• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
• /
• v.22 no.4
• /
• pp.755-764
• /
• 2011

In many companies field failure data is used to predict the future number of failures, especially when an unexpected failure mode happens to be a problem. It is because they want to predict the number of spare parts needed and the future quality warranty cost associated with the part based on the predictions of the future number of failures. In this paper field summary data is used to predict the future number of failures based on an appropriate distribution. Other types of data are also investigated to identify the appropriate distribution.

• The Transactions of the Korea Information Processing Society
• /
• v.7 no.12
• /
• pp.3821-3828
• /
• 2000

Many software projects collect grouped failure data (failures in some failure interval or in variable time interval) rather than individual failure times or failure count data during the testing or operational phase. This paper presents the neural network (NN) modeling that is dble to predict cumulative failures in the variable future time for grouped failure data. ANN's predictive ability can be affected by what it learns and in its ledming sequence. Eleven training regimes that represents the input-output of NN are considered. The best training regimes dre selected rJdsed on the next' step dvemge reldtive prediction error (AE) and normalized AE (NAE). The suggested NN models are compared with other well-known KN models and statistical software reliability growth models (SHGlvls) in order to evaluate performance, Experimental results show that the NN model with variable time interval information is necessary in order to predict cumulative failures in the variable future time interval.

• Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
• /
• v.26 no.1
• /
• pp.109-116
• /
• 2001

The detection of corporate failures is a subject that has been particularly amenable to cross-sectional financial ratio analysis. In most of firms, however, the financial data are available over past years. Because of this, a model utilizing these longitudinal data could provide useful information on the prediction of bankruptcy. To correctly reflect the longitudinal and firm-specific data, the generalized linear model with assuming the first order AR(autoregressive) process is proposed. The method is motivated by the clinical research that several characteristics are measured repeatedly from individual over the time. The model is compared with several other predictive models to evaluate the performance. By using the financial data from manufacturing corporations in the Korea Stock Exchange (KSE) list, we will discuss some experiences learned from the procedure of sampling scheme, variable transformation, imputation, variable selection, and model evaluation. Finally, implications of the model with repeated measurement and future direction of research will be discussed.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
• /
• v.17 no.6
• /
• pp.1545-1559
• /
• 2023

In the cloud environment, microservices are implemented through Kubernetes, and these services can be expanded or reduced through the autoscaling function under Kubernetes, depending on the service request or resource usage. However, the increase in the number of nodes or distributed microservices in Kubernetes and the unpredictable autoscaling function make it very difficult for system administrators to conduct operations. Artificial Intelligence for IT Operations (AIOps) supports resource management for cloud services through AI and has attracted attention as a solution to these problems. For example, after the AI model learns the metric or log data collected in the microservice units, failures can be inferred by predicting the resources in future data. However, it is difficult to construct data sets for generating learning models because many microservices used for autoscaling generate different metrics or logs in the same timestamp. In this study, we propose a cloud data refining module and structure that collects metric or log data in a microservice environment implemented by Kubernetes; and arranges it into computing resources corresponding to each service so that AI models can learn and analogize service-specific failures. We obtained Kubernetes-based AIOps learning data through this module, and after learning the built dataset through the AI model, we verified the prediction result through the differences between the obtained and actual data.

• The KIPS Transactions:PartD
• /
• v.8D no.4
• /
• pp.387-392
• /
• 2001

This Many software projects collect grouped failure data (failures in some failure interval or in variable time interval) rather than individual failure times or failure count data during the testing or operational phase. This paper presents the neural network (NN) modeling for grouped failure data that is able to predict cumulative failures in the variable future time. The two variant models of cascade-correlation learning (CasCor) algorithm are presented. Suggested models are compared with other well-known NN models and statistical software reliability growth models (SRGMs). Experimental results show that the suggested models show better predictability.

