• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
• /
• v.49 no.9
• /
• pp.789-798
• /
• 2016

Frequent algal blooms at major river systems in Korea have been serious social and environmental problems. Especially, the appearance of cyanobacteria with toxic materials is a threat to secure a safe drinking water. In order to model the behaviour of cyanobacteria cell number, an exclusive causality analysis using prewhitening technique was introduced to delineate effective parameters to predict the cell numbers of cyanobacteria in Seungchon Weir and Juksan Weir along Youngsan river system. Both input and output transfer function models were obtained to explain temporal variation of cyanobacteria cell number. A threshold behaviour of water temperature was implemented into the model development to consider winter characteristic of cyanobacteria. The implementation of water temperature threshold into the model structure improves the predictability in simulation. Even though the input output transfer model cannot completely explained all blooms of cyanobacteria, the simple structure of model provide a feasibility in application which can be important in practical aspect.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
• /
• v.10 no.2
• /
• pp.91-102
• /
• 2007

To anticipate and respond to harmful algae produced in a big artificial lake like Daecheong reservoir, development of a regional analysis computer system using GIS or RS technique is needed in addition to biological and chemical research. The purpose of this study is to develop a cyanobacterial blooming prediction model to prevent harmful algae produced in Daecheong reservoir and construct an early forecasting system based on GIS. For this purpose this paper examines previous studies related to the relationship between cyanobacteria and environmental factors in Daecheong reservoir and selects precipitation and air temperature as two important environmental factors for the development of cyanobacterial blooming prediction model. Data used in this study are water quality and weather data for three water regions in Daecheong reservoir between 2000 and 2004. Based on qualitative correlation analysis between cyanobacteria and environmental factors, this paper presents a Rump model which enables us to predict cyanobacteria in water regions of Daecheong reservoir. Under this model the prediction of initial occurrence time and growth period of cyanobacteria are possible. The model is also applied to the GIS-based early forecasting system for cyanobacteria, and finally a GIS which can predict cyanobacteria produced in Daecheong reservoir and can manage the related data is developed.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
• /
• v.54 no.spc1
• /
• pp.1167-1181
• /
• 2021

In relation to the algae bloom, four types of blue-green algae that emit toxic substances are designated and managed as harmful Cyanobacteria, and prediction information using a physical model is being also published. However, as algae are living organisms, it is difficult to predict according to physical dynamics, and not easy to consider the effects of numerous factors such as weather, hydraulic, hydrology, and water quality. Therefore, a lot of researches on algal bloom prediction using machine learning have been recently conducted. In this study, the characteristic importance of water quality factors affecting the occurrence of Cyanobacteria harmful algal blooms (CyanoHABs) were analyzed using the random forest (RF) model for Bohyeonsan Dam and Yeongcheon Dam located in Yeongcheon-si, Gyeongsangbuk-do and also predicted the occurrence of harmful blue-green algae using the machine learning and deep learning models and evaluated their accuracy. The water temperature and total nitrogen (T-N) were found to be high in common, and the occurrence prediction of CyanoHABs using artificial neural network (ANN) also predicted the actual values closely, confirming that it can be used for the reservoirs that require the prediction of harmful cyanobacteria for algal management in the future.

• Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
• /
• v.40 no.3
• /
• pp.121-129
• /
• 2024

Harmful cyanobacterial blooms (HCBs) are caused by the rapid proliferation of cyanobacteria and are believed to be exacerbated by climate change. However, the extent to which HCBs will be stimulated in the future due to increased temperature remains uncertain. This study aims to predict the future occurrence of cyanobacteria in the Nakdong River, which has the highest incidence of HCBs in South Korea, based on temperature rise scenarios. Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) were used as the basis for these scenarios. Data-driven model simulations were conducted, and out of the four machine learning techniques tested (multiple linear regression, support vector regressor, decision tree, and random forest), the random forest model was selected for its relatively high prediction accuracy. The random forest model was used to predict the occurrence of cyanobacteria. The results of boxplot and time-series analyses showed that under the worst-case scenario (RCP8.5 (2100)), where temperature increases significantly, cyanobacterial abundance across all study areas was greatly stimulated. The study also found that the frequencies of HCB occurrences exceeding certain thresholds (100,000 and 1,000,000 cells/mL) increased under both the best-case scenario (RCP2.6 (2050)) and worst-case scenario (RCP8.5 (2100)). These findings suggest that the frequency of HCB occurrences surpassing a certain threshold level can serve as a useful diagnostic indicator of vulnerability to temperature increases caused by climate change. Additionally, this study highlights that water bodies currently susceptible to HCBs are likely to become even more vulnerable with climate change compared to those that are currently less susceptible.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
• /
• 2020.06a
• /
• pp.208-208
• /
• 2020

