• Title/Summary/Keyword: stochastic trends

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FURTHER EVALUATION OF A STOCHASTIC MODEL APPLIED TO MONOENERGETIC SPACE-TIME NUCLEAR REACTOR KINETICS

  • Ha, Pham Nhu Viet;Kim, Jong-Kyung
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.43 no.6
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    • pp.523-530
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    • 2011
  • In a previous study, the stochastic space-dependent kinetics model (SSKM) based on the forward stochastic model in stochastic kinetics theory and the Ito stochastic differential equations was proposed for treating monoenergetic space-time nuclear reactor kinetics in one dimension. The SSKM was tested against analog Monte Carlo calculations, however, for exemplary cases of homogeneous slab reactors with only one delayed-neutron precursor group. In this paper, the SSKM is improved and evaluated with more realistic and complicated cases regarding several delayed-neutron precursor groups and heterogeneous slab reactors in which the extraneous source or reactivity can be introduced locally. Furthermore, the source level and the initial conditions will also be adjusted to investigate the trends in the variances of the neutron population and fission product levels across the reactor. The results indicate that the improved SSKM is in good agreement with the Monte Carlo method and show how the variances in population dynamics can be controlled.

Effects of incorrect detrending on the coherency between non-stationary time series processes

  • Lee, Jin
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.27-34
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    • 2019
  • We study the effect of detrending on the coherency between two time series processes. Many economic and financial time series variables include nonstationary components; however, we analyze the two most popular cases of stochastic and deterministic trends. We analyze the asymptotic behavior of coherency under incorrect detrending, which includes the cases of first-differencing the deterministic trend process and, conversely, the time trend removal of the unit root process. A simulation study is performed to investigate the finite sample performance of the sample coherency due to incorrect detrending. Our work is expected to draw attention to the possible distortion of coherency when the series are incorrectly detrended. Further, our results can extend to various specification of trends in aggregate time series variables.

Regional Relative Price Disparities and Their Driving Forces

  • Chang, Eu Joon;Kim, Young Se
    • East Asian Economic Review
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.201-230
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    • 2017
  • This paper studies the long-run behavior of relative price dispersion among cities in Korea with a special emphasis on heterogeneous transitional patterns of price level dynamics. Formal statistical tests indicate considerable evidence for rejecting the null of relative price level convergence among the majority of cities over the sample period of 1985-2015. The analysis of gravity model suggests that the effect of transportation costs on intercity price level differentials is limited, while other socioeconomic factors, such as income, input factor prices, demographic structure, and housing price growth, play key roles in accounting for persistent regional price level disparities. Individual price levels are found to be better explained by a multiple-component model, and the deviations from PPP may be attributed to distinct stochastic common trends that are characterized by income and demographic structure.

Is There a Stochastic Non-fundamental Trend in Korean Stock Price?: Inference under Transformed Error Correction Model (우리나라 주가에는 펀더멘털과 무관한 비정상 추세가 존재하는가?: 공적분 및 베버리지-넬슨 분해 접근)

  • Kim, Yun-Yeong
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.35 no.2
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    • pp.107-131
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    • 2013
  • In this paper, we test and estimate the stochastic non-fundamental trend in Korean stock market. For this, following Kim (2011), we exploit that the long-run equilibrium stock price may be decomposed into fundamental and stochastic non-fundamental trends (i.e., the sum of dividend innovations and a part that are orthogonal with the dividend innovations) by using the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition and projections. In this VAR construction, there is an error correction mechanism through which stock prices converge to their long-run equilibrium, which also contain the stated stochastic non-fundamental trend as well as fundamental trend. The estimation and test results using yearly data from the Korea (1976-2012) indicated that fluctuations in stock prices during that period can be explained mainly not by the stochastic non-fundamental trend but by the dividend trend. However, during some periods like after Seoul Olympic Games, we may observe the non-fundamental trend affected to the stock price variation.

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Identification of flutter derivatives of bridge decks using stochastic search technique

  • Chen, Ai-Rong;Xu, Fu-You;Ma, Ru-Jin
    • Wind and Structures
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    • v.9 no.6
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    • pp.441-455
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    • 2006
  • A more applicable optimization model for extracting flutter derivatives of bridge decks is presented, which is suitable for time-varying weights for fitting errors and different lengths of vertical bending and torsional free vibration data. A stochastic search technique for searching the optimal solution of optimization problem is developed, which is more convenient in understanding and programming than the alternate iteration technique, and testified to be a valid and efficient method using two numerical examples. On the basis of the section model test of Sutong Bridge deck, the flutter derivatives are extracted by the stochastic search technique, and compared with the identification results using the modified least-square method. The Empirical Mode Decomposition method is employed to eliminate noise, trends and zero excursion of the collected free vibration data of vertical bending and torsional motion, by which the identification precision of flutter derivatives is improved.

