Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention

Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention (아시아태평양암예방학회)
권호 표지
DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

Projection of Cancer Incident Cases for India - Till 2026

  • Dsouza, Neevan D.R. (Department of Community Medicine, Yenepoya Medical College, Yenepoya University) ;
  • Murthy, N.S. (Department of Community Medicine, MS Ramaiah Medical College) ;
  • Aras, R.Y. (Department of Community Medicine, Yenepoya Medical College, Yenepoya University)
  • Published : 2013.07.30
Download PDF
⟨ Previous Next ⟩

Abstract

Projection of cancer incidence is essential for planning cancer control actions, health care and allocation of resources. Here we project the cancer burden at the National and State level to understand the magnitude of cancer problem for the various calendar years from 2011 to 2026 at 5-yearly intervals. The age, sex and site-wise cancer incidence data along with populations covered by the registries were obtained from the report of National Cancer Registry Programme published by Indian Council of Medical Research for the period 2001-2004. Pooled age sex specific cancer incidence rates were obtained by taking weighted averages of these seventeen registries with respective registry populations as weights. The pooled incidence rates were assumed to represent the country's incidence rates. Populations of the country according to age and sex exposed to the risk of development of cancer in different calendar years were obtained from the report of Registrar General of India providing population projections for the country for the years from 2001 to 2026. Population forecasts were combined with the pooled incidence rates to estimate the projected number of cancer cases by age, sex and site of cancer at various 5-yearly periods Viz. 2011, 2016, 2021 and 2026. The projections were carried out for the various leading sites as well as for 'all sites' of cancer. In India, in 2011, nearly 1,193,000 new cancer cases were estimated; a higher load among females (603,500) than males (589,800) was noted. It is estimated that the total number of new cases in males will increased from 0.589 million in 2011 to 0.934 million by the year 2026. In females the new cases of cancer increased from 0.603 to 0.935 million. Three top most occurring cancers namely those of tobacco related cancers in both sexes, breast and cervical cancers in women account for over 50 to 60 percent of all cancers. When adjustments for increasing tobacco habits and increasing trends in many cancers are made, the estimates may further increase. The leading sites of cancers in males are lung, oesophagus, larynx, mouth, tongue and in females breast and cervix uteri. The main factors contributing to high burden of cancer over the years are increase in the population size as well as increase in proportion of elderly population, urbanization, and globalization. The cancer incidence results show an urgent need for strengthening and augmenting the existing diagnostic/treatment facilities, which are inadequate even to tackle the present load.

