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A Study on Growth Acceleration in Korean as Indirected by the Maximum Growth Age in Body Height (한국인(韓國人) 신장(身長)의 최대발육연령(最大發育年齡)으로 본 발육촉진현상(發育促進現象)의 추이(推移)에 관(關)한 연구(硏究))

  • Shin, Hyung-Gyun;Park, Soon-Young;Park, Yang-Won
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.173-192
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    • 1984
  • On the basis of the study intended to research by crosssectional study keeps pace with semilongitudinal study the growthaccelerating phenomena that Maximum Growth age in teenager's body-height. By the random sampling method, the subject of study are 12659 persons(male; 6355, female; 6304) that they are from 7 ages to 17 ages in the whole country including the rural community. The measurement period passed three month days, the statistical data became electronic data processing system with computer. The other side, body-height and MGA of Koreans who had been for during the period from 1925 to 1966 proved transition of the growth-accelerating phenomena by research data reported between 1913 and 1983. The results are as follows; 1. The Growth and Development-Value of Body-height An age bracket the growth and development-value of body-height were, respectively, male is $123.88{\pm}5.05cm$ and female is $123.29{\pm}5.54cm$ for 7 ages group. these indices increased with age. the top-value reach, respectively. $169.08{\pm}5.62cm$ and $157.57{\pm}6.13cm$. The intersecting ages of male and female were the age $8.5{\sim}12.5$, during these periods, female excelled male but after these periods, male excelled female again. In case of body-height, MGA's are 7.0cm for male between 12 and 13 ages, and 7.01cm for female between 8 and 9 ages. As a rule, body-height of male excelled female but intersection phenomena of male and female appeared between 8.5 and 12.5 ages. By reginal groups, it is most prevailing is Seoul, and medium size cities and rural community rome in order. By regional groups, intersection phenomena of male and female are. a region of Seoul; $$8.5{\sim}11.5$$ ages a region of Daejeon; $$7.5{\sim}9.5$$ ages rural community; $$11.5{\sim}14.5$$ ages the whole country's average; $$8.5{\sim}12.5$$ ages By regional groups, the rate of maximum increase in a year are a region of Seoul; male is 7.23cm as 13 ages female is 7.65cm as 9 ages. a region of Daejeon; male is 7.85cm as 11 ages. female is 8.39cm as 9 ages. rural community; male is 7.65cm as 14 ages. female is 6.25cm as 12 ages. the whole country's average; male is 7.0cm as 13 ages. female is 7.01 as 9 ages. 2. Maximum Growth Age (M.G.A.) By reginal groups, maximum Growth Age's are as below in a region of Seoul, MGA's are 12.63 for male and 9.01 for female, which shows that MGA for female appears about 3.5 years earlier than that for male. In a region of Daejeon, MGA's are 9.20 for male and 8.93 for female, which. show that they are all much the same in M.G.A. In rural community, MGA's are 14.00 for male and 11.89 for female, which shows that MGA for female apperars about 2 years earlier than that for male. In the whole average, MGA's are 13.01 for male and 8.97 for femal, which shows that for female appears about 4 years earlier than that for male. For boy, M.G.A. shows fastest-growing in Daejeon, and Seoul and rural commonly come in order. For girl, It shows equal growth in Seoul and Daejeon, rural community comes later. 3. The M.G.A's in body height of male are respectively the age 15.02 in 1913, 14.23 in 1956, 13.86 in 1967, 13.62 in 1975, and 12.82 in 1981, while those of female are the age 12.0 in 1940, 11.52 in 1965, 9.53 in 1975, and 11.16 in 1980; these data show that the MGA of the Koreans has been getting younger. 4. The equation of linear regression of all the MGA's in body height are as follow; Male: Y(M.G.A)=$-0.020{\times}$ (the year)+15.19: female:Y(MGA)=$-0.028{\times}$(the year)+13.2549. 5. The corelation of all the MGA's in body height are as below; male; r=-0.329 female;r=-0.252 6. From the transition of the growth-accelating phenomena in 1980 we can capture the fact that the MGA's has been getting younger by 0.2 year per 10 years. 7. The MGA's in bodyheight are shown in table 4... 8. The future growth-accelating phenomena in body height are expected to show the similar tendency like that of the past, in 1910's but it should by more precisely reviewed after investigating the phenomena of the years directly ahead.

