• Title/Summary/Keyword: risk factor

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A Study on Risk Factors for Early Major Morbidity and Mortality in Multiple-valve Operations (중복판막수술후 조기성적에 영향을 미치는 인자에 관한 연구)

  • 한일용;조용길;황윤호;조광현
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.31 no.3
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    • pp.233-241
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    • 1998
  • To define the risk factors affecting the early major morbidity and mortality after multiple- valve operations, the preoperative, intraoperative and postoperative informations were retrospectively collected on 124 consecutive patients undergoing a multiple-valve operation between October 1985 and July 1996 at the department of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery of Pusan Paik Hospital. The study population consists of 53 men and 71 women whose mean age was 37.9$\pm$11.5(mean$\pm$SD) years. Using the New York Heart Association(NYHA) classification, 41 patients(33.1%) were in functional class II, 60(48.4%) in class III, and 20(16.1%) in class IV preoperatively. Seven patients(5.6%) had undergone previous cardiac operations. Atrial fibrillations were present in 76 patients(61.3%), a history of cerebral embolism in 5(4.0%), and left atrial thrombus in 13(10.5%). The overall early mortality rate and postoperative morbidity was 8.1% and 21.8% respectively. Among the 124 cases of multiple-valve operation, there were 57(46.0%) of combined mitral valve replacement(MVR) and aortic valve replacement(AVR), 48(38.7%) of combined MVR and tricuspid annuloplasty(TVA), 12(9.7%) of combined MVR, AVR and TVA, 3(2.4%) of combined MVR and aortic valvuloplasty, 2(1.6%) of combined MVR and tricuspid valve replacement, and others. The patients were classified according to the postoperative outcomes; Group A(27 cases) included the patients who had early death or major morbidity such as low cardiac output syndrome, mediastinitis, cardiac rupture, ventricular arrhythmia, sepsis, and others; Group B(97 cases) included the patients who had the good postoperative outcomes. The patients were also classified into group of early death and survivor. In comparison of group A and group B, there were significant differences in aortic cross-clamping time(ACT, group A:153.4$\pm$42.4 minutes, group B:134.0$\pm$43.7 minutes, p=0.042), total bypass time(TBT, group A:187.4$\pm$65.5 minutes, group B:158.1$\pm$50.6 minutes, p=0.038), and NYHA functional class(I:33.3%, II:9.7%, III:20%, IV:50%, p=0.004). In comparison of early death(n=10) and survivor(n=114), there were significant differences in age(early death:45.2$\pm$8.7 years, survivor:37.2$\pm$11.6 years, p=0.036), sex(female:12.7%, male:1.9%, p=0.043), ACT(early death:167.1$\pm$38.4 minutes, survivor:135.7$\pm$43.7 minutes, p=0.030), and NYHA functional class(I:0%, II:4.9%, III:1.7%, IV:35%, p=0.001). In conclusion, the early major morbidity and mortality were influenced by the preoperative clinical status and therefore the earlier surgical intervention should be recommended whenever possible. Also, improved methods of myocardial protection and operative techniques may reduce the risk in patients with multiple-valve operation.

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The Effect of a Bypass Operation for Atherosclerotic Arterial Obstructive Disease at the Lower Extremity (동맥경화성 하지 동맥 폐색증에 대한 우회로 수술의 효과)