Keywords

References

  1. Anstey KJ, Cherbuin N (2010).Is it wine, alcohol in general or the social context of alcohol drinking that confers health benefits? Int J Wine Res, 2, 9-11.
  2. Basu P, Chowdhury D (2009). Cervical cancer screening and HPV vaccination: a comprehensive approach to cervical cancer control. Indian J Med Res, 130, 241-6.
  3. Battorff JL, McKeown SB, Carey J, et al (2010). Young Women's responses to smoking and breast cancer risk information. Health Educ Res, 25, 668-77. https://doi.org/10.1093/her/cyp067
  4. Census of India (2011). Provisional population Totals. India: Census 2011.Ministry of Home Affairs. Government of India. http://censusindia.gov.in/2011-prov-results/ indiaatglance.html accessed on 25.7.2012
  5. Dhar M, Takiar R, Murthy NS (2006). A Comparison of distribution of age at diagnosis with age at mortality of cancer cases- does it helps in estimation of median duration of disease. Cancer Registry Abstract, National Cancer Registry Programme. Indian Council Med Res, 13, 3-11.
  6. Gastrin G, Miller AB, To T, et al (1994). Incidence and mortality from breast cancer in the mama program for breast screening in Finland 1973-1986. Cancer, 73, 2168-74. https://doi.org/10.1002/1097-0142(19940415)73:8<2168::AID-CNCR2820730822>3.0.CO;2-V
  7. Harvey BJ, Miller AB, Baines CJ, Corey PN (1997). Effect of breast self examination technique on the risk of death from breast cancer. CMAJ, 157, 1205-12.
  8. IARC ,GLOBOCAN 2008 (2010), International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC). http://globocan.iarc.fr/ factsheet.asp accessed on 25.7.2012
  9. Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) (2006). Assessment of Burden of Non-Communicable Diseases.
  10. Jayalekshmy PA, Akiba S, Nair Mk, et al (2008). Bidi smoking and Lung cancer incidence among males in Karunagapally cohort in Kerala, India. Int J Cancer, 123, 1390-7. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijc.23618
  11. Kurkure PA, Yeole BB (2006). Social inequalities in cancer with special reference to South Asian Countries. Asian Pac J Cancer Prev, 7, 36-40.
  12. Lima FEL, Latorre MDRDO, Costa MJC, Fisberg RM (2008). Diet and cancer in North East Brazil: evaluation of eating habits and food group consumption in relation to Breast Cancer. Cad Saude Publica, 24, 820-8. https://doi.org/10.1590/S0102-311X2008000400012
  13. Mishra GA, Pimple SA, Shastri SS (2011). An overview of prevention and early detection of cervical cancers. Indian J Med Paediatr Oncol, 32, 125-32. https://doi.org/10.4103/0971-5851.92808
  14. Moore MA (2009). Diverse Influences of Dietary Factors on cancer in Asia. Asian Pac J Cancer Prev, 10, 981-6.
  15. Moore MA, Sobue T (2010). Strategies for Cancer control on an Organ- Site Basis. Asian Pac J Cancer Prev, 10, 149-64.
  16. Murthy NS (2006). Trends and patterns of cancer load in India: an epidemiological estimation and analysis, (Mimeographed), Submitted to the Indian Council of Medical Research, New-Delhi.
  17. Murthy NS, Juneja A, Sehgal A, Luthra UK (1990). Cancer projection by the turn of century. Indian J Cancer, 27, 74-82.
  18. Murthy NS, Chaudhry K, Rath GK (2008). Burden of Cancer and projections for 2016, Indian Scenario: Gaps in the availability of Radiotherapy treatment facilities. Asian Pac J Cancer Prev, 9, 671-7.
  19. National Cancer Registry Programme (NCRP) (2001). A consolidated study of population based registries data, cancer statistics 1990-96, Indian Council Med Res, New Delhi.
  20. National Cancer Registry Programme (NCRP) (2005). Two year report of the population based registries 1999-2000, Incidence and distribution of cancer, Indian Council Med Res, New Delhi.
  21. National Cancer Registry Programme (NCRP) (2006). Consolidated Report of Population Based Cancer Registries 2001-2004. Indian Council Med Res. New Delhi.
  22. National Cancer Registry Programme (NCRP) (2010). Three year report of the Population Based Cancer Registries 2006- 2008. Indian Council Med Res, New Delhi.
  23. National Family Health Survey (NHFS-3) (2005-2006). India; volume I, Table13.10, page 433, Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of India.
  24. Notani PN (2001). Global variation in cancer incidence and mortality. Curr Sci, 81, 465-74.
  25. Parkin DM, Whelan SL, Ferlay J (2002). Cancer Incidence in Five Continents Vol.VIII. International Agency for research on Cancer, Lyon, France, IARC Scientific Publication No.155.
  26. Rao DN, Ganesh B, Desai PB (1994). Role of reproductive factors in breast cancer in a low risk area: a case control study. Brit J Cancer, 70,129-32. https://doi.org/10.1038/bjc.1994.261
  27. Reddy RK (2004). Role of Socioeconomic Status and Reproductive Factors in Breast Cancer- A case control study. Academic Dissertation. University of Tampere. School of Public Health. Finland.
  28. Registrar General of India (2006). Population projections for India and States- Report of the technical group on population projection, 2001-2026. Census of India 2001; Ministry of Health and Family welfare Govt of India. New-Delhi.
  29. Satyanarayana L, Asthana S (2008). Life time risk for development of ten major cancers in India and its trends over the years 1982 to 2000. Indian J Med Sci, 62, 35-44. https://doi.org/10.4103/0019-5359.39365
  30. Shin HR, Carlos MC, Varghese C (2012). Cancer Control in the Asia Pacific Region: current status and concerns. Jpn J Clin Oncol, 42, 867-81. https://doi.org/10.1093/jjco/hys077
  31. SRS (2012). Based Abridge Life Tables, 2002-2006, Registrar General, India. cbhidghs.nic.in/writereaddata/mainlinkFile/ File1131.pdf accessed on 26.4.2012
  32. Takiar R, Nadayil D, Nandakumar A (2010). Projections of number of cancer cases in India (2010-2020) by cancer groups. Asian Pac J Cancer Prev, 11, 1045-9.
  33. Tamimi RM, Byrne C, Baer HJ, et al (2005). Benign Breast disease, recent alcohol consumption, and risk of breast cancer: a nested case-control study. Breast Cancer Res, 7, 555-62. https://doi.org/10.1186/bcr1039
  34. Thun MJ, Jemal A (2003). Cancer epidemiology, prevention and screening, Cancer medicine. Holland Frei American Cancer Society, Philadelphia; BC Decker Inc, 367-81.
  35. Umadevi K (2009). Current status of gynecological cancer care in India. J Gynecol Oncol, 20, 77-80. https://doi.org/10.3802/jgo.2009.20.2.77
  36. WHO (2010). Global status Report on Non Communicable Disease, Geneva, World Health Organization 2011.
  37. World Cancer Research Fund . American Institute for Cancer Research (2007). Food, Nutrition, Physical Activity, and the Prevention of Cancer: a Global Perspective. Washington DC. http://www.dietandcancerreport.org/index.php accessed on 11th June2013.
  38. Yeole B (1997). Cancer in India in the year 2001. Acta Universitatis Tamperensis 552, Academic dissertation, Tampere School of Public Health, University of Tampere, Finland.
  39. Yip CH, Taib NA, Mohammed I (2006). Epidemiology of breast cancer in Malaysia. Asian Pac J cancer Prev, 7, 369-74.
  40. Yoo KY, Kim Y, Park SK, Kang D (2006). Lifestyle, genetic susceptibility and future trends of breast cancer in Korea. Asian Pac J cancer Prev, 7, 679-82.

