Korean Journal of Organic Agriculture (한국유기농업학회지)

Korean Association of Organic Agriculture (한국유기농업학회)
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Analysis of Social Welfare Effects of Onion Observation Using Big Data

빅데이터를 활용한 양파 관측의 사회적 후생효과 분석

  • Received : 2021.02.23
  • Accepted : 2021.06.03
  • Published : 2021.08.31
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Abstract

This study estimated the predictive onion yield through Stepwise regression of big data and weather variables by onion growing season. The economic feasibility of onion observations using big data was analyzed using estimated predictive data. The social welfare effect was estimated through the model of Harberger's triangle using onion yield prediction with big data and it without big data. Predicted yield using big data showed a deviation of -9.0% to 4.2%. As a result of estimating the social welfare effect, the average annual value was 23.3 billion won. The average annual value of social welfare effects if big data was not used was measured at 22.4 billion won. Therefore, it was estimated that the difference between the social welfare effect when the prediction using big data was used and when it was not was about 950 million won. When these results are applied to items other than onion items, the effect will be greater. It is judged that it can be used as basic data to prove the justification of the agricultural observation project. However, since the simple Harberger's triangle theory has the limitation of oversimplifying reality, it is necessary to evaluate the economic value through various methods such as measuring the effect of agricultural observation under a more realistic rational expectation hypothesis in future studies.

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References

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