  • Choi, Won-Suk;Park, Jae-Min;Lee, Yang-Haeng;Han, Il-Yong;Jun, Hee-Jae;Yoon, Young-Chul;Hwang, Youn-Ho;Cho, Kwang-Hyun
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.41 no.5
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    • pp.610-618
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    • 2008
  • Background: There are various treatment modalities for atherosclerotic arterial obstructive disease at the lower limbs, for example, conservative physical therapy, medication, operation etc. Yet it has been established that an arterial bypass operation is the most effective treatment. The aim of this study is to evaluate the effect of arterial bypass operation within our experience and to determine the indicators of treatment. Material and Method: Ninety six patients received arterial bypass operation for atherosclerotic arterial obstructive disease from June 2002 to April 2006. We evaluated the feasibility of arterial bypass operation based on the improvement of symptoms and the ankle-brachial index (ABI) and the surgical outcomes, as based on the complications, the amputation rates and the patency rates. We also assessed the possible risk factors such as gender, age, a smoking history, co-morbidities, the anastomotic sites, the graft size and the graft type. We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of the patients. The total mean follow-up period was $29.4{\pm}13.1$ months. Result: The mean age was $65.95{\pm}9.61$ and there were 88 male patients. The most common clinical manifestation was ischemic resting pain in the lower extremities. The underlying combined diseases were hypertension (61%), diabetes (43%), cardiac problems (35%) and smoking (91.7%). The most frequent site of arterial obstruction was the superficial femoral artery (44 cases, 40%). A femoropopliteal artery bypass operation with a Polytetrafluoroethylene(PTFE) synthetic graft was done in 44 cases (40%) and the great saphenous vein graft was used in 11 cases. The postoperative ABI increased significantly from $0.30{\pm}0.11$ preoperatively to $0.63{\pm}0.11$ (p<0.001) postoperatively. In 8 cases, amputations above the ankle level were necessary. The graft patency rates were 86.4% and 68.0% after 1 and 3 years, respectively. There were 29 cases (30.21%) of patency failure; the male gender, smokers and hypertension were significantly more frequent in the failure group. Of these, hypertension was the most powerful risk factor (p=0.042). Conclusion: The arterial bypass operation is an effective treatment modality for controlling the symptoms such as pain and claudication, and for preventing major amputations for the patients with atherosclerotic arterial obstructive disease. This study suggests quitting smoking, strict blood pressure control, selection of an appropriate graft, regular outpatient follow up and proper medication would offer higher patency rates and more favorable outcomes.

Performance Improvement on Short Volatility Strategy with Asymmetric Spillover Effect and SVM (비대칭적 전이효과와 SVM을 이용한 변동성 매도전략의 수익성 개선)

  • Kim, Sun Woong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.119-133
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    • 2020
  • Fama asserted that in an efficient market, we can't make a trading rule that consistently outperforms the average stock market returns. This study aims to suggest a machine learning algorithm to improve the trading performance of an intraday short volatility strategy applying asymmetric volatility spillover effect, and analyze its trading performance improvement. Generally stock market volatility has a negative relation with stock market return and the Korean stock market volatility is influenced by the US stock market volatility. This volatility spillover effect is asymmetric. The asymmetric volatility spillover effect refers to the phenomenon that the US stock market volatility up and down differently influence the next day's volatility of the Korean stock market. We collected the S&P 500 index, VIX, KOSPI 200 index, and V-KOSPI 200 from 2008 to 2018. We found the negative relation between the S&P 500 and VIX, and the KOSPI 200 and V-KOSPI 200. We also documented the strong volatility spillover effect from the VIX to the V-KOSPI 200. Interestingly, the asymmetric volatility spillover was also found. Whereas the VIX up is fully reflected in the opening volatility of the V-KOSPI 200, the VIX down influences partially in the opening volatility and its influence lasts to the Korean market close. If the stock market is efficient, there is no reason why there exists the asymmetric volatility spillover effect. It is a counter example of the efficient market hypothesis. To utilize this type of anomalous volatility spillover pattern, we analyzed the intraday volatility selling strategy. This strategy sells short the Korean volatility market in the morning after the US stock market volatility closes down and takes no position in the volatility market after the VIX closes up. It produced profit every year between 2008 and 2018 and the percent profitable is 68%. The trading performance showed the higher average annual return of 129% relative to the benchmark average annual return of 33%. The maximum draw down, MDD, is -41%, which is lower than that of benchmark -101%. The Sharpe ratio 0.32 of SVS strategy is much greater than the Sharpe ratio 0.08 of the Benchmark strategy. The Sharpe ratio simultaneously considers return and risk and is calculated as return divided by risk. Therefore, high Sharpe ratio means high performance when comparing different strategies with different risk and return structure. Real world trading gives rise to the trading costs including brokerage cost and slippage cost. When the trading cost is considered, the performance difference between 76% and -10% average annual returns becomes clear. To improve the performance of the suggested volatility trading strategy, we used the well-known SVM algorithm. Input variables include the VIX close to close return at day t-1, the VIX open to close return at day t-1, the VK open return at day t, and output is the up and down classification of the VK open to close return at day t. The training period is from 2008 to 2014 and the testing period is from 2015 to 2018. The kernel functions are linear function, radial basis function, and polynomial function. We suggested the modified-short volatility strategy that sells the VK in the morning when the SVM output is Down and takes no position when the SVM output is Up. The trading performance was remarkably improved. The 5-year testing period trading results of the m-SVS strategy showed very high profit and low risk relative to the benchmark SVS strategy. The annual return of the m-SVS strategy is 123% and it is higher than that of SVS strategy. The risk factor, MDD, was also significantly improved from -41% to -29%.