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Parameterization and Application of a Forest Landscape Model by Using National Forest Inventory and Long Term Ecological Research Data (국가산림자원조사와 장기생태연구 자료를 활용한 산림경관모형의 모수화 및 적용성 평가)

  • Cho, Wonhee;Lim, Wontaek;Kim, Eun-Sook;Lim, Jong-Hwan;Ko, Dongwook W.
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.215-231
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    • 2020
  • Forest landscape models (FLMs) can be used to investigate the complex interactions of various ecological processes and patterns, which makes them useful tools to evaluate how environmental and anthropogenic variables can influence forest ecosystems. However, due to the large spatio-temporal scales in FLMs studies, parameterization and validation can be extremely challenging when applying to new study areas. To address this issue, we focused on the parameterization and application of a spatially explicit forest landscape model, LANDIS-II, to Mt. Gyebang, South Korea, with the use of the National Forest Inventory (NFI) and long-term ecological research (LTER) site data. In this study, we present the followings for the biomass succession extension of LANDIS-II: 1) species-specific and spatial parameters estimation for the biomass succession extension of LANDIS-II, 2) calibration, and 3) application and validation for Mt. Gyebang. For the biomass succession extension, we selected 14 tree species, and parameterized ecoregion map, initial community map, species growth characteristics. We produced ecoregion map using elevation, aspect, and topographic wetness index based on digital elevation model. Initial community map was produced based on NFI and sub-alpine survey data. Tree species growth parameters, such as aboveground net primary production and maximum aboveground biomass, were estimated from PnET-II model based on species physiological factors and environmental variables. Literature data were used to estimate species physiological factors, such as FolN, SLWmax, HalfSat, growing temperature, and shade tolerance. For calibration and validation purposes, we compared species-specific aboveground biomass of model outputs and NFI and sub-alpine survey data and calculated coefficient of determination (R2) and root mean square error (RMSE). The final model performed very well, with 0. 98 R2 and 8. 9 RMSE. This study can serve as a foundation for the use of FLMs to other applications such as comparing alternative forest management scenarios and natural disturbance effects.

Preference and Tourism Behaviors of the Tourists to the Travel-Destinations in the Eastern Area of Chonnam Province (전남 동부지역 관광지의 선호도와 관광행태에 관한 연구)

  • Chu, Myung-Hee;Lee, Joeng-Rock;Kim, Jae-Chul
    • Journal of the Korean association of regional geographers
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    • v.2 no.1
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    • pp.115-131
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    • 1996
  • Tourism is multi-faceted phenomenon which involves movement to stay in destinations outside the normal place of residence. Thus, tourism is a composite phenomenon which incorporates the diversity of variables and relationships to be found in the tourist travel process. Tourism-behaviors are of major economic and social significance. With the growth of mass-tourism, the government departments of tourism is to provide many tourist facilities, to develop travel destination and tourism resources. At same time, the growth of mass-tourism has prompted perceptive travellers to raise many questions concerning the many travel destination and the tourism resources of encouraging further tourism demand. Most of tourism have a mental in their minds about various objects. This allowed him to choose tourism destination as a important rules. In tourism geography, behavioral approach to wildness, tourism resources and places has risen since 1960's. The tourist profile can be viewed under two major categories: the tourist social-economic and behavioral characteristic. Particulary, the motivations, attitude, need, values and preference of travel destinations are of crucial importance in contributing to their desion-making process. In this view, this paper is emprical study investigated travel patterns and behavioral characteristic of tourists and potential tourist in East Chonnam. The purpose of this paper is to show the spatial preference and tourism behavior of travel destinations. For this study, we are undertaken the questionary method employed by recreation geographers in order to collect research data for the East Chonnam-citizens functioned as a major tourist demand. The East Chonnam Province have many tourist-places including national park, provincial park, and local tourist-places. Thus, citizen of the East Chonnam evaluate many tourist-places very high, but evaluate the facilities of tourist place very low. The high ranks of preferences to travel destinations among tourist-places are Hyangilam, Geomoon island, Odongis land, Songkwang temple. The major travel destinations occurred the temporary travel trip are Odong island, Sunam temple, Songkwang temple. Heungkook temple, Hyangilam which are the type of mountainous in located inland. The relationship between the degree of preference and tourism behavior of travel trip for the travel destinations does not correlate each other. The result of analysis about the degree of seasonal preferences presented spatial differences according to characteristics of tourist-places. The typical travel destination are divided into seasons : Odong island. Mt. Backwoon, Goemoon island of spring, Goemoon island, Sungbul valley, Banggukpo beach of summer, Songkwang temple, Mt. Pal young of fall. The future of tourism will be rapidly grow with increase of personal mobility and leisure time, chang of tourism behavior. Thus, it is imperative that planning and development for tour-root, facilities of tourist-places should be implemented to increase tourism demand.

