초록
본 연구에서는 고속도로 교통관리시스템에서 VDS 교통정보 와 대상지역의 TCS로부터 여행시간을 수집하고, 이들 자료를 토대로 신경망 이론을 이용한 여행시간 추정(Estimation)모형을 구축하였다. 또한, 신경망 이론에 칼만필터기법(Kalman Filter Technique)을 연계하여 단위시간 동안의 여행시간을 예측(Prediction)하여, 고속도로 이용자에게 보다 향상된 실시간 여행시간정보를 제공할 수 있는 여행시간 추정 및 예측 알고리즘을 개발하였다. 신경망 모형의 여행시간 추정 방식과 현재 적용되고 있는 여행시간 산출 방식의 비교/분석을 위해 각 각의 여행시간 산출방식에 의한 평가지표별로 시행한 평가의 결과는 신경망 모형이 제시한 대부분의 지표에서 상대적으로 우수하게 나타났다.
The purpose of this study is to develop travel-time estimation model using neural networks and prediction model using neural networks and kalman-filtering technique. The data used in this study are travel speed collected from inductive loop vehicle detection systems(VDS) and travel time collected from the toll collection system (TCS) between Seoul and Osan toll Plaza on the Seoul-Pusan Expressway. Two models, one for travel-time estimation and the other for travel-time Prediction were developed. Application cases of each model were divided into two cases, so-called, a single-region and a multiple-region. because of the different characteristics of travel behavior shown on each region. For the evaluation of the travel time estimation and Prediction models, two Parameters. i.e. mode and mean were compared using five-minute interval data sets. The test results show that mode was superior to mean in representing the relationship between speed and travel time. It is, however shown that mean value gives better results in case of insufficient data. It should be noted that the estimation and the Prediction of travel times based on the VDS data have been improved by using neural networks, because the waiting time at exit toll gates can be included for the estimation of travel time based on the VDS data by considering differences between VDS and TCS travel time Patterns in the models. In conclusion, the results show that the developed models decrease estimation and prediction errors. As a result of comparing the developed model with the existing model using the observed data, the equality coefficients of the developed model was average 88% and the existing model was average 68%. Thus, the developed model was improved minimum 17% and maximum 23% rather then existing model .
