Journal of Korean Society of Transportation (대한교통학회지)

Korean Society of Transportation (대한교통학회)
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Evaluating Traffic Safety Benefits of Electronic Stability Control System Using a Meta Analysis: Focused on Accident Rates

메타분석을 이용한 차체자세제어장치(ESC)의 교통안전성 효과분석: 사고율 분석을 중심으로

  • OH, Minsoo (Transportation and Logistics Engineering, Hanyang University) ;
  • YOUN, Seokmin (Transportation and Logistics Engineering, Hanyang University) ;
  • JEONG, Eunbi (Transportation System Research Team, Korea Railroad Research Institute) ;
  • OH, Cheol (Transportation and Logistics Engineering, Hanyang University)
  • 오민수 (한양대학교 교통.물류공학과) ;
  • 윤석민 (한양대학교 교통.물류공학과) ;
  • 정은비 (한국철도기술연구원 녹색교통물류시스템공학연구소 교통체계분석연구팀) ;
  • 오철 (한양대학교 교통.물류공학과)
  • Received : 2017.05.08
  • Accepted : 2017.08.30
  • Published : 2017.08.31
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Abstract

The objective of this study is to identify the effectiveness of ESC(Electronic Stability Control) based on a meta analysis technique. Accident Rate, Fatal Crash Rate, Loss of Control Crash Rate were set as indexes of traffic safety evaluation. Also, reviews on the effectiveness of ESC were collected using keyword, 'ESC'. As a result, the Effect size of accident rate odd ratio was 0.90. When ESC system was applied on vehicles, accident rate decreased by 10%. Also, the Effect size of fatal crash rate odd ratio was 0.64. When ESC system was applied on vehicles, fatal crash rate decreased by 36%. Lastly, the Effect size of loss of control crash rate odd ratio was 0.73. When ESC system was applied on vehicles, loss of control crash rate decreased by 27%. The outcome of this study would be effectively used for developing polices and regulations for ESC installation obligation of commercial vehicles.

본 연구는 메타분석(Meta-Analysis) 기법을 적용하여 ESC(Electronic Stability Control) 시스템의 교통안전 측면의 효과를 평가하였다. 교통안전성의 평가지표로 사고율, 사망사고율, 통제상실 사고율을 설정하였으며 ESC를 주요 키워드로 선정하여 기존 문헌을 수집하였다. 수집된 연구결과를 승산비의 효과크기(Effect-size)로 정리하였고, 개별 연구들 간의 이질성을 고려하여 랜덤효과모형을 적용해 통합 승산비 효과크기를 도출하였다. 분석결과, 사고율의 승산비 효과크기는 0.90으로 차량에 ESC 적용 시 사고율이 10% 감소하는 것으로 나타났다. 또한 사망사고율의 승산비 효과크기는 0.64로 차량에 ESC 시스템 적용 시 사망사고율이 36% 감소하는 것으로 분석되었다. 통제상실 사고율의 승산비 효과크기는 0.73으로 도출되어 ESC 시스템 적용 시통제상실 사고율이 27% 감소하는 것으로 분석되었다. 본 연구의 결과는 상용차 ESC 장착 의무화를 위한 제도 정비 및 관련 기술 개발 전략 수립 시 유용하게 활용될 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

Keywords

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