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Market Segmentation of Converging New Media Advertising: The Interpretative Approach Based on Consumer Subjectivity (융합형 뉴미디어 광고의 시장세분화 연구: 소비자 주관성에 근거한 해석적 관점에서)

  • Seo, Kyoung-Jin;Hwang, Jin-Ha;Jeung, Jang-Hun;Kim, Ki-Youn
    • Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.91-102
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    • 2014
  • The purpose of this research is to perform the consumer typological study of integrated emerging digital advertisement, where IT and advertisement industry were fused, and to propose the theoretical definition about consumer characteristic which is in need for collection of related market subdivision strategy in perspective of business marketing. For this, the Q methodology, the 'subjectivity' research of qualitative perspective, which discovers new theory by interpreting subjective system of thinking, preference, opinion, and recognition of inner side of respondents, was applied and analyzed. Compared to previous quantitative research that pursues hypothesis verification, this Q methodology is not dependent on operational definition proposed by researcher but pursues for analytic study completely reflecting objective testimony of respondents. For this reason, Q study analyzes in-depth the actual consumer type, which can be found at the initial market formation stage of new service, therefore this study is applicable for theorizing the consumer character as a mean of advanced research. This study extracted thirty 'IT integrated digital advertisement type (Q sample)' from thorough literature research and interviews, and eventually discovered a total four consumer types from analyzing each Q sorting research data of 40 respondents (P sample). Moreover, by interpreting subdivided intrinsic characteristic of each group, the four types were named as 'multi-channel digital advertisement pursuit type', 'emotional advertisement pursuit type', 'new media advertisement pursuit type', and Web 2.0 advertisement pursuit type'. The analysis result of this study is being expected for its value of usage as advanced research of academic and industrial research with the emerging digital advertisement industry as a subject, and as basic research in the field of R&D, Marketing program and the field of designing the advertisement creative strategy and related policy.

