Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention

Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention (아시아태평양암예방학회)
권호 표지
DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

Projection of Burden of Cancer Mortality for India, 2011-2026

  • Dsouza, Neevan D.R. (Department of Community Medicine, Yenepoya Medical College, Yenepoya University) ;
  • Murthy, N.S. (Gokula Education Foundation (M), MS Ramaiah Academy of Health and Applied Sciences, Division of Research and Patents Bangalore) ;
  • Aras, R.Y. (Department of Community Medicine, Yenepoya Medical College, Yenepoya University)
  • Published : 2013.07.30
Download PDF
⟨ Previous Next ⟩

Abstract

Projection of load of cancer mortality helps in quantifying the burden of cancer and is essential for planning cancer control activities. As per our knowledge, there have not been many attempts to project the cancer mortality burden at the country level in India mainly due to lack of data on cancer mortality at the national and state level. This is an attempt to understand the magnitude of cancer mortality problem for the various calendar years from 2011 to 2026 at 5-yearly intervals. Age, sex and site-wise specific cancer mortality data along with populations covered by the registries were obtained from the report of National Cancer Registry Programme published by Indian Council of Medical Research for the period 2001-2004. Pooled age sex specific cancer mortality rates were obtained by taking weighted average of these six registries with respective registry populations as weights. The pooled mortality rates were assumed to represent the country's mortality rates. Populations of the country according to age and sex exposed to the risk of cancer mortality in different calendar years were obtained from the report of Registrar General of India providing population projections for the country for the years from 2011 to 2026. Population forecasts were combined with the pooled mortality rates to estimate the projected number of cancer mortality cases by age, sex and site of cancer at various 5-yearly periods Viz. 2011, 2016, 2021 and 2026. The projections were carried out for the various cancer-leading sites as well as for 'all sites' of cancer. The results revealed that an estimated 0.44 million died due to cancer during the year 2011, while 0.51 million and 0.60 million persons are likely to die from cancer in 2016 and 2021. In the year 2011 male mortality was estimated to be 0.23 million and female mortality to be 0.20 million. The estimated cancer mortality would increase to 0.70 million by the year 2026 as a result of change in size and composition of population. In males increase will be to 0.38 millions and in females to 0.32 millions. Among women, cancer of the breast, cervical and ovary account for 34 percent of all cancer deaths. The leading sites of cancer mortality in males are lung, oesophagus, prostrate and stomach. The above results show a need for commitment for tackling cancer by reducing risk factors and strengthening the existing screening and treatment facilities.

