• 대기
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• 제25권3호
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• pp.511-520
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• 2015

Existing studies on radar rainfall uncertainties were performed to reduce the uncertainty for each stage by using bias correction during the quantitative radar rainfall estimation process. However, the studies do not provide quantitative comparison with the uncertainties for all stages. Consequently, this study proposes a suitable approach that can quantify the uncertainties at each stage of the quantitative radar rainfall estimation process. First, the new approach can present initial and final uncertainties, increasing or decreasing the uncertainty, and the uncertainty percentage at each stage. Furthermore, Maximum Entropy (ME) was applied to quantify the uncertainty in the entire process. Second, for the uncertainty quantification of radar rainfall estimation at each stage, this study used two quality control algorithms, two rainfall estimation relations, and two bias correction techniques as post-processing and progressed through all stages of the radar rainfall estimation. For the proposed approach, the final uncertainty (ME = 3.81) from the ME of the bias correction stage was the smallest while the uncertainty of the rainfall estimation stage was higher because of the use of an unsuitable relation. Additionally, the ME of the quality control was at 4.28 (112.34%), while that of the rainfall estimation was at 4.53 (118.90%), and that of the bias correction at 3.81 (100%). However, this study also determined that selecting the appropriate method for each stage would gradually reduce the uncertainty at each stage. Finally, the uncertainty due to natural variability was 93.70% of the final uncertainty. Thus, the results indicate that this new approach can contribute significantly to the field of uncertainty estimation and help with estimating more accurate radar rainfall.

• Journal of Advanced Marine Engineering and Technology
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• 제36권7호
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• pp.919-926
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• 2012

In order to control a LTI(Linear Time Invariant) system subjected to system noise and measurement noise, first of all, it is necessary to estimate the state of system with reliability. Kalman filtering technique has been widely used to estimate the state of the stochastic LTI system with stationary noise characteristics because of its estimation ability versus algorithm simplicity. However, it often fails to estimate the state of the LTI system of which system parameter uncertainty exists partly and/or input uncertainty exists. In this paper, a new estimation technique based on Kalman filter is suggested for stochastic LTI system under parameter uncertainty and/or input uncertainty. A fuzzy estimation algorithm against uncertainties is introduced so as to compensate the state estimate filtered by Kalman filter. In order to verify the state estimation performance of the suggested technique, several simulations are accomplished.

• 대한기계학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한기계학회 2004년도 추계학술대회
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• pp.1721-1726
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• 2004

Heat rate is a representative index to estimate the performance of turbine cycle in nuclear power plant. Accuracy of heat rate calculation is dependent on the accuracy of measurement for plant status variables. Uncertainty of heat rate can be modeled using uncertainty propagation model. We developed practical estimation model of heat rate uncertainty using the propagation and regression model. The uncertainty model is used in the performance analysis system developed for the operating nuclear power plant.

• 한국추진공학회지
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• 제24권3호
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• pp.18-30
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• 2020

본 연구는 고체추진기관의 추력측정불확도 추정 방법에 관한 것이다. 힘 측정불확도 추정 지침은 ISO와 국내외 기구에서 제공하고 있으나 모든 내용이 실험실에서 운용하는 하중시험기와 하중 센서의 교정을 중심으로 기술되고, 개념적으로 기술되어 있다. 추력시험대 불확도의 주요 원인인 교정식과 선형화 불확도의 추정에 대해서는 해당 지침을 직접 적용할 수는 없다. 본 논문에서는 측정불확도 기본 개념을 이용하여 교정식 불확도와 교정식의 선형화 불확도를 추정하는 식을 만들고, 이를 추력 시험대의 추력측정불확도에 추정하여 적용하였으며, 비교적 간단한 추력측정불확도 추정 방법을 제안하였다.

• 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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• 제어로봇시스템학회 1993년도 한국자동제어학술회의논문집(국내학술편); Seoul National University, Seoul; 20-22 Oct. 1993
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• pp.64-69
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• 1993

In this paper we present the performance bounds of the optimal FIR filter in continuous time systems with modeling uncertainty. The performance measure bounds are calculated from the estimation error covariance bounds of the optimal FIR filter and the suboptimal FIR filter. Performance error bounds range are expressed by the upper bounds on the estimation error covariance difference between the real and nominal values in case of the systems with noise uncertainty or model uncertainty. The performance bounds of the systems are derived on the assumption that the system uncertainty and the estimation error covariance are imperfectly known a priori. The estimation error bounds of the optimal FIR filter is compared with those of the Kalman filter via a numerical example applied to the estimation of the motion of an aircraft carrier at sea, which shows the former has better performances than the latter.

