KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research (대한토목학회논문집)

Korean Society of Civil Engeneers (대한토목학회)
권호 표지
DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

Stochastic Disaggregation and Aggregation of Localized Uncertainty in Pavement Deterioration Process

포장파손과정의 지역적 불확실성에 대한 확률적 분해와 조합

  • 한대석 (한국건설기술연구원, SOC 성능연구소, 도로포장연구실)
  • Received : 2013.02.25
  • Accepted : 2013.05.04
  • Published : 2013.07.30
Download PDF
⟨ Previous Next ⟩

Abstract

Precise analysis on deterioration processes of road pavements is not so simple matter due to severe uncertainty originated from a lot of explanatory variables engaged in. For those reasons, most analytical models for pavement deterioration prediction have often preferred to probabilistic approaches than deterministic models. However, the general probabilistic approaches that treat overall characteristics of population or entire sample would not be suitable for providing detail or localized information on their changing process. Considering the aspects, this paper aimed to suggest a stochastic disaggregation method to analyze the localized deterioration speeds and its variances changed by time and condition states. In addition, life expectancies and their uncertainty were estimated by probabilistic algorithm using the disaggregated stochastic process. For an empirical study, pavement inspection data (crack) accumulated from 2003 to 2010 from Korean national highway network was applied. This study can contribute to securing reliability of life cycle cost analysis, which is one of the primary analyses in road asset management, with much advanced deterioration forecasting functions. In addition, it would be meaningful trials as fundamental research for preventive maintenance strategy that demands essential understanding on changing process of the deterioration speed of pavement.

도로포장의 파손과정에는 다양하고 복합적인 원인에서 비롯되는 불확실성이 포함되어 있어 정확한 해석이 쉽지 않다. 이로 인해 최근에는 결정론적 모형보다는 확률이론이 보다 많이 활용되고 있으나, 파손의 전체적 특성만을 설명하는 일반적인 분석방안으로는 포장파손특성의 변화과정에 대해 구체적인 정보를 제공하기 어렵다. 이에 본 연구에서는 포장파손과정을 상태와 시간기준으로 분해함으로써 지역적으로 이질성을 띄는 포장파손속도와 그 분산에 대해 구체적으로 파악하고자 하였다. 또한, 분해된 확률과정을 다시 조합하는 과정을 통해 포장의 기대수명과 불확실성을 예측해 보았다. 실증분석을 위해 일반국도포장관리시스템에서 2003년부터 2010년까지 수집된 균열률 자료를 활용하였다. 이러한 시도들은 자산관리의 주요기법 중 하나인 생애주기비용분석의 신뢰성을 높일 수 있으며, 파손속도의 변화과정에 대한 이해가 필수적인 예방적 유지보수전략에 관한 기반연구로써도 중요한 의의가 있다.

