한국융합학회논문지 (Journal of the Korea Convergence Society)

  • 제10권8호
  • /
  • Pages.181-193
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  • 2019
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  • 2233-4890(pISSN)
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  • 2713-6353(eISSN)
한국융합학회 (Korea Convergence Society)
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동태적 변이할당분석을 이용한 제주특별자치도 산업구조 특성 분석

Characteristic Analysis of Industrial Structure in Jeju Special Self-Governing Province Using Dynamic Shift-Share Analysis

  • 양영준 (제주대학교 부동산관리학과)
  • 투고 : 2019.05.10
  • 심사 : 2019.08.20
  • 발행 : 2019.08.28
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초록

제주특별자치도 출범, 순유입입구 증가 등으로 제주 지역경제는 2011년부터 전국보다 높은 경제성장세를 보이고 있으나, 2016년 이후 경제성장이 둔화되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 지역경제의 변화요인이 많았던 제주도를 대상으로 2010년부터 2016년까지 산업별 생산액과 종사자수를 이용하여 동태적 변이할당분석을 실시하였다. 분석결과 제주 지역경제는 국가성장에 의존하는 산업구조에서 벗어나 산업구조와 지역의 경쟁력에 의한 산업구조로 성장하고 있다고 할 수 있다. 생산액과 종사자수에 대해 산업구조 효과와 경쟁 효과가 모두 양(+)의 값을 갖는 산업으로 전기 가스 증기 및 수도사업, 건설업, 숙박 및 음식점업, 사업서비스업으로 분석되었다. 이들 산업은 제주 지역경제에 긍정적인 영향을 미치고 있는 산업들이라 할 수 있다. 앞에서 언급한 산업들은 여타 지역에 비해 성장률이 높을 뿐만 아니라 제주 지역경제를 견인하는 사업이라 할 수 있다. 이 산업들이 지속적으로 제주 지역경제에 기여할 수 있도록 장기적인 관점에서 정책적 제도적 지원이 필요하다고 하겠다.

The regional economy growth of Jeju has seen higher than national growth since 2011 by the establishment of Jeju Special Self-Governing Province and the increase of incoming population, but its economic growth has slowed after 2016. This study conducted the dynamic shift-share analysis using the production and employees of each industry from 2010 to 2016, targeting Jeju with many factors of regional economic change. In the results of empirical analysis, the regional economy of Jeju was not the industrial structure depending on the national growth, but the industrial structure by the competitiveness and industrial structure of Jeju region. The industries having positive(+) effects of industrial mix effect and competitive effect on the production and the number of employees were the electricity/gas/heavy equipments & waterworks, construction, accommodation & restaurants, and service industry. These industries have positive effects on the regional industry of Jeju. The above-mentioned industries are not only more likely to grow than other regions, but also to drive the local economy of Jeju. In order for these industries to continuously contribute to the regional economy of Jeju, it would be necessary to have the policy/institutional support in the long-term perspective.

키워드

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