A Study on the Sexual Adjustment and Quality of Life in Married Men with Spinal cord Injuries (척수장애 기혼남성의 성 적응과 삶의 질에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Yeong-Hee;Cho, Bok-Hee
    • The Korean Journal of Rehabilitation Nursing
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.27-42
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    • 2000
  • The purpose of this study was to identify the degree of sexual adjustment and quality of life in married men with spinal cord injuries and to furnish primary data to sexuality rehabilitation nursing practice which can lead to ideal sexual life and quality of life those men with SCI. Seventy married men with SCI were conveniently sampled in Kwangju, Suncheon, Mokpo and Seoul for responding the questionnaire, which was based on this research. With the research scale, SIS (Sexual interest and satisfaction) by Siosteen et al.(1990) and SB(Sexual behaviour) by Kreuter et al.(1996) were used for the measurement of sexual adjustment. And, for measuring quality of life was used SCI QL-23(Spinal cord injury of life-23) scale by Lundqvist et al.(1997). Data were collected from January 20 to March 20, 1999, using a structured questionnaire. A hundred volumes of questionnaire were used. and 85 volumes were collected, 70 volumes were used as research data after excluding 15 volumes unsuitable to data analysis. The obtain data were analysed using percentage, t-test, ANOVA, Duncan test, and Pearson's correlation by SAS PC+ program. The results were as follows: 1. The mean score of sexual interest and satisfaction of the subjects was 8.42. out of 18. The ways of their sexual behavior after spinal cord injuries were embracing and caressing (62.9%), kissing(58.6%), caressing breast with hands (55.7%), caressing breast with hands (52.9%), caressing genitals with hands (37.2%), caressing genitals with mouth(30.0%) and sexual intercourse (18.6%). The mean score of quality of life was 52.53 out of 100. 2. Age(F=3.24, p=.045) and caregiver (F=4.02, p=.022)were major variables which reveals significant differences in terms for sexual interest and satisfaction. The later results on Duncan's test showed that subjects who were in their 30s or 40s were significant higher than subjects whose age were in their 50s in their sexual interest and satisfaction. Also subjects with their spouse's care or mother's care were higher than those with other's care. 3. Subjects with incomplete paraplegia were higher than those with the complete paraplegia in sexual interest and satisfaction (F=3.01, p=.036). 4. Variables that showed the significant differences in the quality of life were education(t=2.860, p=.007) and period of marriage(t=2.125, p=.037). and occupational status(t=-2.161, p=.034). High school graduates, those who married before spinal cord injuries and those who didn't have occupation were higher than the other subjects. 5. Variables that revealed significant differences in the quality of life were time passage after spinal cord injuries(F=8.72, p=.001) and injured level of spinal cord(F=3.32, p=.042). Duncan's test showed that subjects who had lived for less than 4 years were higher those with time passage of 5-9 years and 10 years. Also subjects with lumbar injuries were higher than those with thoracic injuries in terms of quality of life. 6. There was negatively correlated between sexual interest and satisfaction and quality of life(r=-.256, p<.05). As a result of these findings sexuality rehabilitation for individuals with SCI was very important issue for their quality of life. Thus, registered nurses who care clients with SCI should activily participate in the client's sexual needs. Also, various sexual behaviors as well as sexual intercourse should be encouraged for the sexual adjustment of client's with SCI.

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A Study on Yunqi Climate (運氣氣候) through analysis of Meteorological research data in Korea (한국(韓國) 기상자료(氣象資料)의 분석(分析)을 통(通)한 운기(運氣) 기후(氣候)에 관(關)한 연구(硏究))

  • Park, Chan-Young;Kim, Ki-Wook;Park, Hyun-Kook
    • The Journal of Dong Guk Oriental Medicine
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.1-24
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    • 2000
  • The comparison of climate's character of Yunqi(運氣) with the data of meterological observation were made in the research of climate. 1. The comparison of the average velocity of wind, temperature, rainfall, humidity of Seoul, by late 1954 to 1983, with Yunqi(運氣) was made. Fire-Chi(火氣) and moisture-qi(濕氣) were matched with the attribute of Taiyun(大運). Cold-qi(寒氣) was had some relationship. Dry-qi(燥 氣) and Wind-qi(風氣) were not matched. About the relationship of Spirit-of-official-sky(司天之氣) with climate, when the Moisture-soil(濕土) was added, they were matched and when the King-fire(君火) was added, they have some relationship. But Wind-tree(風木), Dry-metal(燥金), Buble-fire(相火), Cold-water(寒水) was added they were not matched. 2. According to the observation data of rainfall by late 180 years of Seoul; about Taiyun(大運), when the Water-Yun(水運) was greatly exceeded and Fire-Yun(火運) was shorted, in the case of Official-sky(司天), when Wind-Tree(風木) was added, the frequency was highly. So when the Soil-Yun(土運) was greatly exceeded and when Official-sky(司天)was added to the Moisture-soil(濕土), the rainfall was not matched. 3. The relationship of the frequency of the abnormal climate occurrences between Yunqi-promotion-weak(運氣盛衰)and Yunqi-Harmony(運氣同化) and Yunqi-soft-attacking(運氣順逆) in the weather of Korean Peninsula was compared by 1564 to 1863. They were not matched except the case of Yunqi-Harmony(運氣同化). 4. There were some cases which were not matched exactly between the climate predicted by the theory and real climate in 1984, the year of Kap-ga(甲子年). But many correspondence between the observation by the office of meteorology and the prediction by the analysis from Yun-qi-sang-hab(運氣相合) theory. 5. Because meterological phenomena of real world and analysis from the hypothesis of Yunqi(運氣) have no relationship with each other, some of Doctor denied Yunqi(運氣) in the way of matching mechanically. But the thought of Doctor who denied Fortune-spirit(運氣) made promotion for the theory of divination by bringing deeper insight. And it was not only the negative side. 6. In the point of geographical difference, the climate of China, the origination Yunqi theory, is different from the Korea's. Thus some observation errors should be considered. From the basis of this thesis, I hope that the deeper advance would be made into the Korean Yunqi theory.