Keywords

References

  1. Bell, J. R. (1968). "Algorithm 334: Normal Random Deviates." Communications of the Association for Computing Machinery (CACM), Vol. 11, No. 7, pp. 498-499.
  2. Bennett, C. R. and Greenwood, I. D. (2000). Highway Development and Management Series Vol. 7: Modeling Road User and Environmental Effects in HDM-4, The World Road Association (PIARC), La Defense.
  3. Box, G. E. P. and Muller, M. E. (1958). "A note on the generation of random normal deviates." The Annals of Mathematical Statistics, Vol. 29, No. 2, pp. 610-611. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177706645
  4. Chatti, K. and Zaabar, I. (2012). NCHRP report 720: Estimating the effects of pavement condition on vehicle operating costs, Transportation Research Board (TRB), Washington, D.C.
  5. Do, M.-S. (2011). "Comparative analysis on mean life reliability with functionally classified pavement sections." KSCE J. of Civil Engineering, Vol. 15, No. 2, pp. 261-270 (in Korean). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12205-011-1065-4
  6. Do, M.-S., Han, D.-S., Yoo, I.-K. and Lee, S.-H. (2006). "Performance and economic analysis for rut-resistance pavement considering life cycle cost." J. of the Korean Society of Civil Engineering, Vol. 26, 5D, pp. 783-796 (in Korean).
  7. Do, M.-S., Han, D.-S., Lee, J.-D. and Lee, Y.-U. (2007). "Economic analysis for road pavement maintenance by using HDM." J. of the Korean Society of Civil Engineering, Vol. 27, 3D, pp. 311-323 (in Korean).
  8. Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) (1998). Life-cycle cost analysis in pavement design: In Search of Better Investment Decisions, FHWA-SA-98-079, Federal highway Administration, Washington, DC, U.S.
  9. Han, D.-S. and Do, M.-S. (2012a). "Correction of latent errors in pavement deterioration data using statistical methods." J. of the Korean Society of Civil Engineering. Vol. 32, No. 6D, pp. 587-598 (in Korean). https://doi.org/10.12652/Ksce.2012.32.6D.587
  10. Han, D.-S. and Do, M.-S. (2012b). "Development of budget-oriented managerial accounting information system for pavement management." KSCE J. of Civil Engineering (in review) (in Korean).
  11. Han, D.-S. and Do, M.-S. (2012c). "Development of Korean life cycle cost analysis model for road pavement asset management." J. of the Korean Society of Civil Engineers (in review) (in Korean).
  12. Han, D.-S. and Do, M.-S. (2012d). "Estimation of life expectancy and budget demands based on maintenance strategy." J. of the Korean Society of Civil Engineers, Vol. 32, No. 4D, pp. 345-356 (in Korean). https://doi.org/10.12652/Ksce.2012.32.4D.345
  13. Han, D.-S. and Do, M.-S. (2012e). "Life cycle cost analysis on pavement inspection intervals considering delay in maintenance." KSCE J. of Civil Engineering (in review) (in Korean).
  14. Han, D.-S. and Kobayashi, K. (2012f). "Criteria for the development and improvement of PMS models." KSCE J. of Civil Engineering (Forthcoming, Sep.2013) (in Korean).
  15. Han, D., Kaito, K. and Kobayashi, K. (2012g). "Application of Bayesian estimation method with Markov hazard model to improve deterioration forecasts for infrastructure management." KSCE J. of Civil Engineering (in review) (in Korean).
  16. Han, D.-S., Kobayashi, K. and Do, M.-S. (2012h). "Section-based multifunctional calibration method for pavement deterioration." KSCE J. of Civil Engineering, Vol. 17, No. 2, pp. 386-394 (in Korean).
  17. Han, D.-S. (2011). Development of Open-source Hybrid Pavement Management System for an International Standard, A PhD. Dissertation, Kyoto University, Kyoto.
  18. Han, D.-S., Do, M.-S., Kim, S.-H. and Kim, J.-H. (2007). "Life cycle cost analysis of pavement maintenance standard considering user and socio-environmental cost." J. of the Korean Society of Civil Engineering, Vol. 27, No. 6d, pp. 727-740 (in Korean).
  19. Kaito, K. and Kobayashi, K. (2007). "Bayesian estimation of Markov deterioration hazard model." J. of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Vol. 63(A), No. 2, pp. 336-355 (in Japanese).
  20. Kaito, K., Kobayashi, K., Aoki, K. and Matsuoka, K. (2012). "Hierarchical Bayesian estimation of mixed hazard models." J. of Japan Society of Civil Engineers (Infrastructure planning reviews div.), Vol. 68, No. 4, pp. 255-271 (in Japanese). https://doi.org/10.2208/jscejipm.68.255
  21. Knopp, R. (1969). "Remark on algorithm 334 [G5]: normal random deviates." Communications of the Association for Computing Machinery (CACM), Vol. 12, No. 5, pp. 275-281. https://doi.org/10.1145/362946.362982
  22. Kobayashi, K., Do, M.-S. and Han, D.-S. (2010a). "Estimation of Markovian transition probabilities for pavement deterioration forecasting." KSCE J. of Civil Engineering, Vol. 14, No. 3, pp. 341-351 (in Korean). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12205-010-0343-x
  23. Kobayashi, K., Ejiri, R. and Do, M.-S. (2008), "Pavement management accounting system." J. of Infrastructure Systems, ASCE., Vol. 14, No. 2, pp. 159-168. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)1076-0342(2008)14:2(159)
  24. Kobayashi, K., Kaito, K. and Nam, L. T. (2012). "A statistical deterioration forecasting method using hidden Markov model with measurement error." Transportation Research-Part B, Vol. 46, pp. 544-561. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trb.2011.11.008
  25. Kobayashi, K., Kaito, K. and Nam, L. T. (2010b). "Deterioration forecasting model with multistage Weibull hazard functions." J. of Infrastructure Systems, ASCE., Vol. 16, No. 4, pp. 282-291. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)IS.1943-555X.0000033
  26. Korea Institute of Construction Technology (KICT) (2009). Final-report of the national highway pavement management system 2008, Ministry of Land, Transportation, and Maritime Affair (MLTM) (in Korean).
  27. Markov, A. A. (1971). Extension of the limit theorems of probability theory to a sum of variables connected in a chain, Reprinted in Appendix B of (R. Howard, 2007) Dynamic Probabilistic Systems, Volume 1: Markov Chains, John Wiley and Sons.
  28. Morosiuk, G. (1998). Derivation of a new rut depth model for the structural deformation component in HDM-4, TRL Project Report PR/ORC/610/98, Transport Research Laboratory, Crowthorne, UK.
  29. Morosiuk, G., Reley, M, J. and Odoki, J. B. (2000). Highway development and management series: Vol. 6 - Modelling road deterioration and works effects, The World Road Association (PIARC), La Defense, France.
  30. Nam, L. T., Kaito, K., Kobayashi, K., Okizuka, R. (2012). "A Posson hidden Markov model for pavement deterioration prediction." J. of Japan Society of Civil Engineers (JSCE), Vol. 68, No. 2, pp. 62-79 (in Japanese).
  31. NDLI (1995). Modeling road deterioration and maintenance effect in HDM-4(Final report), Asian Development Bank project RETA 5549, N.D. Lea International, Vancouver.
  32. Odoki, J. B. and Kerali, H. G. R. (2000). Highway development and management series: Vol. 4 - Analytical framework and model descriptions, The World Road Association (PIARC), La Defense, France.
  33. Obama, K., Okada, K., Kaito, K. and Kobayashi, K. (2008). "Disaggregated hazard rates evaluation and bench-marking." J. of Japan Society of Civil Engineers(JSCE), Vol. 64(A), No. 4, pp. 857-874 (in Japanese).
  34. Parkman, C. C. and Rolt, J. (1997). Characterisation of pavement strength in HDM-III and possible changes for HDM-4, TRL Project Report PR/ORC/587/97, Transport Research Laboratory, Crowthorne, UK.
  35. Paterson, W. D. O. (1987). Road Deterioration and Maintenance Effects, World Bank Publications, Washington, D.C., USA.
  36. Tsuda, Y., Kaito, K., Aoki, K. and Kobayashi, K. (2006). "Estimating Markovian transition probabilities for bridge deterioration forecasting." J. of Structural Engineering and Earthquake Engineering, JSCE., Vol. 23, No. 2, pp. 241-256. https://doi.org/10.2208/jsceseee.23.241s

Cited by

  1. Prediction of Asphalt Pavement Service Life using Deep Learning vol.20, pp.2, 2018, https://doi.org/10.7855/IJHE.2018.20.2.057