtered under average conditions for every Hanwoo male slaughtered. With regard to time, the slaughtering of Hanwoo was higher in January and August, which are months known for holiday food preparation activities for the New Year and Chuseok in Korea, respectively. Simulations indicated that errors were within 10% in all simulations performed through the Hanwoo supply model. Accordingly, it is considered that the estimation results from the supply model devised in this study are reliable and that the model has good structural stability.

• 농업과학연구
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• 제49권3호
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• pp.679-690
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• 2022

As the supply and demand of pork has become a significant concern in Korea, controlling it has become a critical challenge for the industry. However, compared to the demand for pork, which has relatively stable consumption, it is not easy to maintain a stable supply. As the preparation of measures for a supply-demand crisis response and supply control in the pig industry has emerged as an important task, it has become necessary to establish a stable supply model and create an appropriate manual. In this study, a pork supply prediction model is constructed using reported data from the pig traceability system. Based on the derived results, a method for determining the supply-demand crisis stage using a statistical approach was proposed. From the results of the analysis, working days, African swine fever, heat wave, and Covid-19 were shown to affect the number of pigs graded in the market. A test of the performance of the model showed that both in-sample error rate and out-sample error rate were between 0.3 - 7.6%, indicating a high level of predictive power. Applying the forecast, the distribution of the confidence interval of the predicted value was established, and the supply crisis stage was identified, evaluating supply-demand conditions.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제52권4호
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• pp.279-289
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• 2019

가뭄재해는 다른 재해와 다르게 광범위한 공간에 걸쳐서 충분한 강우가 발생하기 전까지 오랜 기간 동안 발생되는 특성이 있다. 위성 영상은 시공간적으로 지속적인 강수량 관측을 제공할 수 있다. 본 연구는 위성 영상 기반의 강수자료를 활용하여 기상학적 가뭄 전망 모형을 개발하였다. PERSIANN_CDR, TRMM 3B42와 GPM IMERG 영상을 활용하여 강수 자료를 구축한 뒤, 표준강수지수(SPI)를 기반으로 기상학적 가뭄을 정의하였다. 과거의 가뭄 정보와 물리적 예측 모형 기반의 가뭄 예측 결과를 결합할 수 있는 베이지안 네트워크 기반 가뭄 예측 기법을 이용하여 확률론적 가뭄 예측 결과를 생산하였으며, 가뭄 예측결과를 가뭄 전망 의사결정 모형에 적용하여 가뭄 전망 결과를 도출하였다. 가뭄 전망 정보는 가뭄 발생, 지속, 종결, 가뭄 없음의 4단계로 구분하였다. 본 연구의 가뭄 전망 결과는 ROC 분석을 통하여 물리적 예측 모형인 다중모형 앙상블(MME)을 활용한 가뭄 전망 결과와 전망 성능을 비교하였다. 그 결과, 2~3개월 가뭄 전망에 대한 가뭄 발생 및 지속의 단계에서는 MME 모형보다 높은 전망성능을 보여주었다.

• 농업과학연구
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• 제48권4호
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• pp.815-829
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• 2021

The purpose of this study is to construct a flatfish outlook model that is consistent with the "Fisheries outlook" monthly publication of the fisheries outlook center of the Korea Maritime Institute (KMI). In particular, it was designed as a partial equilibrium model limited to flatfish items, but a model was constructed with a dynamic ecological equation model (DEEM) system, considering biological breeding and shipping times. Due to limited amounts of monthly data, the market equilibrium price was calculated using a recursive model method as the inverse demand. The main research results and implications are as follows. As a result of estimating young fish inventory levels, the coefficient of the young fish inventory in the previous period was estimated to be 0.03, which was not statistically significant. Because there is distinct seasonality, when estimating the breeding outcomes, the elasticity of breeding in the previous period was found to exceed 0.7, and it increased more as the weight of the fish increased, in addition, the shipment coefficient gradually increased as the weight increased, which means that as the fish weight increased, the shipment compared to the breeding volume increased. When estimating shipments, the elasticity of breeding in previous period was estimated to respond elastically as the weight increases. The price flexibility coefficient of the total supply was inelastically estimated to be -0.19. Finally, according to a model predictive power test, the Theil U1 was estimated to be very low for all of the predictors, indicating excellent predictive power.