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A Study on the Causality of Technology Culture of East Asian Roof Tile Making Technology Since the 17th Century (17세기 이후 동아시아 제와(製瓦)의 기술문화적 인과성)

  • Kim, Hajin
    • MUNHWAJAE Korean Journal of Cultural Heritage Studies
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    • v.52 no.3
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    • pp.56-73
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    • 2019
  • This paper aims to establish the technical style of roof tiles by analyzing East Asian roof tile making techniques. It will examine the existing main research data, such as excavation results and the subsequent analysis of the roof tiles' production traces, as well as references and transmitted techniques. Regions are grouped according to technical similarity, then grouped again by artistic styles of pattern and shape and by the technical styles of tools, procedures, and manpower plans. Accordingly, intends to find out whether an understanding of technical style can facilitate an understanding of not only cultural aspects, but also the causality of techniques. Korean, Chinese and Japanese tools were examined, and procedures for making roof tiles were classified into 4 groups. In a superficial way, China, Okinawa, Korea, and Honshu share similar technical traits. Research of procedural details and manpower plans revealed characteristics of each region. As a result, comparisons were made between each region's technical characteristics attempting to investigate their causes. The groups were classified according to their possessing techniques, but it was revealed that East Asia's shared production techniques were based on architectural methodss. The skill of "Pyeon Jeol(Clay Cutting)" classified according to its possessing techniques, turned out to be one such technique. Also, the procedure of technical localization based on the skill of "Ta-nal(Tapping)" showed that the condition of this technique was the power to localize in response to a transfer of techniques. Previous comparison parameters of artifacts would have been a similarity of style originated from exchanges between regions and stylistic characteristics of regions decided by the demander's taste of beauty. This methodology enlarges cultural perception and affords a positive basis of historical facts. However, it suggests the possibility of finding cultural aspects' origins by understanding the technical style and seeing same result in view of "technology culture."

The Standard of Judgement on Plagiarism in Research Ethics and the Guideline of Global Journals for KODISA (KODISA 연구윤리의 표절 판단기준과 글로벌 학술지 가이드라인)

