• Title/Summary/Keyword: risk rating

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A Study on Utilization Ratio and Operation of Transmission Lines (송전선로의 이용률 평가 및 합리적 운영에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Dong-Min;Bae, In-Su;Cho, Jong-Man;Kim, Jin-O
    • The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers A
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    • v.55 no.10
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    • pp.426-432
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    • 2006
  • This paper describes the concepts of Static Line Rating (SLR) and Dynamic Line Rating (DLR) and the computational methods to demonstrate them. Calculation of the line capacity needs the heat balance equation which is also used for computing the reduced tension in terms of line aging. SLR is calculated with the data from the worst condition of weather throughout the year. Even now, the utilization ratio is obtained from this SLR data in Korea. DLR is the improved method compared to SLR. A process for DLR reveals not only improved line ratings but also more accurate allowed line ratings based on line aging and real time conditions of weather. In order to reflect overhead transmission line aging in DLR, this paper proposes the method that considers the amount of decreased tension since the lines have been installed. Therefore, the continuous allowed temperature for remaining life time is newly acquired. In order to forecast DLR, this paper uses weather forecast models, and applies the concept of Thermal Overload Risk Probability (TORP). Then, the new concept of Dynamic Utilization Ratio (DUR) is defined, replacing Static Utilization Ratio (SUR). For the case study, the two main transmission lines which are responsible for the north bound power flow in the Seoul metropolitan area are chosen for computing line rating and utilization ratio. And then line rating and utilization ratio are analyzed for each transmission line, so that comparison of the present and estimated utilization ratios becomes available. Finally, this paper proves the validity of predictive DUR as the objective index, with simulations of emergency state caused by system outages, overload and so on.

The Effect of the Products' Review on Consumers' Response

  • Feng, Zhou
    • The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.13-20
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    • 2016
  • Purpose - The purpose of this research is to discover whether the presence of the product average rating introduces biases or change the way people perceive information. We posit that review's overall rating has a predisposition effect on consumers' perception towards detailed review information. Research design, data, and methodology - To test these hypotheses, we conducted an empirical study on a real-world setting of online shopping platform. We choose the Amazon website to test our results. The data we use were collected by the Stanford Network Analysis Project1 (McAuley et al., 2013). Results - With a dataset containing reviews of seven product categories from amazon.com., our findings could possess more generalizability as they are produced on the typical and influential online market. Second, as our research provides alternative views of consumers' shopping behavior, it is better to test our hypotheses by data from the same source. Conclusions - Our study reveals the impact of the collective rating presence on consumers' diagnosticity perception and sheds light upon some of the conflictive results in prior studies. Our research generates implications to both theories and business practices, and suggests future directions for the research question.

Investment strategy using AESG rating: Focusing on a Korean Market

  • KIM, Eunchong;JEONG, Hanwook
    • The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.23-32
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    • 2022
  • Purpose: This study used ESG grade, but defined AESG, adjusted to the size of a company and examines whether it can be used as an investment strategy. Research design, data and methodology: The analysis sample in this study is a company that has given an ESG rating among companies listed on the Korea Stock Exchange. We examine the results through portfolio analysis and Fama-macbeth regression analysis. Results: As result of examining the long-only performance and the long-short performance by constructing quintile portfolios, it was observed that a significant positive return was shown. It was observed that there was an alpha that could not be explained in asset pricing models. Also, AESG had a return prediction effect in the result of a Fama-Macbeth regression that controlled corporate characteristic variables in individual stocks. Next, we confirmed AESG's usage through various portfolio composition. In the portfolio optimization, the Risk Efficient method was the most superior in terms of sharpe ratio and the construct multi-factor model with Value, Momentum and Low Vol showed statistically significant performance improvement. Conclusions: The results of this study suggest that it can be helpful in ESG investment to reflect the ESG rating of relatively small companies more through the scale adjustment of the ESG rating (i.e.AESG).

