• Title/Summary/Keyword: risk rating

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Application of Matrices and Risk Assessment of Industries and Processes using DMF (DMF 취급 사업장에 대한 매트릭스 적용 및 위험성 평가 연구)

  • Ha, Kwon Chul;Park, Dong-Uk;Yoon, Chung Sik;Choi, Sang Jun;Lee, Gwang Yong;Paik, Do Hyun;Nam, Tek Hyung;Lee, Jae Hwan;Lee, Jong Keun;Jung, Eun-Kyo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Occupational and Environmental Hygiene
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.303-309
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    • 2008
  • The reduction of risk within the workplace has long been focus of attention both through industry initiatives and legislation. Exposure matrices according to industries and processes treated DMF (N,N-Dimethylformamide) were constructed based on KOSHA (Korean Occupational Safety and Health Agency)'s 2005 exposure database which were gathered from Korean agencies of workplace hazards evaluation for business place. These exposure matrices were assessed by danger value (DV) that was calculated from combination of hazard rating, duration of use rating, and risk probability rating of exposure to chemical hazardous agents in accordance with Hallmark Risk Assessment Tool. The results of risk assessment is divided four kinds of control bands which were related with control measures. The applicability of risk assessment using exposure matrices was performed by field study and survey for high matrices group. This study found that more attentions should be paid to two industries, manufacture of sewn wearing apparel and manufacture of textiles, among 19 industries, and to 3 processes, coating, processing & mixing, and lab, among 80 processes because those were regarded as having the highest risk.

Probability of default validation in a corporate credit rating model (국내모회사와 해외자회사 신용평가모형의 적합성 검증 연구)

  • Lee, Woosik;Kim, Dong-Yung
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.605-615
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    • 2017
  • Recently, financial supervisory authority of Korea and international credit rating agencies have been concerned about a stand-alone rating that is calculated without incorporating guaranteed support of parent companies. Guaranteed by parent companies, most foreign subsidiaries keeps good credit rate in spite of weak financial status. However, what if the parent companies stop supporting the foreign subsidiaries, they could have a probability to go bankrupt. In this paper, we have validated a credit rating model through statistical measurers such as performance, calibration, and stability for Korean companies owning foreign subsidiaries.

Developing Corporate Credit Rating Models Using Business Failure Probability Map and Analytic Hierarchy Process (부도확률맵과 AHP를 이용한 기업 신용등급 산출모형의 개발)

  • Hong, Tae-Ho;Shin, Taek-Soo
    • The Journal of Information Systems
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.1-20
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    • 2007
  • Most researches on the corporate credit rating are generally classified into the area of bankruptcy prediction and bond rating. The studies on bankruptcy prediction have focused on improving the performance in binary classification problem, since the criterion variable is categorical, bankrupt or non-bankrupt. The other studies on bond rating have predicted the credit ratings, which was already evaluated by bond rating experts. The financial institute, however, should perform effective loan evaluation and risk management by employing the corporate credit rating model, which is able to determine the credit of corporations. Therefore, this study presents a corporate credit rating method using business failure probability map(BFPM) and AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process). The BFPM enables us to rate the credit of corporations according to business failure probability and data distribution or frequency on each credit rating level. Also, we developed AHP model for credit rating using non-financial information. For the purpose of completed credit rating model, we integrated the BFPM and the AHP model using both financial and non-financial information. Finally, the credit ratings of each firm are assigned by our proposed method. This method will be helpful for the loan evaluators of financial institutes to decide more objective and effective credit ratings.

