Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation (한국방재학회 논문집)

Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation (한국방재학회)
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Evaluating the Effects of Sprawl on Evacuation Time: An Exploratory Analysis from Texas Coastal Counties

긴급재난 대피시간에 대한 도시확산 현상의 효과에 관한 연구: 미국 텍사스 해변 지역사례 연구

  • Published : 2008.06.30
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Abstract

The objective of this research was to test a hypothesis that sprawl increases congestion, and so the estimated evacuation time become longer. For this, sprawl was thought to be poor accessibility so that vehicle miles of travel become longer. This research shows that the daily vehicle miles per lane mile that are thought to be an accessibility index had a strong and statistically significant relationship to the estimated evacuation time, while urban population density has no statistically significant relationship to the evacuation time. The result of this research recommends that we should consider sustainable land use patterns that decrease traffic demand by providing good accessibility.

본 연구의 목적은 무분별한 도시개발의 확산현상과 자연 재난 시 차량의 대피시간과의 관계를 살펴보고 그 연관성을 설명하는 것이다. 자연재난 학자들이 주장한 도시확산으로 인한 긴급대피시간의 지연에 대해 본 논문은 검증을 실시하였다. 본 논문에서 도시확산 측정의 두 가지 상반되는 개념들을 이용하여 무변별한 도시확산이 긴급대피 시간과 어떤 관계를 갖는지 알아보았다. 연구의 대상지역으로는 허리케인으로 인하여 거의 매년 긴급대피를 경험하고 있는 미국 텍사스 해안지역을 사례지역으로 삼았다. 또한 두 가지 다른 도시확산 지수들 (도시인구밀도와 접근성)과 긴급대피시간(ETSs)과의 부분 상관관계분석을 시도하였다. 결론은 다음과 같다. 도시 인구 밀도를 이용한 개념보다 접근성 개념을 통한 도시확산 측정이 통계적으로 더욱 유의미하다는 것이다. 구체적으로 일일 교통량을 이용한 접근성의 지수가 긴급대피시간과 강력한 관계를 가진다는 점이다. 이는 무분별한 도시확산으로 인한 교통시간의 지체가 재난 시 사람들의 대피에 악영향을 미친다는 것을 보여준다. 이러한 결론은 접근성을 높이기 위한 지속 가능한 토지이용 패턴이 긴급대피시간에도 좋은 영향을 미친다는 것을 의미한다.

Keywords

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