• Transactions on Electrical and Electronic Materials
• /
• v.7 no.5
• /
• pp.217-223
• /
• 2006

When only partial information is available about equipment failures (installation date and amount, as well as failure and replacement rates), data on sufficiently large number of yearly populations of the components can be combined, and estimation of model parameters may be possible. The parametric models may then be used for forecasting of the system's short term future failure and for formulation of replacement strategies. We employ the Weibull distribution and show how we estimate its parameters from past failure data. Using Monte Carlo simulations, it is possible to assess confidence ranges of the forecasted component performance data.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
• /
• v.24 no.6
• /
• pp.66-73
• /
• 2023

The construction industry suffers losses due to failures in demand forecasting due to price fluctuations in construction raw materials, increased user costs due to project cost changes, and lack of forecasting system. Accordingly, it is necessary to improve the accuracy of construction raw material price forecasting. This study aims to predict the price of construction raw materials and verify applicability through the improvement of the Data Refactor technique. In order to improve the accuracy of price prediction of construction raw materials, the existing data refactor classification of low and high frequency and ARIMAX utilization method was improved to frequency-oriented and ARIMA method utilization, so that short-term (3 months in the future) six items such as construction raw materials lumber and cement were improved. ), mid-term (6 months in the future), and long-term (12 months in the future) price forecasts. As a result of the analysis, the predicted value based on the improved Data Refactor technique reduced the error and expanded the variability. Therefore, it is expected that the budget can be managed effectively by predicting the price of construction raw materials more accurately through the Data Refactor technique proposed in this study.

• Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
• /
• v.23 no.3
• /
• pp.356-366
• /
• 2007

In this paper a methodology is developed to prioritize replacement of water distribution pipes according to the economical efficiency of replacement and assess the long-term effects of water main replacement policies on water distribution systems. The methodology is implemented with MATLAB to develop a computer algorithm which is used to apply the methodology to a case study water distribution system. A pipe break prediction model is used to estimate future costs of pipe repair and replacement, and the economically optimal replacement time of a pipe is estimated by obtaining the time at which the present worth of the total costs of repair and replacement is minimum. The equation for estimating the present worth of the total cost is modified to reflect the fact that a pipe can be replaced in between of failure events. The results of the analyses show that about 9.5% of the pipes in the case study system is required to be replaced within the planning horizon. Analyses of the yearly pipe replacement requirements for the case study system are provided along with the compositions of the replacement. The effects of water main replacement policies, for which yearly replacement length scenario and yearly replacement budget scenario are used, during a planning horizon are simulated in terms of the predicted number of pipe failures and the saved repair costs.

• Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
• /
• v.51 no.2
• /
• pp.223-245
• /
• 2023

Purpose: This study aim to identify the trends in AI-based PHM technology that can enhance reliability and minimize costs. Furthermore, this research provides valuable guidelines for future studies in various industries Methods: In this study, I collected and selected AI-based PHM studies, established classification criteria, and analyzed research trends based on classified fields and techniques. Results: Analysis of 125 domestic studies revealed a greater emphasis on machinery in both diagnosis and prognosis, with more papers dedicated to diagnosis. various algorithms were employed, including CNN for image diagnosis and frequency analysis for signal data. LSTM was commonly used in prognosis for predicting failures and remaining life. Different industries, data types, and objectives required diverse AI techniques, with GAN used for data augmentation and GA for feature extraction. Conclusion: As studies on AI-based PHM continue to grow, selecting appropriate algorithms for data types and analysis purposes is essential. Thus, analyzing research trends in AI-based PHM is crucial for its rapid development.

• Journal of radiological science and technology
• /
• v.45 no.6
• /
• pp.491-502
• /
• 2022

The purpose of this study was to retrospectively investigate the upper and lower control limits of treatment planning parameters using EBT film based delivery quality assurance (DQA) results and to analyze the results of statistical process control (SPC) in helical tomotherapy (HT). A total of 152 patients who passed or failed DQA results were retrospectively included in this study. Prostate (n = 66), rectal (n = 51), and large-field cancer patients, including lymph nodes (n = 35), were randomly selected. The absolute point dose difference (DD) and global gamma passing rate (GPR) were analyzed for all patients. Control charts were used to evaluate the upper and lower control limits (UCL and LCL) for all the assessed treatment planning parameters. Treatment planning parameters such as gantry period, leaf open time (LOT), pitch, field width, actual and planning modulation factor, treatment time, couch speed, and couch travel were analyzed to provide the optimal range using the DQA results. The classification and regression tree (CART) was used to predict the relative importance of variables in the DQA results from various treatment planning parameters. We confirmed that the proportion of patients with an LOT below 100 ms in the failure group was relatively higher than that in the passing group. SPC can detect QA failure prior to over dosimetric QA tolerance levels. The acceptable tolerance range of each planning parameter may assist in the prediction of DQA failures using the SPC tool in the future.