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Combining Two Scales to Assess Risk Factors of Falling in Community-Dwelling Elderly Persons: A Preliminary Study (노인의 낙상에 영향을 주는 요인을 평가하기 위한 ABC-BBS의 적용: 사전연구)

  • Park, So-Yeon
    • Physical Therapy Korea
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.44-53
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    • 2008
  • The purpose of this preliminary study was to develop a measurement for assessing risk factors for falling in community-dwelling elderly persons. Rasch analysis and principal component analysis were performed to examine whether items on the Activities-Specific Balance Confidence (ABC), assessing self-efficacy, and items on the Berg Balance Scale (BBS), assessing balance function, contribute jointly to a unidimensional construct in the elderly. A total of 35 elderly persons (4 men, 31 women) participated. In this study, each item of ABC (16 items) and BBS (14 items) was scored on a 5-point ordinal rating scale from 0 to 4. The initial Rasch and principal component analysis indicated that 3 of the ABC items and 2 of the BBS items were misfit for this study. These 5 items were excluded from further study. After combining ABC and BBS, Rasch and principal component analyses were examined and finally 23 items selected; 12 items from ABC, 11 items from BBS. The 23 combined ABC-BBC items were arranged in order of difficulty. The hardest item was 'walk outside on icy sidewalks' and the easiest item was 'pivot transfer'. Although structural calibration of each 5 rating scale categories was not ordered, the other three essential criteria of Linacre's optimal rating scale were satisfied. Overall, the ABC-BBS showed sound item psychometric properties. Each of the 5 rating scale categories appeared to distinctly identify subjects at different ability levels. The findings of this study support that the new ABC-BBS scale measure balance function and self-efficacy. It will be a clinically useful assessment of risk factors for falling in the elderly. However, the number of subjects was too small to generalize our results. Further study is needed to develop a new assessment considering more risk factors of falling in elderly.

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Initiation of Pharmaceutical Care Service in Medical Intensive Care Unit with Drug Interaction Monitoring Program (내과계 중환자실 약료 서비스 도입과 약물상호작용 모니터링)

  • Choi, Jae Hee;Choi, Kyung Sook;Lee, Kwang Seup;Rhie, Sandy Jeong
    • Korean Journal of Clinical Pharmacy
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.138-144
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    • 2015
  • Objective: It is to evaluate the drug interaction monitoring program as a pilot project to develop a pharmaceutical care model in a medical intensive care unit and to analyze the influencing factors of drug interactions. Method: Electronic medical records were retrospectively investigated for 116 patients who had been hospitalized in a medical intensive care unit from October to December in 2014. The prevalence of adverse reaction with risk rating higher than 'D' was investigated by Lexi-$Comp^{(R)}$ Online database. The factors related with potential drug interaction and with treatment outcomes were analyzed. Results: The number of patients with a potential interaction of drug combination was 92 (79.3%). Average ages, the length of stay in the intensive care unit and the numbers of prescription drugs showed significant differences between drug interaction group and non-drug interaction group. Opioids (14.4%), antibiotics (7.2%), and diuretics (7.2%) were most responsible drug classes for drug interactions and the individual medications included furosemide (6.4%), tramadol (4.9%), and remifentanil (4.5%). There were 950 cases with a risk rating of 'C' (84.6%), 142 cases with a risk rating of 'D' (12.6%), and 31 cases with a risk rating of 'X' (avoid combination) (2.8%). The factors affecting drug interactions were the number of drugs prescribed (p < 0.0001) and the length of stay at intensive care unit (p < 0.01). The patients in intensive care unit showed a high incidence of adverse reactions related to potential drug interaction. Therefore, drug interaction monitoring program as a one of pharmaceutical care services was successfully piloted and it showed to prevent adverse reaction and to improve therapeutic outcomes. Conclusion: Active participation of a pharmacist in the drug management at the intensive care unit should be considered.

Corporate Bond Rating Using Various Multiclass Support Vector Machines (다양한 다분류 SVM을 적용한 기업채권평가)

