한국농공학회논문집 (Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers)

  • 제62권6호
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  • Pages.85-95
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  • 2020
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  • 1738-3692(pISSN)
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  • 2093-7709(eISSN)
한국농공학회 (The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers)
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기후변화와 강우분포 및 CN에 따른 미래 홍수량 평가

Assessment of Future Flood According to Climate Change, Rainfall Distribution and CN

  • Kwak, Jihye (Department of Rural Systems Engineering, Seoul National University) ;
  • Kim, Jihye (Department of Rural Systems Engineering, Seoul National University) ;
  • Jun, Sang Min (Department of Rural Systems Engineering, Seoul National University) ;
  • Hwang, Soonho (Research Institute of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Seoul National University) ;
  • Lee, Sunghack (Convergence Center for Watershed Management, Integrated Watershed Management Institute) ;
  • Lee, Jae Nam (Water Resources & Environment Research Group, Rural Research Institute, Korea Rural Community Corporation) ;
  • Kang, Moon Seong (Department of Rural Systems Engineering, Research Institute of Agriculture and Life sciences, Institute of Green Bio Science and Technology, Seoul National University)
  • 투고 : 2020.09.24
  • 심사 : 2020.10.26
  • 발행 : 2020.11.30
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초록

According to the standard guidelines of design flood (MLTM, 2012; MOE, 2019), the design flood is calculated based on past precipitation. However, due to climate change, the frequency of extreme rainfall events is increasing. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze future floods' volume by using climate change scenarios. Meanwhile, the standard guideline was revised by MOE (Ministry of Environment) recently. MOE proposed modified Huff distribution and new CN (Curve Number) value of forest and paddy. The objective of this study was to analyze the change of flood volume by applying the modified Huff and newly proposed CN to the probabilistic precipitation based on SSP and RCP scenarios. The probabilistic rainfall under climate change was calculated through RCP 4.5/8.5 scenarios and SSP 245/585 scenarios. HEC-HMS (Hydrologic Engineering Center - Hydrologic Modeling System) was simulated for evaluating the flood volume. When RCP 4.5/8.5 scenario was changed to SSP 245/585 scenario, the average flood volume increased by 627 ㎥/s (15%) and 523 ㎥/s (13%), respectively. By the modified Huff distribution, the flood volume increased by 139 ㎥/s (3.76%) on a 200-yr frequency and 171 ㎥/s (4.05%) on a 500-yr frequency. The newly proposed CN made the future flood value increase by 9.5 ㎥/s (0.30%) on a 200-yr frequency and 8.5 ㎥/s (0.25%) on a 500-yr frequency. The selection of climate change scenario was the biggest factor that made the flood volume to transform. Also, the impact of change in Huff was larger than that of CN about 13-16 times.

키워드

참고문헌

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