  • Hwang, Hee-Joong;Kim, Dong-Ho;Youn, Myoung-Kil;Lee, Jung-Wan;Lee, Jong-Ho
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.12 no.6
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    • pp.15-20
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    • 2014
  • Purpose - In general, researchers try to abide by the code of research ethics, but many of them are not fully aware of plagiarism, unintentionally committing the research misconduct when they write a research paper. This research aims to introduce researchers a clear and easy guideline at a conference, which helps researchers avoid accidental plagiarism by addressing the issue. This research is expected to contribute building a climate and encouraging creative research among scholars. Research design, data, methodology & Results - Plagiarism is considered a sort of research misconduct along with fabrication and falsification. It is defined as an improper usage of another author's ideas, language, process, or results without giving appropriate credit. Plagiarism has nothing to do with examining the truth or accessing value of research data, process, or results. Plagiarism is determined based on whether a research corresponds to widely-used research ethics, containing proper citations. Within academia, plagiarism goes beyond the legal boundary, encompassing any kind of intentional wrongful appropriation of a research, which was created by another researchers. In summary, the definition of plagiarism is to steal other people's creative idea, research model, hypotheses, methods, definition, variables, images, tables and graphs, and use them without reasonable attribution to their true sources. There are various types of plagiarism. Some people assort plagiarism into idea plagiarism, text plagiarism, mosaic plagiarism, and idea distortion. Others view that plagiarism includes uncredited usage of another person's work without appropriate citations, self-plagiarism (using a part of a researcher's own previous research without proper citations), duplicate publication (publishing a researcher's own previous work with a different title), unethical citation (using quoted parts of another person's research without proper citations as if the parts are being cited by the current author). When an author wants to cite a part that was previously drawn from another source the author is supposed to reveal that the part is re-cited. If it is hard to state all the sources the author is allowed to mention the original source only. Today, various disciplines are developing their own measures to address these plagiarism issues, especially duplicate publications, by requiring researchers to clearly reveal true sources when they refer to any other research. Conclusions - Research misconducts including plagiarism have broad and unclear boundaries which allow ambiguous definitions and diverse interpretations. It seems difficult for researchers to have clear understandings of ways to avoid plagiarism and how to cite other's works properly. However, if guidelines are developed to detect and avoid plagiarism considering characteristics of each discipline (For example, social science and natural sciences might be able to have different standards on plagiarism.) and shared among researchers they will likely have a consensus and understanding regarding the issue. Particularly, since duplicate publications has frequently appeared more than plagiarism, academic institutions will need to provide pre-warning and screening in evaluation processes in order to reduce mistakes of researchers and to prevent duplicate publications. What is critical for researchers is to clearly reveal the true sources based on the common citation rules and to only borrow necessary amounts of others' research.

The effects of the direct nursing care hours with establishment of the nurse substations (Nurse Substation 운영이 직접간호시간 증가에 미치는 효과)

  • Lee, Chug-Hee;Sung, Young-Hee;Kwon, In-Gak;Lee, Soon-Kyu;Jung, Yoen-Yi;Hoe, Sung-Hee;Ryoo, Sung-Suk;Kim, Jung-Suk
    • Journal of Korean Academy of Nursing Administration
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    • v.3 no.2
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    • pp.61-80
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    • 1997
  • The purpose of this study is to measure the direct and indirect nursing care hours with establishment of nurse substations and compare the experimental nursing units with the existing nursing units For this study, two experimental nursing units: (1) a medical nursing unit and (2) a surgical nursing unit with a nurse substation were selected. And two control nursing units : (1) a medical nursing unit and (2) a surgical nursing unit without a nurse substation were selected. After a three-month experimental operation from June 1 to August 31,1996, research data were collected for three days from September 2 to 4, 1996. We investigated the effects of the direct & indirect nursing care hours with establishment of the nurse substations (improved nursing environment) without adding the staff nurses. The effect of establishment of the nurse sub-station was measured for the differences direct & indirect nursing care hours between experimental and control nursing units. An investigator measured the time for a staff nurse to practice each nursing activity and recorded it every minute. Percentage, average, standard deviation, t-test and ANOVA were used for data analysis. The results are as follows: 1. There was no significant difference between the experimental and control nursing units in staffs' working hours during their shift. 2. There were significant diffferences between the experimental and control nursing units in dierct nursing care hours (t=0.0288, p=0.0001) and indirect nursing care hours (t=0.3886, p=0.0103) per patient. 3. There was significant difference between the experimental and control nursing units in direct nursing care hours done by nurses(t=0.0012, p=0.0111) and aids(t=0.3011, p=0.0027). There was significant difference between the experimental and control nursing units in indirect nursing care hours done by head-nurses(t=0.0051, p=0.0253), nurses(t=0.0071, p=0.0024) and aids (t=0.3227, p=0.0351). There was significant difference between the experimental and control nursing units in indirect nursing care hours done by nurses(t=0.0005, p=0.0015) and aids(t=0.2400, p=0.0013) per patient. There was significant difference between the experimental and control nursing units in indirect nursing care hours done by head-nurses(t=0.0005, p=0.0379) and nurses (t=0.0035, p=0.0198) per patient. 4. Thre were significant differences between the experimental and control nursing units in direct nursing care hours (t=0.1134, p=0.0010) and indirect nursing care hours (t=0.7106, p=0.0008) per staff during the day shift. There were significant differences between the experimental and control nursing units in direct nunsing care hours during the day(t=0.0723, p=0.0003) and evening shift (t=0.0004, p=0.0285) per patient, and indirect nursing care hours during the day shift(t=0.5565, p=0.0036) per patient. 5. There were differences between the experiemental and control nursing units in dircet nursing activities including measurement and observation, medication, communication, teratment, hygiene, and nutrition, and in indirect nursing activities including confirmantion, communication, record, computer work, management of goods. But it was not statistically proven. 6. There was difference between the experimental and control nursing units in unmet-need nursing care hours per patient, but not statistically proven.