Keywords

References

  1. Boyle P, Ferlay J (2005).Cancer incidence and mortality in Europe, 2004. Ann Oncol, 16, 481-8. https://doi.org/10.1093/annonc/mdi098
  2. Dikshit R, Gupta PC, Ramasundarahettige C, et al (2012). Cancer mortality in India: a nationally representative survey. Lancet, 79, 1807-16.
  3. Dinshaw KA, Rao DN, Ganesh B (1999). Tata Memorial Hospital Cancer Registry Annual Report, Mumbai, India.
  4. Ferlay J, Shin HR, Bray F, et al (2010). Estimates of worldwide burden of cancer in 2008:GLOBOCAN 2008. Int J Cancer, 127, 2893-917. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijc.25516
  5. IARC Globocan 2008 (2010). International Agency for Research on Cancer. http://www.iarc.fr/en/media-centre/ iarcnews/2011/worldcancerday2011.php
  6. Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) (2006), Assessment of Burden of Non- Communicable Diseases.
  7. Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) (2009), Study on Causes of Death by Verbal Autopsy in India, ICMR, New Delhi, India accessed on 7th March 2013 http://www.icmr. nic.in/final/causes_death/NCD.pdf
  8. Jindal SK, Behera D (1990). Clinical spectrum of primary lung cancer: review of chandigarh experience of 10 years. Lung India, 8, 94-8.
  9. Jha P, Gajalakshmi V, Gupta PC, et al (2006). Prospective study of one million deaths in India: Rationale, design, and validation results. PLoS Med, 3, 18. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.0030018
  10. Khuri FR, Herbst RS, Fossells FV (2001).Emerging therapies in non-small-cell lung cancer. Ann Oncol, 12, 739-44. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1011197500223
  11. Kitchener H, Castle PE, Cox JT (2006). Achievements and limitations of cervical cytology screening. Vaccine, 24, 63-70.
  12. Marimuthu P (2008). Projection of Cancer Incidence in five cities and cancer mortality in India. Indian J Cancer, 45, 4-7. https://doi.org/10.4103/0019-509X.40639
  13. Moore MA, Sobue T (2010). Strategies for cancer control on an organ- site basis. Asian Pac J Cancer Prev, 10, 149-64.
  14. Murthy NS, Mathew A (2004). Cancer epidemiology, prevention and control. Curr Sci, 86, 518-27.
  15. Murthy NS, Nandakumar BS, Pruthvish S, George PS, Mathew A (2010). Disability adjusted life years for cancer patients in India. Asian Pac J Cancer Prev, 11, 1-6.
  16. National Cancer Registry Programme (NCRP) (2010). Three year report of the Population Based Cancer Registries 2006- 2008. Indian Council of Medical Research, New Delhi.
  17. National Cancer Registry Programme (NCRP) (2006). Consolidated Report of Population Based Cancer Registries 2001-2004.Indian Council of Medical Research. New Delhi.
  18. Parkin DM, Whelan SL, Ferlay J (2002). Cancer incidence in five continents Vol.VIII. International Agency for research on Cancer, Lyon, France, IARC Scientific Publication No. 155.
  19. Quinn MJ, D'Onofrio A, Moller B, et al (2003). Cancer mortality trends in the EU and acceding countries up to 2015. Ann Oncol, 14, 1148-52. https://doi.org/10.1093/annonc/mdg307
  20. Registrar General of India (2006). Population projections for India and States- Report of the technical group on population projection, 2001-2026. Census of India 2001; Ministry of Health and Family welfare Govt. of India. New-Delhi.
  21. Shin HR, Carlos MC, Varghese C (2012). Cancer control in the asia pacific region: current status and concerns. Jpn J Clin Oncol, 42, 867-81. https://doi.org/10.1093/jjco/hys077
  22. Thun MJ, DeLancey JO, Center MM, Jemal A, Ward EM (2010). The global burden of cancer: priorities for prevention. Carcinogenesis, 31, 100-10. https://doi.org/10.1093/carcin/bgp263
  23. Varghese C (2004). Cancer prevention and control in India. Ministry of Health and Family Welfare. http://mohfw.nic. in/WriteReadData/l892s/pg56to67-29242281.pdf accessed on 29 April 2012.
  24. WHO (2010). Global status Report on Non Communicable Disease, Geneva, World Health Organization 2011.
  25. WHO (2012). http://www.who.int/features/factfiles/cancer/facts/en/index9.html accessed on December 28, 2012.

Cited by

  1. Overview of Cancer Registration Research in the Asian Pacific from 2008-2013 vol.14, pp.8, 2013, https://doi.org/10.7314/APJCP.2013.14.8.4461
  2. A Model Approach to Calculate Cancer Prevalence from 5 Years Survival Data for Selected Cancer Sites in India - Part II vol.15, pp.14, 2014, https://doi.org/10.7314/APJCP.2014.15.14.5681
  3. Hematologic Toxicity in Patients Undergoing Radical Anti-cancer Therapy: A Cross-Sectional Analysis of Patients in an Oncology Ward in India vol.15, pp.8, 2014, https://doi.org/10.7314/APJCP.2014.15.8.3587
  4. Is the Tumor Infiltrating Natural Killer Cell (NK-TILs) Count in Infiltrating Ductal Carcinoma of Breast Prognostically Significant? vol.15, pp.8, 2014, https://doi.org/10.7314/APJCP.2014.15.8.3757
  5. Years of Potential Life Lost Due to Breast and Cervical Cancer: a Challenge for Brazilian Public Policy vol.15, pp.23, 2015, https://doi.org/10.7314/APJCP.2014.15.23.10313
  6. Gynaecological Cancer Mortality in Serbia, 1991-2010: A Joinpoint Regression Analysis vol.16, pp.1, 2015, https://doi.org/10.7314/APJCP.2015.16.1.157
  7. Radical Esophagectomy After Neoadjuvant Chemoradiation: Single Institutional Experience from Tertiary Cancer Centre in India vol.6, pp.3, 2015, https://doi.org/10.1007/s13193-015-0402-3
  8. Smokeless tobacco-associated cancers: A systematic review and meta-analysis of Indian studies vol.138, pp.6, 2015, https://doi.org/10.1002/ijc.29884