Decreased Concentration of Plasma Brain-Derived Neurotrophic Factor in Suicide Attempters (자살 시도자에서 혈장 Brain-Derived Neurotrophic Factor 농도 저하)

  • Won, Seong-Doo;Shim, Se-Hoon;Yang, Jong-Chul;Lee, Heon-Jeong;Lee, Bun-Hee;Han, Chang-Su;Kim, Kye-Hyun;Kim, Yong-Ku
    • Korean Journal of Biological Psychiatry
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.189-195
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    • 2005
  • Objects:Some studies have suggested that brain-derived neurotrophic factor(BDNF), one of the most important neurotrophins, is involved in pathophysiology of depression and suicide. This study was performed to determine whether there is an abnormality in plasma BDNF concentration in suicidal attempters. Methods:The subjects were 71 suicidal attempters who visited emergency rooms in multi-medical centers. All subjects had been interviewed by using Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV(SCID), Hamilton Depression Rating Scale(HDRS), Young Mania Rating Scale(YMRS), and Positive And Negative Syndrome Scale(PANSS). The severity of the suicidal behavior was measured by Lethality of Suicide Attempt Rating Scale(LSARS) and Risk-Rescue Rating(RRR) system. Seventy-one age, sex, and diagnosis matched non-suicidal psychiatric patients who were consecutively admitted to a psychiatric ward during the same period recruited as psychiatric controls. They were drug-naive or drug-free at least more than 2 months. In addition, 80 healthy controls were randomly selected as normal controls. Plasma BDNF level was measured by the enzyme linked immunosorbent assay(ELISA) methods. Results:In overall F-test, differences of the plasma BDNF levels among the groups were statistically significant(F=20.226, p<0.001). In the multiple comparisons(Scheffe), while mean levels of plasma BDNF between normal controls and non-suicidal psychiatric patients were similar(p=0.984), the BDNF levels of suicidal attempters were lower than those of other two groups(p<0.001). LSARS and RRR did not reveal any significant correlations with BDNF levels in suicidal attempters. Conclusion:These results suggest that reduction of plasma BDNF level is related to suicidal behavior and BDNF level may be a biological marker of suicidal behavior.

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Gender Differences in the Effect of Alcohol Use on Intent and Lethality of Suicidal Attempts (알코올 사용이 자살시도의 심각성과 치명도에 미치는 영향-성별 차이를 중심으로)

  • Lee, Jinhee;Min, Seongho;Ahn, Joung-Sook;Park, Ki-Chang;Kim, Min-Hyuk;Kim, Heungkyu
    • Korean Journal of Psychosomatic Medicine
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.236-243
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    • 2016
  • Objectives : The aim of this study was to clarify the role of alcohol use disorders and acute alcohol consumption in suicide attempts by gender. Methods : Data of 1,152 suicide attempters(487 males and 742 females) who had visited an emergency center was gathered. Suicide attempts were categorized into three groups according to alcohol use: an alcohol use disorder group(AUD), an acute alcohol use group(AAU), and a no-alcohol use group(NAU). The intent and lethality of suicide attempts were evaluated by Suicidal Intents Scale and Risk-Rescue Rating Scale. Results : For Suicidal Intents Scale score, the male AUD group revealed a significantly lower mean score than the male AAU one. However, there were no statistically significant differences for female subjects across subgroups. With regard to the Risk-Rescue Rating Scale score, there were no significant differences for males, while the AUD group showed both the lowest highest rescue scores and lowest risk-rescue scores within female groups. Conclusions : AUD in females was more likely regarding impulsive suicide attempts with high rescue chances. Consuming alcohol might have different effect on suicide attempts by gender and our study shows that alcohol use is an important risk factor according to gender, particularly with regard to female suicide attempts.