• 한국산학기술학회논문지
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• 제16권11호
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• pp.7781-7787
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• 2015

본 논문은 국내 양식 넙치 중장기 시장 규모 추정을 위해 구축된 수급전망모형을 개발한 내용과 이 모형을 이용하여 2015년-2017년 기간에 대해 시장 규모(수급 및 가격)를 예측한 내용을 소개하고 있다. 양식 넙치 수급전망모형은 단일품목 부분균형모형이며 동태 축차적 시뮬레이션 모형으로 개발되었고, 모형내 각 행태방정식은 계량경제학 방법을 이용하여 추정되었다. 중 장기 시장 규모 전망에 앞서 모형의 예측정확도는 RMSPE, MAPE, Theil의 불균등계수를 기준으로 검토되었다. 예측력 검토결과, 양식면적, 양성물량, 출하량, 도매가격은 모두 4% 이내의 양호한 오차율을 보였다. 국내 양식 넙치 시장 규모 전망결과, 생산량은 2015년 37,445톤, 2017년 42,561톤에 이를 것으로 전망되었고, 산지가격은 2015년 9,226원(1kg 기준), 2017년 10,191원될 것으로 전망되었다.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences
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• 제54권4호
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• pp.563-573
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• 2018

An Expert Seasonal Prediction System for operational Seasonal Outlook (ESPreSSO) is developed based on the APEC Climate Center (APCC) Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) dynamical prediction and expert-guided statistical downscaling techniques. Dynamical models have improved to provide meaningful seasonal prediction, and their prediction skills are further improved by various ensemble and downscaling techniques. However, experienced scientists and forecasters make subjective correction for the operational seasonal outlook due to limited prediction skills and biases of dynamical models. Here, a hybrid seasonal prediction system that grafts experts' knowledge and understanding onto dynamical MME prediction is developed to guide operational seasonal outlook in Korea. The basis dynamical prediction is based on the APCC MME, which are statistically mapped onto the station-based observations by experienced experts. Their subjective selection undergoes objective screening and quality control to generate final seasonal outlook products after physical ensemble averaging. The prediction system is constructed based on 23-year training period of 1983-2005, and its performance and stability are assessed for the independent 11-year prediction period of 2006-2016. The results show that the ESPreSSO has reliable and stable prediction skill suitable for operational use.

• 수산경영론집
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• 제53권4호
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• pp.15-26
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• 2022

This paper analyzed the price stabilization before and after the fisheries outlook project for seaweed, flatfish, and abalone. First, the stabilization effect was analyzed through the price variation coefficient before and after the observation project. In terms of the variation coefficient, there was no effect that the price was stabilized through the seaweed outlook project. However, it can be seen that flatfish and abalone have a price-stabilizing effect. Second, as a result of analyzing the price stabilization effect through the improved ARMA-T-GARCH model, it was confirmed that seaweed was not statistically significant while flatfish and abalone had a price stabilization effect by statistically significantly reducing volatility of real prices after the introduction of the fisheries outlook project. Third, as a result of analyzing the factors affecting price stability, it was found that the price of seaweed was stabilized after the WTO, but the Japanese earthquake expanded the price volatility. In the case of flatfish, it was analyzed that the price stabilized after the WTO and the Great Japanese Earthquake. Finally, the price of abalone has stabilized since the WTO and the Great Japanese Earthquake.

• 농업과학연구
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• 제49권4호
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• pp.833-843
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• 2022

Since the supply and demand of agricultural products are unstable, which causes instability in farm income and consumer prices, the government has sought to mitigate the problems caused by unstable supply and demand by generating and providing agricultural outlook information. However, research should be carried out to increase the quality and utilization of agricultural observation information, because the value of agricultural observation information increases only when more users use this information and apply it to their decisions. In this study, a survey was conducted targeting producers and experts who are users or potential users of agricultural outlook information, and the results were analyzed through quantitative model, specifically importance-performance analysis (IPA) and analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The results show that improvement of promptness was required among the seven items evaluated with regard to agricultural outlook. Also, measures for dissemination of agricultural outlook information and the contents of outlook information should be improved to increase its use. If the quality level and use of agricultural observation information are increased by reflecting the results of the above analysis, decision-making on the supply and demand of agricultural products in Korea will be improved, and it is thought that it will be possible to increase farm household income and stabilize consumer prices through stabilization of supply and demand of agricultural products.

• 한국산학기술학회논문지
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• 제15권3호
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• pp.1471-1477
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• 2014

본 논문은 제주 월동무의 중장기 수급전망을 위해 구축된 수급전망모형의 개발 내용과 이 모형을 이용하여 2014-2018년 기간에 대한 수급 및 가격을 전망한 내용을 소개하고 있다. 제주 월동무 수급전망모형은 개별 품목에 대해 구축된 부분균형모형이며, 모형내 각 방정식들은 계량경제학 방법을 이용하여 추정되었다. 중장기 전망에 앞서 시행된 모형의 예측력은 RMSPE, MAPE, Theil의 불균등계수를 기준으로 검토되었다. 예측력 검토결과, RMSPE 기준으로 재배면적, 단수, 생산량, 소비량은 4% 이내의 매우 우수한 오차율을 보였고, 도매가격은 오차율 10% 이내의 비교적 양호한 예측력을 보였다. 중장기 수급 및 가격 전망결과, 제주 월동무 재배면적은 2013년 5,145ha, 2018년 6,650ha에 이를 것으로 전망된다. 월동무 생산량은 2013년 334,434톤으로 추정되고, 2018년 433,310톤으로 전망된다.