• Title/Summary/Keyword: stochastic volatility model

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Uniform Ergodicity and Exponential α-Mixing for Continuous Time Stochastic Volatility Model

  • Lee, O.
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.229-236
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    • 2011
  • A continuous time stochastic volatility model for financial assets suggested by Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard (2001) is considered, where the volatility process is modelled as an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck type process driven by a general L$\'{e}$vy process and the price process is then obtained by using an independent Brownian motion as the driving noise. The uniform ergodicity of the volatility process and exponential ${\alpha}$-mixing properties of the log price processes of given continuous time stochastic volatility models are obtained.

The Stochastic Volatility Option Pricing Model: Evidence from a Highly Volatile Market

  • WATTANATORN, Woraphon;SOMBULTAWEE, Kedwadee
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.685-695
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    • 2021
  • This study explores the impact of stochastic volatility in option pricing. To be more specific, we compare the option pricing performance between stochastic volatility option pricing model, namely, Heston option pricing model and standard Black-Scholes option pricing. Our finding, based on the market price of SET50 index option between May 2011 and September 2020, demonstrates stochastic volatility of underlying asset return for all level of moneyness. We find that both deep in the money and deep out of the money option exhibit higher volatility comparing with out of the money, at the money, and in the money option. Hence, our finding confirms the existence of volatility smile in Thai option markets. Further, based on calibration technique, the Heston option pricing model generates smaller pricing error for all level of moneyness and time to expiration than standard Black-Scholes option pricing model, though both Heston and Black-Scholes generate large pricing error for deep-in-the-money option and option that is far from expiration. Moreover, Heston option pricing model demonstrates a better pricing accuracy for call option than put option for all level and time to expiration. In sum, our finding supports the outperformance of the Heston option pricing model over standard Black-Scholes option pricing model.

Comparison of the Korean and US Stock Markets Using Continuous-time Stochastic Volatility Models

  • CHOI, SEUNGMOON
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.40 no.4
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    • pp.1-22
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    • 2018
  • We estimate three continuous-time stochastic volatility models following the approach by Aït-Sahalia and Kimmel (2007) to compare the Korean and US stock markets. To do this, the Heston, GARCH, and CEV models are applied to the KOSPI 200 and S&P 500 Index. For the latent volatility variable, we generate and use the integrated volatility proxy using the implied volatility of short-dated at-the-money option prices. We conduct MLE in order to estimate the parameters of the stochastic volatility models. To do this we need the transition probability density function (TPDF), but the true TPDF is not available for any of the models in this paper. Therefore, the TPDFs are approximated using the irreducible method introduced in Aït-Sahalia (2008). Among three stochastic volatility models, the Heston model and the CEV model are found to be best for the Korean and US stock markets, respectively. There exist relatively strong leverage effects in both countries. Despite the fact that the long-run mean level of the integrated volatility proxy (IV) was not statistically significant in either market, the speeds of the mean reversion parameters are statistically significant and meaningful in both markets. The IV is found to return to its long-run mean value more rapidly in Korea than in the US. All parameters related to the volatility function of the IV are statistically significant. Although the volatility of the IV is more elastic in the US stock market, the volatility itself is greater in Korea than in the US over the range of the observed IV.

Performances of Simple Option Models When Volatility Changes

  • Jung, Do-Sub
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.73-80
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    • 2009
  • In this study, the pricing performances of alternative simple option models are examined by creating a simulated market environment in which asset prices evolve according to a stochastic volatility process. To do this, option prices fully consistent with Heston[9]'s model are generated. Assuming this prices as market prices, the trading positions utilizing the Black-Scholes[4] model, a semi-parametric Corrado-Su[7] model and an ad-hoc modified Black-Scholes model are evaluated with respect to the true option prices obtained from Heston's stochastic volatility model. The simulation results suggest that both the Corrado-Su model and the modified Black-Scholes model perform well in this simulated world substantially reducing the biases of the Black-Scholes model arising from stochastic volatility. Surprisingly, however, the improvements of the modified Black-Scholes model over the Black-Scholes model are much higher than those of the Corrado-Su model.