District-Level Seismic Vulnerability Rating and Risk Level Based-Density Analysis of Buildings through Comparative Analysis of Machine Learning and Statistical Analysis Techniques in Seoul (머신러닝과 통계분석 기법의 비교분석을 통한 건물에 대한 서울시 구별 지진취약도 등급화 및 위험건물 밀도분석)

  • Sang-Bin Kim;Seong H. Kim;Dae-Hyeon Kim
    • Journal of Industrial Convergence
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    • v.21 no.7
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    • pp.29-39
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    • 2023
  • In the recent period, there have been numerous earthquakes both domestically and internationally, and buildings in South Korea are particularly vulnerable to seismic design and earthquake damage. Therefore, the objective of this study is to discover an effective method for assessing the seismic vulnerability of buildings and conducting a density analysis of high-risk structures. The aim is to model this approach and validate it using data from pilot area(Seoul). To achieve this, two modeling techniques were employed, of which the predictive accuracy of the statistical analysis technique was 87%. Among the machine learning techniques, Random Forest Model exhibited the highest predictive accuracy, and the accuracy of the model on the Test Set was determined to be 97.1%. As a result of the analysis, the district rating revealed that Gwangjin-gu and Songpa-gu were relatively at higher risk, and the density analysis of at-risk buildings predicted that Seocho-gu, Gwanak-gu, and Gangseo-gu were relatively at higher risk. Finally, the result of the statistical analysis technique was predicted as more dangerous than those of the machine learning technique. However, considering that about 18.9% of the buildings in Seoul are designed to withstand the Seismic intensity of 6.5 (MMI), which is the standard for seismic-resistant design in South Korea, the result of the machine learning technique was predicted to be more accurate. The current research is limited in that it only considers buildings without taking into account factors such as population density, police stations, and fire stations. Considering these limitations in future studies would lead to more comprehensive and valuable research.

Development of a method to create a matrix of heavy rain damage rating standards using rainfall and heavy rain damage data (강우량 및 호우피해 자료를 이용한 호우피해 등급기준 Matrix작성 기법 개발)

  • Jeung, Se Jin;Yoo, Jae Eun;Hur, Dasom;Jung, Seung Kwon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.56 no.2
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    • pp.115-124
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    • 2023
  • Currently, as the frequency of extreme weather events increases, the scale of damage increases when extreme weather events occur. This has been providing forecast information by investing a lot of time and resources to predict rainfall from the past. However, this information is difficult for non-experts to understand, and it does not include information on how much damage occurs when extreme weather events occur. Therefore, in this study, a risk matrix based on heavy rain damage rating was presented by using the impact forecasting standard through the creation of a risk matrix presented for the first time in the UK. First, through correlation analysis between rainfall data and damage data, variables necessary for risk matrix creation are selected, and PERCENTILE (25%, 75%, 90%, 95%) and JNBC (Jenks Natural Breaks Classification) techniques suggested in previous studies are used. Therefore, a rating standard according to rainfall and damage was calculated, and two rating standards were synthesized to present one standard. As a result of the analysis, in the case of the number of households affected by the disaster, PERCENTILE showed the highest distribution than JNBC in the Yeongsan River and Seomjin River basins where the most damage occurred, and similar results were shown in the Chungcheong-do area. Looking at the results of rainfall grading, JNBC's grade was higher than PERCENTILE's, and the highest grade was shown especially in Jeolla-do and Chungcheong-do. In addition, when comparing with the current status of heavy rain warnings in the affected area, it can be confirmed that JNBC is similar. In the risk matrix results, it was confirmed that JNBC replicated better than PERCENTILE in Sejong, Daejeon, Chungnam, Chungbuk, Gwangju, Jeonnam, and Jeonbuk regions, which suffered the most damage.