Sex- and age group-specific associations between intakes of dairy foods and pulses and bone health in Koreans aged 50 years and older: Based on 2008~2011 Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (50세 이상 한국인의 성·연령군별 우유류와 두류 섭취량과 골 건강과의 관련성 : 2008~2011 국민건강영양조사 자료를 이용하여)

  • Seo, Hyun-Bi;Choi, Young-Sun
    • Journal of Nutrition and Health
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    • v.49 no.3
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    • pp.165-178
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    • 2016
  • Purpose: This study was performed to examine associations of intakes of milk and dairy products, pulses, and soy foods with bone health in Koreans aged 50 yr and older. Methods: A total of 3,201 men and 3,581 women aged 50 yr and older who participated in the 2008~2011 Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey were grouped by sex and age groups of 50~64 yr and 65 yr and older. Subjects within each sex and age group were divided into three bone health groups: normal, osteopenia, and osteoporosis groups based on bone mineral density. Intakes of nutrients and foods derived from 24-hour recall data were compared among three bone health groups. Associations between intake frequencies of foods, including milk, yogurt, tofu, or soy milk, and osteoporosis risk were evaluated based on confounding risk factor-adjusted logistic regression. Results: Calcium intake was in the order of normal, osteopenia, and osteoporosis in men (p < 0.01) and women (p < 0.05) aged 50~64 yr as well as in men aged 65 yr and older (p < 0.001). In women aged 50~64 yr, intake of milk and dairy products was lower in the osteoporosis group (p < 0.01) as compared with the osteopenia group. Intake of pulses or tofu was not significantly different among bone health groups. Odds ratio (OR) for milk intake frequency (${\geq}2$ times/week) compared to intake frequency less than 1 time/month was 0.45 (95% CI 0.24~0.85, p for trend = 0.022) in men aged 65 yr and older. The OR for yogurt intake frequency (1 time/month~1 time/week) was 0.47 (95% CI 0.30~0.73, p for trend = 0.019) in women aged 50~64 yr. Intake frequency of tofu or soy milk was not associated with reduced risk of osteoporosis in all groups. Conclusion: Dairy food intake was significantly associated with bone health, and its effect was sex- and age group-specific, whereas soy food intake was not. Dietary intervention to prevent osteoporosis would be effective for women aged 50~64 yr old and for men aged 65 yr and older.

Radiation Therapy and Chemotherapy after Breast Conserving Surgery for Invasive Breast Cancer: An Intermediate Result (침윤성 유방암에서 유방보존수술 후 방사선치료 및 항암화학 병용치료의 성적 및 위험인자 분석)