Cited by

  1. Overview of Cancer Registration Research in the Asian Pacific from 2008-2013 vol.14, pp.8, 2013, https://doi.org/10.7314/APJCP.2013.14.8.4461
  2. A Single Measure of Cancer Burden Combining Incidence with Mortality Rates for Worldwide Application vol.15, pp.1, 2014, https://doi.org/10.7314/APJCP.2014.15.1.433
  3. Feasibility of Computed Tomography Colonography as a Diagnostic Procedure in Colon Cancer Screening in India vol.15, pp.13, 2014, https://doi.org/10.7314/APJCP.2014.15.13.5111
  4. Evaluation of an Educational Program on Cervical Cancer for Rural Women in Mangalore, Southern India vol.15, pp.16, 2014, https://doi.org/10.7314/APJCP.2014.15.16.6603
  5. Role of Household Exposure, Dietary Habits and Glutathione S-Transferases M1, T1 Polymorphisms in Susceptibility to Lung Cancer among Women in Mizoram India vol.15, pp.7, 2014, https://doi.org/10.7314/APJCP.2014.15.7.3253
  6. Is the Tumor Infiltrating Natural Killer Cell (NK-TILs) Count in Infiltrating Ductal Carcinoma of Breast Prognostically Significant? vol.15, pp.8, 2014, https://doi.org/10.7314/APJCP.2014.15.8.3757
  7. Demographic Survey of Four Thousand Patients with 10 Common Cancers in North Eastern Iran over the Past Three Decades vol.15, pp.23, 2014, https://doi.org/10.7314/APJCP.2014.15.23.10193
  8. Association of a p53 Codon 72 Gene Polymorphism with Environmental Factors and Risk of Lung Cancer: a Case Control Study in Mizoram and Manipur, a High Incidence Region in North East India vol.15, pp.24, 2015, https://doi.org/10.7314/APJCP.2014.15.24.10653
  9. Immunohistochemical Profile of Breast Cancer Patients at a Tertiary Care Hospital in New Delhi, India vol.16, pp.12, 2015, https://doi.org/10.7314/APJCP.2015.16.12.4959
  10. Ethnic Variation in Consumption of Traditional Tobacco Products and Lung Cancer Risk in Nepal vol.16, pp.14, 2015, https://doi.org/10.7314/APJCP.2015.16.14.5721
  11. Lung Cancer in a Rural Area of China: Rapid Rise in Incidence and Poor Improvement in Survival vol.16, pp.16, 2015, https://doi.org/10.7314/APJCP.2015.16.16.7295
  12. Single Life Time Cytological Screening in High Risk Women as an Economical and Feasible Approach to Control Cervical Cancer in Developing Countries Like India vol.16, pp.3, 2015, https://doi.org/10.7314/APJCP.2015.16.3.859
  13. Years of Potential Life Lost and Productivity Costs Due to Premature Cancer-Related Mortality in Iran vol.16, pp.5, 2015, https://doi.org/10.7314/APJCP.2015.16.5.1845
  14. Costing of a State-Wide Population Based Cancer Awareness and Early Detection Campaign in a 2.67 Million Population of Punjab State in Northern India vol.17, pp.2, 2016, https://doi.org/10.7314/APJCP.2016.17.2.791
  15. Commonest Cancers in Pakistan - Findings and Histopathological Perspective from a Premier Surgical Pathology Center in Pakistan vol.17, pp.3, 2016, https://doi.org/10.7314/APJCP.2016.17.3.1061
  16. Promoter methylation and gene polymorphism are two independent events in regulation of GSTP1 gene expression vol.39, pp.4, 2017, https://doi.org/10.1177/1010428317697563
  17. Emerging technologies and innovation policies in India: how disparities in cancer research might be furthering health inequities? pp.1751-6242, 2018, https://doi.org/10.1080/17516234.2018.1511219