A Study on Improvement of Safety Management of Low Voltage Electrical Equiment (일반용 저압전기설비의 안전등급제 도입에 관한 연구)

  • Jae-Phil Han;Yong-Sung Choi
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Electrical and Electronic Material Engineers
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    • v.36 no.6
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    • pp.598-602
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    • 2023
  • With the purpose of instilling an awareness of the safety of users of electrical equipment and inducing voluntary facility improvement through the safety rating system for general low voltage electrical equipment, simulation and field application of the safety rating of general low voltage electrical equipment were conducted. For the introduction and application of the safety rating system for general low-voltage electrical equipment, data related to domestic safety was investigated and analyzed, cases of introduction in other fields were reviewed, and for design, the 4M risk assessment method of the Korea Occupational Safety and Health Agency and the cases of safety index development in Korea were analyzed and standardized. Safety rating system simulations were conducted for general low-voltage electrical equipment, and problem improvement measures were prepared by analyzing the results through on-site verification and simulation applied to the initial design. Design standards for the introduction of the safety rating system for general low-voltage electrical equipment were prepared, and 394 youth training facilities were applied to the field to see if the design standards were practically applicable to the field. With the application of the safety rating system for low-voltage electrical equipment for general use, youth training facilities that had been classified as 'appropriate' were able to induce an upgrade to a higher level through voluntary facility improvement according to the application of grades (A to E). As a result of inducing voluntary repair projects based on the results of the 1st and 2nd inspection of youth training facilities, it was confirmed that 86 facilities received grade A, 225 facilities received grade B, and only 311 facilities received grade A to B out of a total of 394 facilities, and there was no grade E.

The application of simplified risk assessment for tunnel (터널 리스크 평가 기법의 적용성에 대한 연구)

  • Kim, Sang-Hwan;Lee, Chung-Hwan
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.63-74
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    • 2007
  • Unexpected ground conditions have always been a major problem for the construction of tunnel. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate the risk capacity before and/or during construction of new tunnel. This paper presents the simplified risk assessment system using modified stability number (N), namely Underground Risk Index (URI) system, to evaluate the tunnel risk possibility in the design stage. URI is a scoring system for risk possibility by rating the each appraisal elements. The modified stability number (N) which is one of risk factor in the Interaction Matrix parameters such as RQD, UCS, weathering, overburden, stability number, ground water-table, RMR, permeability and so on, is used in the system. In addition, the case study is performed in order to verify the applicability of URI-system in practice.

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Developing Fire-Danger Rating Model (산림화재예측(山林火災豫測) Model의 개발(開發)을 위(爲)한 연구(硏究))

  • Han, Sang Yeol;Choi, Kwan
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.80 no.3
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    • pp.257-264
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    • 1991
  • Korea has accomplished the afforestation of its forest land in the early 1980's. To meet the increasing demand for forest products and forest recreation, a development of scientific forest management system is needed as a whole. For this purpose the development of efficient forestfire management system is essential. In this context, the purpose of this study is to develop a theoretical foundation of forestfire danger rating system. In this study, it is hypothesized that the degree of forestfire risk is affected by Weather Factor and Man-Caused Risk Factor. (1) To accommodate the Weather Factor, a statistical model was estimated in which weather variables such as humidity, temperature, precipitation, wind velocity, duration of sunshine were included as independent variables and the probability of forestfire occurrence as dependent variable. (2) To account man-caused risk, historical data of forestfire occurrence was investigated. The contribution of man's activities make to risk was evaluated from three inputs. The first, potential risk class is a semipermanent number which ranks the man-caused fire potential of the individual protection unit relative to that of the other protection units. The second, the risk sources ratio, is that portion of the potential man-caused fire problem which can be charged to a specific cause. The third, daily activity level is that the fire control officer's estimate of how active each of these sources is, For each risk sources, evaluate its daily activity level ; the resulting number is the partial risk factor. Sum up the partial risk factors, one for each source, to get the unnormalized Man-Caused Risk. To make up the Man-Caused Risk, the partial risk factor and the unit's potential risk class were considered together. (3) At last, Fire occurrence index was formed fire danger rating estimation by the Weather Factors and the Man-Caused Risk Index were integrated to form the final Fire Occurrence Index.

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