  • Lee, Seok-Ho;Choi, Jin-Ho;Lee, Young-Don;Park, Heoung-Kyu;Kim, Hyun-Young;Park, Se-Hoon;Lee, Kyu-Chan
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.16-25
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    • 2007
  • [ $\underline{Purpose}$ ]: Breast conserving surgery (BCS) followed by chemotherapy (CTx.) and radiation therapy (RT) is widely performed for the treatment of early breast cancer. This retrospective study was undertaken to evaluate our interim results in terms of failure patterns, survival and relative risk factors. $\underline{Materials\;and\;Methods}$: From January 1999 through December 2003, 129 patients diagnosed with invasive breast cancer and treated with BCS followed by RT were subject to retrospective review. The median age of the patients was 45 years (age distribution, $27{\sim}76$ years). The proportions of patients according to their tumor, nodes, and metastases (TNM) stage were 65 (50.4%) in stage I, 41 (31.7%) in stage IIa, 13 (10.1%) in stage IIb, 9 (7.0%) in stage III, and 1 patient (0.8%) in stage IIIc. For 32 patients (24.8%), axillary node metastasis was found after dissection. BCS consisted of quadrantectomy in 115 patients (89.1%) and lumpectomy in 14 patients (10.6%). Axillary node dissection at axillary level I and II was performed for 120 patients (93%). For 7 patients (5.4%), only sentinel node dissection was performed with BCS. For 2 patients (1.6%) axillary dissection of any type was not performed. Postoperative RT was given with 6 MV X-rays. A tumor dose of 50.4 Gy was delivered to the entire breast area using a tangential field with a wedge compensator. An aditional dose of $9{\sim}16\;Gy$ was given to the primary tumor bed areas with electron beams. In 30 patients (23.3%), RT was delivered to the supraclavicular node. Most patients had adjuvant CTx. with $4{\sim}6$ cycles of CMF (cyclophosphamide, methotrexate, 5-fluorouracil) regimens. The median follow-up period was 50 months (range: $17{\sim}93$ months). $\underline{Results}$: The actuarial 5 year survival rate (5Y-OSR) was 96.9%, and the 5 year disease free survival rate (5Y-DFSR) was 93.7%. Local recurrences were noted in 2 patients (true: 2, regional node: 1) as the first sign of recurrence at a mean time of 29.3 months after surgery. Five patients developed distant metastases as the first sign of recurrence at $6{\sim}33$ months (mean 21 months). Sites of distant metastatic sites were bone in 3 patients, liver in 1 patient and systemic lesions in 1 patient. Among the patients with distant metastatic sites, two patients died at 17 and 25 months during the follow-up period. According to stage, the 5Y-OSR was 95.5%, 100%, 84.6%, and 100% for stage I, IIa, IIb, and III respectively. The 5Y-DFSR was 96.8%, 92.7%, 76.9%, and 100% for stage I, IIa, IIb, and III respectively. Stage was the only risk factor for local recurrence based on univariate analysis. Ten stage III patients included in this analysis had a primary tumor size of less than 3 cm and had more than 4 axillary lymph node metastases. The 10 stage III patients received not only breast RT but also received posterior axillary boost RT to the supraclavicular node. During the median 53.3 months follow-up period, no any local or distant failure was found. Complications were asymptomatic radiation pneumonitis in 10 patients, symptomatic pneumonitis in 1 patient and lymphedema in 8 patients. $\underline{Conclusion}$: Although our follow up period is short, we had excellent local control and survival results and reaffirmed that BCS followed by RT and CTx. appears to be an adequate treatment method. These results also provide evidence that distant failure occurs earlier and more frequent as compared with local failure. Further studies and a longer follow-up period are needed to assess the effectiveness of BCS followed by RT for the patients with less than a 3 cm primary tumor and more than 4 axillary node metastases.

Analysis of p53 and Retinoblasoma(Rb) Gene Polymorphisms in Relation to Lung Cancer in Koreans (한국인 폐암 환자에 대한 p53 및 Rb유전자의 다형성 분석)