• 한국소음진동공학회논문집
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• 제24권7호
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• pp.509-516
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• 2014

This paper proposes estimation model of uncertainty in vibration measurement of shipboard equipment and analyzes the result of uncertainty estimation. Vibration of shipboard equipments affects underwater radiated noise that is important performance related to stealth of the naval vessel. Acceptance testing for shipboard equipment is required to guarantee the stealth performance of naval vessel. In measuring, detailed uncertainty estimation is essential to improve measuring reliability. Acceptance testing result of structure-borne noise and vibration is used to analyze uncertainty in vibration measurement of shipboard equipment.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제53권3호
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• pp.860-865
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• 2021

A data-based model, such as an AAKR model is widely used for monitoring the drifts of sensors in nuclear power plants. However, since a training dataset and a test dataset for a data-based model cannot be constructed with the data from all the possible states, the model uncertainty cannot be good enough to represent the uncertainty of estimations. In fact, the errors of estimation grow much bigger if the incoming data come from inexperienced states. To overcome this limitation of the model uncertainty, a new measure of uncertainty for a data-based model is developed and the predicted uncertainty is introduced. The predicted uncertainty is defined in every estimation according to the incoming data. In this paper, the AAKR model is used as a data-based model. The predicted uncertainty is similar in magnitude to the model uncertainty when the estimation is made for the incoming data from the experienced states but it goes bigger otherwise. The characteristics of the predicted model uncertainty are studied and the usefulness is demonstrated with the pressure signals measured in the flow-loop system. It is expected that the predicted uncertainty can quite reduce the false alarm by using the variable threshold instead of the fixed threshold.

• 한국환경과학회지
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• 제20권3호
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• pp.321-327
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• 2011

Bootstrap methods is the computer-based resampling method that estimates the standard errors and confidence intervals of summary statistics using the plug-in principle for assessing the accuracy or uncertainty of statistical estimates, and the BCa method among the Bootstrap methods is known much superior to other Bootstrap methods in respect of the standards of statistical validation. Therefore this study suggests the method of the representation and treatment of uncertainty in flood risk assessment and water resources planning from the construction and application of rainfall frequency analysis model considersing the uncertainty based on the nonparametric BCa method among the Bootstrap methods for the assessement of the estimation of probability rainfall and the effect of uncertainty considering the uncertainty of the parameter estimation of probability in the rainfall frequency analysis that is the most fundamental in flood risk assessement and water resources planning.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제51권5호
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• pp.439-449
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• 2018

수문 기상레이더는 강우량을 바로 추정하지 못하고 여러 단계의 정량적 강우량 추정과정을 거치게 되므로 많은 불확실성 발생요소가 존재한다. 불확실성 관련한 기존 연구들은 정량적 레이더기반 강우량 추정과정에서 보정방법을 이용하여 각 단계별 불확실성을 줄이는 연구들을 수행하였다. 하지만 기존 연구들은 전체 과정에 대한 포괄적인 불확실성을 나타내지 못하고 각 단계별 불확실성의 상대적인 비율도 제시하지 못하는 단점이 있다. 본 연구에서는 정량적 레이더강우량 추정과정의 각 단계별 불확실성을 정량화하고 불확실성 전파를 나타낼 수 있는 적합한 방법을 제시하였다. 첫 번째로 초기와 최종 불확실성, 각 단계별 불확실성의 변동과 상대적인 비율을 나타낼 수 있는 새로운 개념을 제안하였다. 두 번째로 레이더기반 추정과정의 불확실성 정량화와 전파과정을 분석하기 위해 Maximum Entropy Method (MEM)와 Uncertainty Delta Method (UMD)를 적용하였다. 세 번째로 레이더기반 강우량 추정과정의 불확실성 정량화를 위해 2개 품질관리 알고리즘, 2개 강우량 추정방법, 2개 후처리 강우량 보정방법을 2012년 여름철 18개 사례에 대하여 사용하였다. 적용결과, MEM에서 최종 불확실성(후처리 강우량 보정 불확실성: ME = 3.81)이 초기 불확실성(품질관리 불확실성: ME = 4.28)보다 작게 나타났으며, UMD에서도 최종 불확실성(UMD = 4.75)이 초기 불확실성(UMD = 5.33)보다 작게 나타나 불확실성이 감소하는 것으로 나타났다. 하지만 레이더강우량 추정단계의 불확실성은 증가하는 것으로 나타났다. 또한 레이더강우량 추정과정에서 각 단계별로 적합한 방법을 선정하는 것이 각 단계별로 불확실성이 감소시킬 수 있음을 확인하였다. 따라서 본 연구는 새로운 방법이 명확히 불확실성을 정량화할 수 있으며 정확한 정량적 레이더 강우추정에 기여할 것으로 판단한다.

• 한국소음진동공학회논문집
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• 제26권7호
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• pp.781-786
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• 2016

All measurements are subject to uncertainty and a measurement result is complete only when it is accompanied by a statement of the associated uncertainty. By international agreement, this uncertainty has a probabilistic basis and reflects incomplete knowledge of the quantity value. The "Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement", commonly known as the GUM, is the definitive document on this subject. The requirements for estimation of measurement uncertainty apply to all results provided by calibration laboratories and results produced by testing laboratories under the optional circumstances. In this paper, a procedure for estimation of measurement uncertainty from vibration testing is proposed on KS F 2868:2003 as an example. Both Type A and Type B evaluation of uncertainty are considered to calculate the combined standard uncertainty and expanded uncertainty.