Journal of Energy Engineering (에너지공학)

The Korean Society for Energy (한국에너지학회)
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Economic Effects of the Post-2020 Climate Change Mitigation Commitments: From the Generation Industry's Perspective

Post-2020 신기후체제의 발전부문 대응에 따른 경제적 파급효과 분석

  • Yun, Taesik (Korea Hydro&Nuclear Power Co. LTD, Central Research Institute, Decommissioning & Spent Fuel Technology Center, Decommissioning Engineering Team) ;
  • Lee, Bongyong (Korea Hydro&Nuclear Power Co., Innovation Office, LTD Management Research Institute) ;
  • Noh, Jaeyup (Korea Hydro&Nuclear Power Co., Innovation Office, LTD Management Research Institute)
  • 윤태식 (한국수력원자력주식회사 중앙연구원 원전사후기술센터 해체팀) ;
  • 이봉용 (한국수력원자력주식회사 경영혁신실 경영연구소) ;
  • 노재엽 (한국수력원자력주식회사 경영혁신실 경영연구소)
  • Received : 2015.10.20
  • Accepted : 2016.08.02
  • Published : 2016.09.30
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Abstract

We analyze economic effects of GHG reduction measures of the generation industry to meet 2030 GHG reduction target using the scenario based approach. We estimate the GHG emission of the Korean power industry in 2030 based on both the $7^{th}$ Electricity Supply & Demand Plan and the GHG emission coefficients issued by IAEA. We set up three scenarios for reduction measures by replacing the coal fired plants with nuclear power, renewable energy and carbon capture and storage. Once and for all, the nuclear power scenario dominates the other energy technologies in terms of GHG reduction quantities and economic effects.

본 논문은 최근 공표된 Post-2020 신기후체제의 국가적 대응에 따른 발전부문의 역할들을 시나리오로 설정하여 경제적 파급효과를 비교 분석 하였다. 이를 위해 제7차 전력수급기본계획에서 제시한 2030년 발전원별 추정 발전량에 IAEA에서 발표한 온실가스 배출계수를 적용하여 온실가스 배출량을 예측하여 발전부문에서 발생시키는 초과 배출량을 산정하였다. 초과 배출량 감축을 위해 세 가지 시나리오를 기반으로 하였으며, 이들은 원자력발전소로 대체, 신재생발전설비 확대, CCS 도입 등이다. 분석 결과 원자력 발전소 대체 시나리오가 배출량 감소 및 경제적인 측면에서 가장 긍정적인 결과를 보였다.

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