Journal of Navigation and Port Research (한국항해항만학회지)

Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research (한국항해항만학회)
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A Study on the Estimation of Optimal Probability Distribution Function for Seafarers' Behavior Error

선원 행동오류에 대한 최적 확률분포함수 추정에 관한 연구

  • Park, Deuk-Jin (Graduate Course of Navigation System Engineering, Mokpo National Maritime University) ;
  • Yang, Hyeong-Seon (Division of Navigation Science, Mokpo National Maritime University) ;
  • Yim, Jeong-Bin (Division of Navigation Science, Korea Maritime and Ocean University)
  • 박득진 (목포해양대학교 대학원) ;
  • 양형선 (목포해양대학교 항해학부) ;
  • 임정빈 (한국해양대학교 항해학부)
  • Received : 2018.07.31
  • Accepted : 2018.11.12
  • Published : 2019.02.28
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Abstract

Identifying behavioral errors of seafarers that have led to marine accidents is a basis for research into prevention or mitigation of marine accidents. The purpose of this study is to estimate the optimal probability distribution function needed to model behavioral errors of crew members into three behaviors (i.e., Skill-, Rule-, Knowledge-based). Through use of behavioral data obtained from previous accidents, we estimated the optimal probability distribution function for the three behavioral errors and verified the significance between the probability values derived from the probability distribution function. Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) was applied to the probability distribution function estimation and variance analysis (ANOVA) used for the significance test. The obtained experimental results show that the probability distribution function with the smallest error can be estimated for each of the three behavioral errors for eight types of marine accidents. The statistical significance of the three behavioral errors for eight types of marine accidents calculated using the probability distribution function was observed. In addition, behavioral errors were also found to significantly affect marine accidents. The results of this study can be applied to predicting marine accidents caused by behavioral errors.

해양사고를 야기한 선원의 행동오류를 식별하는 것은 해양사고의 예방 또는 저감에 관한 연구의 기초가 된다. 본 연구의 목적은 선원들의 행동오류를 세 가지 행동(즉, Skill, Rule, Knowledge)으로 모델링하는데 필요한 최적의 확률분포함수를 추정하는데 있다. 본 저자들의 사전 연구에서 획득한 해양사고 종류별 행동오류 데이터를 이용하여 세 가지 행동오류에 최적인 확률분포함수를 추정하고, 확률분포함수에서 도출한 확률 값들 사이의 유의성을 검증하였다. 확률분포함수 추정에는 최우추정법(Maximum Likelihood Estimation, MLE)을 적용하고, 유의성 검증에는 분산분석(ANOVA)를 이용하였다. 실험결과 여덟 가지 해양사고 종류별 세 가지 행동으로 각각에 대해서 최소의 오차를 갖는 확률분포함수를 추정할 수 있었다. 이를 이용하여 계산한 여덟 가지의 해양사고 종류에 대한 세 가지 행동오류들의 확률 값들은 통계적인 유의성이 관측 되었다. 또한, 행동오류가 해양사고에 영향을 미치는 것으로 관측되었다.

Keywords

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Fig. 1 Procedure of study

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Fig. 2 Example for the selection of optimum distributionfunction by the comparison of six cumulativedistribution functions (ev, gamma, gev, lognorm,normal, weibull) to empirical cumulativedistribution function (ecdf)

Table 1 Frequency calculation results for the three types ofbehavioral errors (Park et al., 2018)

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Table 2 Example for the parameter estimation results of sixprobability distribution functions in the case ofCollision

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Table 3 Example of error and variance in case of Collision

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Table 4 Summarized calculation results of error and variancefor the type of marine accidents

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Table 5 Estimated optimal distribution functions withparameters by each type of accidents

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Table 6 ANOVA for the three types of behaviors and eighttypes of accidents

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