  • Lee, Kyung-Sang;Sohn, Jang-Won;Yang, Suck-Chul;Yoon, Ho-Joo;Shin, Dong-Ho;Park, Sung-Soo;Lee, Jung-Hee;Lee, Chun-Geun;Cho, Youl-Hee
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.44 no.3
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    • pp.534-546
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    • 1997
  • Background : The p53 and retinoblastoma(Rb) tumor suppressor genes are associated with the pathogenesis of several types of human cancer. Substantial proportion of the primary lung cancers or cell lines have been reported to have the p53 and/or the Rb gene mutations. But, so far there is no report on the analysis of the Rb gene polymorphism as one of the genetic susceptibility marker. This study was undertaken to establish the gene frequencies of the polymorphic genotypes of the p53 and Rb genes in Koreans to evaluate the possible involvement of these genotypes as a risk factor of lung cancer. Methods : In this study 145 controls without previous and present tumor history and 128 lung cancer patients were subjected to analysis. The two intragenic polymorphisms of the p53 gene(exon 4/ AccII, intron 6/MspI) and one intron 17/XbaI polymorphism of the Rb gene were analysed by the method of polymersae chain reaction- restriction fragment length polymorphisms(PCR-RFLPs). The genotype of the intron 3/16 bp repeat polymorphism of p53 was determined by PCR and direct gel electrophoresis. Results : There were no significant differences in the genotype distributions of the p53 gene between lung cancer patients and controls. But heterozygotes(Arg/Pro) of the exon 4/AccII polymorphisms were slightly over-represented than controls, especially in the Kreyberg type I cancer, which was known to be associated with smoking. The intron 3/16 bp duplication and the intron 6/MspI polymorphisms were in complete linkage disequilibrium. About 95% of the individuals were homozygotes of the common alleles both in the 16 duplication and MspI polymorphisms, and no differences were deteced in the genotype distributions between lung cancer patients and controls. Overall genotype distributions of the Rb gene polymorphisms between lung cancer patients and controls were not significantly different However, the genotype distributions in the Kreyberg type I cancer were significantly different from those of controls(p = 0.0297) or adenocarcinomas(p = 0.0008). It was noticeable that 73.4% of the patients with adenocarcinomas were heterozygotes(r1/r2) whereas 39.2% of the Kreyberg type I cancer were heterozygous at this polymorphisms. In the lung cancer patients, significant differences were also noted between the high dose smokers and low dose smokers including non-smokers(p = 0.0258). The relative risk to Kreyberg type I cancer was significantly reduced in the individuals with the genotype of r1/r2(odds ratio = 0.46, 95% C.I. = 0.25-0.86, p = 0.0124). The combined genotype distribution of the exon 4 AccII of the p53 and the intron 17 Rb gene polymorphisms in Kreyberg type I cancers were significantly different from dose of controls or adenocarcinomas. The highest odds ratio were observed in the individuals with the genotypes of Arg/Pro and r2/r2(odds ratio = 1.97,95% C.I. = 0.84-4.59) and lowest one was in the patients with Arg/Arg, r1/r2 genotype(odds ratio = 0.54, 95% C.I. = 0.25-1.14). Conclusion : The p53 and the Rb gene polymorphisms modulate the risk of smoking induced lung cancer development in Koeans. However, the exact mechanism of risk modulation by these polymorphism remains to be determined. For more discrete clarification of associations between specific genotypes and lung cancer risk, the evaluations of these polymorphisms in other ethnics and more number of patients will be needed.

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A Study on Serum Lipid Levels in Elderly People in Wando Area - Based on Age, BMI, WHR - (완도지역 성인 및 노인의 혈청지질 수준에 관한 연구(I) - 연령, 신체 계측치를 중심으로 -)

  • Cha, Bok-Kyeong
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Food Science and Nutrition
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    • v.35 no.1
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    • pp.68-77
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    • 2006
  • This study was peformed to document the association between nutrient intakes, body mass index (BMI), waist/hip ratio (WHR), and a major risk factor for chronic diseases. A three-day dietary intake survey, using a 24 hour recall method, was obtained from 187 subjects aged 46 to 84 (mean age 65.3) living in Wando island area. The average daily mean energy intakes were 1869.0 kcal for male and 1943.9 kcal for female, respectively. Daily intakes of protein for male and female were 28.0 and 30.4 g, and those of fat were 31.5 and 28.51 g, respectively Carbohydrate dependency was decreased with age. Protein dependency was increased with age. The mean intakes of energy, protein, Vit. A, Vit. D, Vit. E, Ca, Zn did not meet Korean RDA for elderly. The level of serum triglyceride was higher in males than in females and showed the tendency to increase with age in both sexes, whereas HDL-cholesterol tended to decrease with age in both sexes. The levels of serum total-cholesterol and LDL-cholesterol were significantly higher in males than in females, particularly in the age of $46\~59$ (p<0.05). The level of atherogenic index (AI) was significantly higher in females than in males, particularly in the age of 80 and over (p<0.05) Based on these results, it is evident that people in island area did not consume enough nutrient. Specially, dietary intake of protein was not adequate. This study implies that triglyceride, total-cholesterol, LDL-cholesterol, AI were increased with increasing age, BMI and WHR.