  • Ahn, Hyun-Chul;Kim, Kyoung-Jae
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.157-178
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    • 2009
  • Corporate credit rating is a very important factor in the market for corporate debt. Information concerning corporate operations is often disseminated to market participants through the changes in credit ratings that are published by professional rating agencies, such as Standard and Poor's (S&P) and Moody's Investor Service. Since these agencies generally require a large fee for the service, and the periodically provided ratings sometimes do not reflect the default risk of the company at the time, it may be advantageous for bond-market participants to be able to classify credit ratings before the agencies actually publish them. As a result, it is very important for companies (especially, financial companies) to develop a proper model of credit rating. From a technical perspective, the credit rating constitutes a typical, multiclass, classification problem because rating agencies generally have ten or more categories of ratings. For example, S&P's ratings range from AAA for the highest-quality bonds to D for the lowest-quality bonds. The professional rating agencies emphasize the importance of analysts' subjective judgments in the determination of credit ratings. However, in practice, a mathematical model that uses the financial variables of companies plays an important role in determining credit ratings, since it is convenient to apply and cost efficient. These financial variables include the ratios that represent a company's leverage status, liquidity status, and profitability status. Several statistical and artificial intelligence (AI) techniques have been applied as tools for predicting credit ratings. Among them, artificial neural networks are most prevalent in the area of finance because of their broad applicability to many business problems and their preeminent ability to adapt. However, artificial neural networks also have many defects, including the difficulty in determining the values of the control parameters and the number of processing elements in the layer as well as the risk of over-fitting. Of late, because of their robustness and high accuracy, support vector machines (SVMs) have become popular as a solution for problems with generating accurate prediction. An SVM's solution may be globally optimal because SVMs seek to minimize structural risk. On the other hand, artificial neural network models may tend to find locally optimal solutions because they seek to minimize empirical risk. In addition, no parameters need to be tuned in SVMs, barring the upper bound for non-separable cases in linear SVMs. Since SVMs were originally devised for binary classification, however they are not intrinsically geared for multiclass classifications as in credit ratings. Thus, researchers have tried to extend the original SVM to multiclass classification. Hitherto, a variety of techniques to extend standard SVMs to multiclass SVMs (MSVMs) has been proposed in the literature Only a few types of MSVM are, however, tested using prior studies that apply MSVMs to credit ratings studies. In this study, we examined six different techniques of MSVMs: (1) One-Against-One, (2) One-Against-AIL (3) DAGSVM, (4) ECOC, (5) Method of Weston and Watkins, and (6) Method of Crammer and Singer. In addition, we examined the prediction accuracy of some modified version of conventional MSVM techniques. To find the most appropriate technique of MSVMs for corporate bond rating, we applied all the techniques of MSVMs to a real-world case of credit rating in Korea. The best application is in corporate bond rating, which is the most frequently studied area of credit rating for specific debt issues or other financial obligations. For our study the research data were collected from National Information and Credit Evaluation, Inc., a major bond-rating company in Korea. The data set is comprised of the bond-ratings for the year 2002 and various financial variables for 1,295 companies from the manufacturing industry in Korea. We compared the results of these techniques with one another, and with those of traditional methods for credit ratings, such as multiple discriminant analysis (MDA), multinomial logistic regression (MLOGIT), and artificial neural networks (ANNs). As a result, we found that DAGSVM with an ordered list was the best approach for the prediction of bond rating. In addition, we found that the modified version of ECOC approach can yield higher prediction accuracy for the cases showing clear patterns.

An Empirical Research on the Firm Value and Credit Rating of Development Expenses (개발비 지출이 기업가치와 신용등급에 미치는 영향)

  • Jin, Dong-Min
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.119-135
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    • 2018
  • Currently, Korean firms are making a lot of effort to invest in research and development (R&D) by spending a lot of development costs in order to cope with the 4th industrial revolution. On the other hand, the capital market of Korea, which is the main source of funding, has caused a lot of cost of capital for firms by its reorganization mainly with safe assets in the experience of foreign exchange crisis at the end of 1997, the sub-prime mortgage crisis in 2007 and the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in September 2008. Thus, this study empirically analyzed the effect of development expenses on credit rating and firm value. The credit rating was measured by commercial paper(CP) credit rating which is sensitive for investors in terms of risk because it is issued only by the credit of the firms. Firm value was defined as Tobin's Q, which has been widely used in prior studies. The results of the analysis are summarized as follows; Firstly, development expenses did not affect credit rating. Development expenses are recognized as intangible assets for uncertainty of economic benefits and long-term investment. Thus, it seems that there is no effect of development expenses on CP credit rating as CP credit rating is evaluated by short-term credit rating.