Evaluation of One-particle Stochastic Lagrangian Models in Horizontally - homogeneous Neutrally - stratified Atmospheric Surface Layer (이상적인 중립 대기경계층에서 라그랑지안 단일입자 모델의 평가)

  • 김석철
    • Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.397-414
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    • 2003
  • The performance of one-particle stochastic Lagrangian models for passive tracer dispersion are evaluated against measurements in horizontally-homogeneous neutrally-stratified atmospheric surface layer. State-of-the-technology models as well as classical Langevin models, all in class of well mixed models are numerically implemented for inter-model comparison study. Model results (far-downstream asymptotic behavior and vertical profiles of the time averaged concentrations, concentration fluxes, and concentration fluctuations) are compared with the reported measurements. The results are: 1) the far-downstream asymptotic trends of all models except Reynolds model agree well with Garger and Zhukov's measurements. 2) profiles of the average concentrations and vertical concentration fluxes by all models except Reynolds model show good agreement with Raupach and Legg's experimental data. Reynolds model produces horizontal concentration flux profiles most close to measurements, yet all other models fail severely. 3) With temporally correlated emissions, one-particle models seems to simulate fairly the concentration fluctuations induced by plume meandering, when the statistical random noises are removed from the calculated concentration fluctuations. Analytical expression for the statistical random noise of one-particle model is presented. This study finds no indication that recent models of most delicate theoretical background are superior to the simple Langevin model in accuracy and numerical performance at well.

Testing of Stochastic Trends, Seasonal and Cyclical Components in Macroeconomil Time Series

  • Gil-Alana Luis A.
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.101-115
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    • 2005
  • We propose in this article a procedure for testing unit and fractional orders of integration, with the roots simultaneously occurring in the trend, the seasonal and the cyclical component of the time series. The tests have standard null and local limit distributions. However, finite sample critical values are computed, and several Monte Carlo experiments conducted across the paper show that the rejection frequencies against unit (and fractional) orders of integration are relatively high in all cases. The tests are applied to the UK consumption and income series, the results showing the importance of the roots corresponding to the trend and the seasonal components and, though the unit roots are found to be fairly suitable models, we show that fractional processes (including one for the cyclical component) may also be plausible alternatives in some cases.

Patent citation network analysis (특허 인용 네트워크 분석)

  • Lee, Minjung;Kim, Yongdai;Jang, Woncheol
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.29 no.4
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    • pp.613-625
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    • 2016
  • The development of technology has changed the world drastically. Patent data analysis helps to understand modern technology trends and predict prospective future technology. In this paper, we analyze the patent citation network using the USPTO data between 1985 and 2012 to identify technology trends. We use network centrality measures that include a PageRank algorithm to find core technologies and identify groups of technology with similar properties with statistical network models.

Nonlinear Correlation Dimension Analysis of EEG and HRV (뇌파의 상관차원과 HRV의 상관분석)

  • Kim, Jung-Gyun;Park, Young-Bae;Park, Young-Jae;Kim, Min-Yong
    • The Journal of the Society of Korean Medicine Diagnostics
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.84-95
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    • 2007
  • Background and Purpose: We have studied the trends of EEG signals in the voluntary breathing condition by applying the fractal analysis. According to chaos theory, irregularity of EEG signals can result from low dimensional deterministic chaos. A principal parameter to quantify the degree of Chaotic nonlinear dynamics is correlation dimension. The aim of this study was to analyze correlation between the correlation dimension of EEG and HRV(heart rate variability). We have studied the trends of EEG signals in the voluntary breathing condition by applying the fractal analysis. Methods: EEG raw data were measured by moving windows during 15 minutes. Then, the correlation dimension(D2) was calculated by each 40-seconds-segment in 15 minutes data, totally 36 segments. 8 channels EEG study on the Fp, F, T, P was carried out in 30 subjects. Results and Conclusion: Correlation analysis of HRV was calculated with deterministic non-linear data and stochastic non-linear data. 1. Ch1(Fp1), Ch4(F3), Ch4(F4) is positive correlated with In LF. 2. Ch1(Fp1), Ch3(F3) is positive correlated with In TF.

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Research Trends of Ergonomics in Occupational Safety and Health through MEDLINE Search: Focus on Abstract Word Modeling using Word Embedding (MEDLINE 검색을 통한 산업안전보건 분야에서의 인간공학 연구동향 : 워드임베딩을 활용한 초록 단어 모델링을 중심으로)

  • Kim, Jun Hee;Hwang, Ui Jae;Ahn, Sun Hee;Gwak, Gyeong Tae;Jung, Sung Hoon
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.36 no.5
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    • pp.61-70
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    • 2021
  • This study aimed to analyze the research trends of the abstract data of ergonomic studies registered in MEDLINE, a medical bibliographic database, using word embedding. Medical-related ergonomic studies mainly focus on work-related musculoskeletal disorders, and there are no studies on the analysis of words as data using natural language processing techniques, such as word embedding. In this study, the abstract data of ergonomic studies were extracted with a program written with selenium and BeutifulSoup modules using python. The word embedding of the abstract data was performed using the word2vec model, after which the data found in the abstract were vectorized. The vectorized data were visualized in two dimensions using t-Distributed Stochastic Neighbor Embedding (t-SNE). The word "ergonomics" and ten of the most frequently used words in the abstract were selected as keywords. The results revealed that the most frequently used words in the abstract of ergonomics studies include "use", "work", and "task". In addition, the t-SNE technique revealed that words, such as "workplace", "design", and "engineering," exhibited the highest relevance to ergonomics. The keywords observed in the abstract of ergonomic studies using t-SNE were classified into four groups. Ergonomics studies registered with MEDLINE have investigated the risk factors associated with workers performing an operation or task using tools, and in this study, ergonomics studies were identified by the relationship between keywords using word embedding. The results of this study will provide useful and diverse insights on future research direction on ergonomic studies.