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A Study on Forecasting Accuracy Improvement of Case Based Reasoning Approach Using Fuzzy Relation (퍼지 관계를 활용한 사례기반추론 예측 정확성 향상에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, In-Ho;Shin, Kyung-Shik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.67-84
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    • 2010
  • In terms of business, forecasting is a work of what is expected to happen in the future to make managerial decisions and plans. Therefore, the accurate forecasting is very important for major managerial decision making and is the basis for making various strategies of business. But it is very difficult to make an unbiased and consistent estimate because of uncertainty and complexity in the future business environment. That is why we should use scientific forecasting model to support business decision making, and make an effort to minimize the model's forecasting error which is difference between observation and estimator. Nevertheless, minimizing the error is not an easy task. Case-based reasoning is a problem solving method that utilizes the past similar case to solve the current problem. To build the successful case-based reasoning models, retrieving the case not only the most similar case but also the most relevant case is very important. To retrieve the similar and relevant case from past cases, the measurement of similarities between cases is an important key factor. Especially, if the cases contain symbolic data, it is more difficult to measure the distances. The purpose of this study is to improve the forecasting accuracy of case-based reasoning approach using fuzzy relation and composition. Especially, two methods are adopted to measure the similarity between cases containing symbolic data. One is to deduct the similarity matrix following binary logic(the judgment of sameness between two symbolic data), the other is to deduct the similarity matrix following fuzzy relation and composition. This study is conducted in the following order; data gathering and preprocessing, model building and analysis, validation analysis, conclusion. First, in the progress of data gathering and preprocessing we collect data set including categorical dependent variables. Also, the data set gathered is cross-section data and independent variables of the data set include several qualitative variables expressed symbolic data. The research data consists of many financial ratios and the corresponding bond ratings of Korean companies. The ratings we employ in this study cover all bonds rated by one of the bond rating agencies in Korea. Our total sample includes 1,816 companies whose commercial papers have been rated in the period 1997~2000. Credit grades are defined as outputs and classified into 5 rating categories(A1, A2, A3, B, C) according to credit levels. Second, in the progress of model building and analysis we deduct the similarity matrix following binary logic and fuzzy composition to measure the similarity between cases containing symbolic data. In this process, the used types of fuzzy composition are max-min, max-product, max-average. And then, the analysis is carried out by case-based reasoning approach with the deducted similarity matrix. Third, in the progress of validation analysis we verify the validation of model through McNemar test based on hit ratio. Finally, we draw a conclusion from the study. As a result, the similarity measuring method using fuzzy relation and composition shows good forecasting performance compared to the similarity measuring method using binary logic for similarity measurement between two symbolic data. But the results of the analysis are not statistically significant in forecasting performance among the types of fuzzy composition. The contributions of this study are as follows. We propose another methodology that fuzzy relation and fuzzy composition could be applied for the similarity measurement between two symbolic data. That is the most important factor to build case-based reasoning model.