Journal of Wetlands Research (한국습지학회지)

Korean Wetlands Society (한국습지학회)
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Evaluation of the Uncertainties in Rainfall-Runoff Model Using Meta-Gaussian Approach

Meta-Gaussian 방법을 이용한 강우-유출 모형에서의 불확실성 산정

  • 김병식 (한국건설기술연구원 수자원연구실) ;
  • 김보경 (노이솔루션(주) 기술연구소) ;
  • 권현한 (한국건설기술연구원 수자원연구실)
  • Published : 2009.04.30
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Abstract

Rainfall-runoff models are used for efficient management, distribution, planning, and design of water resources in accordance with the process of hydrologic cycle. The models simplify the transition of rainfall to runoff as rainfall through different processes including evaporation, transpiration, interception, and infiltration. As the models simplify complex physical processes, gaps between the models and actual rainfall events exist. For more accurate simulation, appropriate models that suit analysis goals are selected and reliable long-term hydrological data are collected. However, uncertainty is inherent in models. It is therefore necessary to evaluate reliability of simulation results from models. A number of studies have evaluated uncertainty ingrained in rainfall-runoff models. In this paper, Meta-Gaussian method proposed by Montanari and Brath(2004) was used to assess uncertainty of simulation outputs from rainfall-runoff models. The model, which estimates upper and lower bounds of the confidence interval from probabilistic distribution of a model's error, can quantify global uncertainty of hydrological models. In this paper, Meta-Gaussian method was applied to analyze uncertainty of simulated runoff outputs from $Vflo^{TM}$, a physically-based distribution model and HEC-HMS model, a conceptual lumped model.

홍수나 가뭄 등 극한 사상을 예측하여 재해에 대비하거나 또는 수자원을 효율적으로 관리, 배분하기 위하여 강우-유출 모형이 이용되고 있다. 그러나 많은 수문학자들은 강우-유출 모형이 가질 수밖에 없는 불확실성에 대하여 언급하였다. 실제 유역에 내린 강우는 증발과 증산, 차단, 침투 등 여러 과정을 거쳐 유출로 이어지는데, 모형에서는 이러한 복잡한 물리적 과정을 단순화하여 표현하였으므로 불확실성이 반드시 존재할 수밖에 없는 것이다. 따라서 모형으로부터의 모의 결과를 신뢰할 수 있는지를 정량적으로 판단하는 과정이 이루어져야 한다. 본 논문에서는 현재까지 강우-유출 모형의 불확실성을 평가한 선행 연구 중 Montanari와 Brath(2004)가 제시한 Meta-Gaussian 기법을 이용하여 강우-유출 모형 모의 결과에 대한 불확실성을 검토하였다. 이 기법은 모형 오차의 확률 분포형으로부터 신뢰구간의 상한계와 하한계를 추정하는 방법으로 수문모형의 전역적 불확실성(Global Uncertainty)을 정량화할 수 있다. 본 논문에서는 동일한 강우사상에 대한 물리적 기반의 분포형 모형인 $Vflo^{TM}$ 모형과 개념적 준 분포형 모형인 HEC-HMS 모형으로부터 모의된 유출량을 Meta-Gaussian 기법을 적용하여 불확실성을 분석하였다.

Keywords

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