Construction of an Exposure Matrix Using a Risk Assessment of Industries and Processes Involving Dichloromethane (작업환경측정 자료를 활용한 Dichloromethane 노출 매트릭스 구축에 대한 연구)

  • Lee, Jae-Hwan;Park, Dong-Uk;Hong, Sung-Chul;Ha, Kwon-Chul
    • Journal of Environmental Health Sciences
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    • v.36 no.5
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    • pp.391-401
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    • 2010
  • A reduction in risk of occupational exposure to chemical hazards within the workplace has been the focus of attention both through industry initiatives and legislation. The aims of this study were to develop an exposure matrix by industry and process, and to apply this matrix to control the risk of occupational exposure to Dichloromethane (DCM). The exposure matrix is a tool to convert information on industry and process into information on occupational risk. The exposure matrix comprised industries and processes involving DCM, based on an exposure database provided by KOSHA (the Korean Occupational Safety and Health Agency), which was gathered from a workplace hazards evaluation program in Korea. The risk assessment of the exposure matrix was performed using Hallmark risk assessment tool. The results of the risk assessment were indicated by a Danger Value (DV) calculated from the combination of hazard rating (HR), duration of use rating (DUR), and risk probability rating (RPR) of exposure to the chemical, and were divided into four control bands which were related to control measures. The applicability of the risk assessment of the exposure matrix was evaluated by a field study, and survey of the employees of the exposure matrix groups. Among 45 industries examined, this study found that greater attention should be paid to two industries: the manufacture of other optical instruments and photographic equipment, and the manufacture of printing ink, and to one process among 47 examined, the packing process in the manufacture of printing ink, because these were regarded as carrying the highest risk. This tool of a risk assessment for the exposure matrix can be applied as a general exposure information system for hazard control, risk quantification, setting the occupational exposure limit, and hazard surveillance. The exposure matrix includes workforce data, and it provides information on the numbers of exposed workers in Korea by agent, occupation, and level of exposure and risk.

Development Strategy on the Risk Rating Method for Nationwide Emerging IT Infrastructure (국가단위 신규 IT인프라의 위험도 등급화 기법 개발 방향 연구)

  • Kim, Sangkyun
    • Journal of Industrial Technology
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    • v.30 no.B
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    • pp.11-16
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    • 2010
  • To provide a development strategy on the method which assesses a potential risk of nationwide emerging IT infrastructure in planning and design phase, and to classify the assessment result into 5 levels is the goal of this research. The development strategy provided in this paper could improve a benefit-cost-ratio of investments on emerging IT infrastructure. With a premature assessment of the potential risks of a nationwide emerging IT infrastructure which needs astronomical amount of public funds, it could show a way of systematic investments on security systems and improve a benefit-cost-ratio of investments on emerging IT infrastructure. Also, this approach might improve the safety of nationwide IT infrastructure. It could identify and provide an optimized solution for the potential risks of nationwide IT infrastructure.

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Government Necessity of Risk Rating Methodology for Nationwide Emerging IT Infrastructure (국가단위 신규 IT인프라의 위험수준 등급화모델에 대한 정책적 필요성)

  • Kim, Sang-Kyun
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Computer Information Conference
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    • 2010.07a
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    • pp.285-287
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    • 2010
  • 국가단위로 구축예정인 신규 IT인프라의 계획 및 설계 단계에서 신규 IT인프라에 잠재하는 위험도를 사전에 종합적으로 분석하기 위하여 현재까지는 위험분석 이론이 사용되고 있으나 여러 가지 적용상 한계점이 지적되고 있다. 본 연구는 이와 관련하여 신규 IT인프라의 위험도를 일정 단위의 등급으로 분류하여 정부기관, 서비스 제공자, 서비스 수요자가 정확하게 인지하고 대응할 수 있도록 하기 위하여 신규 IT인프라에 대한 위험수준 등급화 모델의 필요성을 제시하는 것이 목적이다.

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