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Herd behavior and volatility in financial markets

  • Park, Beum-Jo
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.22 no.6
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    • pp.1199-1215
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    • 2011
  • Relaxing an unrealistic assumption of a representative percolation model, this paper demonstrates that herd behavior leads to a high increase in volatility but not trading volume, in contrast with information flows that give rise to increases in both volatility and trading volume. Although detecting herd behavior has posed a great challenge due to its empirical difficulty, this paper proposes a new methodology for detecting trading days with herding. Furthermore, this paper suggests a herd-behavior-stochastic-volatility model, which accounts for herding in financial markets. Strong evidence in favor of the model specification over the standard stochastic volatility model is based on empirical application with high frequency data in the Korean equity market, strongly supporting the intuition that herd behavior causes excess volatility. In addition, this research indicates that strong persistence in volatility, which is a prevalent feature in financial markets, is likely attributed to herd behavior rather than news.

Hidden Markov model with stochastic volatility for estimating bitcoin price volatility (확률적 변동성을 가진 은닉마르코프 모형을 통한 비트코인 가격의 변동성 추정)

  • Tae Hyun Kang;Beom Seuk Hwang
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.36 no.1
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    • pp.85-100
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    • 2023
  • The stochastic volatility (SV) model is one of the main methods of modeling time-varying volatility. In particular, SV model is actively used in estimation and prediction of financial market volatility and option pricing. This paper attempts to model the time-varying volatility of the bitcoin market price using SV model. Hidden Markov model (HMM) is combined with the SV model to capture characteristics of regime switching of the market. The HMM is useful for recognizing patterns of time series to divide the regime of market volatility. This study estimated the volatility of bitcoin by using data from Upbit, a cryptocurrency trading site, and analyzed it by dividing the volatility regime of the market to improve the performance of the SV model. The MCMC technique is used to estimate the parameters of the SV model, and the performance of the model is verified through evaluation criteria such as MAPE and MSE.

COMPARISON OF STOCHASTIC VOLATILITY MODELS: EMPIRICAL STUDY ON KOSPI 200 INDEX OPTIONS

  • Moon, Kyoung-Sook;Seon, Jung-Yon;Wee, In-Suk;Yoon, Choong-Seok
    • Bulletin of the Korean Mathematical Society
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    • v.46 no.2
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    • pp.209-227
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    • 2009
  • We examine a unified approach of calculating the closed form solutions of option price under stochastic volatility models using stochastic calculus and the Fourier inversion formula. In particular, we review and derive the option pricing formulas under Heston and correlated Stein-Stein models using a systematic and comprehensive approach which were derived individually earlier. We compare the empirical performances of the two stochastic volatility models and the Black-Scholes model in pricing KOSPI 200 index options.

Characteristics of Stochastic Volatility in Korean Stock Returns (우리나라 주식수익률의 확률변동성 특성에 관한 연구)

  • Chang, Kook-Hyun
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.213-231
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    • 2003
  • This paper uses the Efficient Method of Moments(EMM) of Gallant and Tauchen to estimate continuous-time stochastic volatility diffusion model for the Korean Composite Stock Price Index, sampled daily over $1995\sim2002$. The estimates display non-normality of stock index return, leptokurtic distribution, and stochastic volatility. Funker, this study suggests that two factor stochastic volatility model will be more desirable than one factor stochastic volatility model to estimate daily Korean stock return and also suggests that the stochastic volatility diffusions should allow for Poisson jumps of time-varying intensity.

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OPTIMAL PORTFOLIO SELECTION UNDER STOCHASTIC VOLATILITY AND STOCHASTIC INTEREST RATES

  • KIM, MI-HYUN;KIM, JEONG-HOON;YOON, JI-HUN
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.417-428
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    • 2015
  • Although, in general, the random fluctuation of interest rates gives a limited impact on portfolio optimization, their stochastic nature may exert a significant influence on the process of selecting the proportions of various assets to be held in a given portfolio when the stochastic volatility of risky assets is considered. The stochastic volatility covers a variety of known models to fit in with diverse economic environments. In this paper, an optimal strategy for portfolio selection as well as the smoothness properties of the relevant value function are studied with the dynamic programming method under a market model of both stochastic volatility and stochastic interest rates.