지구온난화와 하천환경의 변화로 수질 오염이 심각해지고 녹조 현상 등의 피해가 증가하고 있다. 특히, 기후변화로 인해 온도와 강우량의 변동성이 동시에 증가하고 있어 하천의 수환경 관리측면에서 어려움이 증가하고 있다. 최근 하천 개발 사업으로 인한 인공 구조물 축조로 하천의 오염도 변화는 중요한 논점으로 대두되었으며, 그에 따라 정확한 수질 전망이 요구되고 있다. 녹조평가에 있어 주요 대리변수(proxy variable)로 chlorophyll-a(Chl-a)가 사용되고 있지만, Chl-a는 규조류와 남조류(cyanobacteria) 모두에서 발견되는 지표로서, 녹조의 유해성을 Chl-a 수질 지표만을 사용하여 판단하기에는 한계가 있다. Chl-a뿐만 아니라 수질에 대한 유량, 온도, 영양염류 등의 영향 또한 기존 연구에서 밝혀진 바 있다. 하지만 기존의 물리기반의 결정론적모형은 수질의 추계학적(stochastic) 특성을 반영하는데 제한적이며, 다양한 수문기상학적 조건을 고려한 시나리오 기반의 분석을 수행하는데 한계가 있다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 특정 지점의 보 건설 이후 수문기상 자료를 이용하여 유해 남조류 개체수와 관계있는 수문기상학적 요인을 평가하고 최종적으로 Bayesian Poisson Regression 기반의 중·장기 녹조 예측 모형을 개발하였으며, 해설결과에 대한 불확실성 정보도 제공할 수 있도록 하였다.

• Journal of Wetlands Research
• /
• v.23 no.1
• /
• pp.27-34
• /
• 2021

In this study, the main influencing factors of the occurrence of cyanobacteria at each of the eight Multifunctional weirs were derived using a random forest, and a categorical prediction model based on a Algal bloom warning system was developed. As a result of examining the importance of variables in the random forest, it was found that the upstream points were directly affected by weir operation during the occurrence of cyanobacteria. This means that cyanobacteria can be managed through efficient security management. DO and E.C were indicated as major influencers in midstream. The midstream section is a section where large-scale industrial complexes such as Gumi and Gimcheon are concentrated as well as the emissions of basic environmental facilities have a great influence. During the period of heatwave and drought, E.C increases along with the discharge of environmental facilities discharged from the basin, which promotes the outbreak of cyanobacteria. Those monitoring sites located in the middle and lower streams are areas that are most affected by heat waves and droughts, and therefore require preemptive management in preparation for the outbreak of cyanobacteria caused by drought in summer. Through this study, the characteristics of cyanobacteria at each point were analyzed. It can provide basic data for policy decision-making for customized cyanobacteria management.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
• /
• 2021.06a
• /
• pp.83-83
• /
• 2021

수리구조물로 인한 유황변화와 함께 기후변화로 기인하는 강우변동성 및 온도 증가는 수생태 전반에 악영향을 미치는 주요 인자로 작용하고 있다. 특히, 최근 가뭄으로 인한 유황감소 및 폭염 등으로 여름철 녹조의 발생 빈도 및 강도 증가가 지속적으로 증가하고 있다. 본 연구에서는 하천에서 계측되고 있는 Cyanobacteria 개체수를 기반으로 녹조발생 여부를 전망할 수 있는 모형을 개발하고자 한다. Cyanobacteria 개체수를 기준으로 녹조발생 여부를 판단할 수 있도록 기준값(threshold)을 설정하고 binary 형태로 시계열을 구성하였다. 이를 Bernoulli 모형에 적합하여 녹조 발생 여부를 판단할 수 있도록 모형을 개발하였다. 하천을 따라 나타나는 녹조는 시공간적으로 유사한 특성을 가지며, 이러한 점을 고려하여 여러 관측지점을 동시에 모델링하는 것이 모형의 효율성과 예측성 측면에서 유리하다. 본 연구에서는 낙동강을 따라 여러 녹조관측지점을 대상으로 동시에 모델링이 가능하도록 다변량 Bernoulli 모형 기반의 녹조 예측 모형을 제시하고 과거 자료를 대상으로 모형의 적합성을 평가하였다. 다양한 지표를 기준으로 교차검증을 수행하였으며, 기존 물리적 모델에 비해 모형의 예측성능 및 효율성 측면에서 우수성을 확인할 수 있었다.

• Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
• /
• v.46 no.1
• /
• pp.1-9
• /
• 2013

Algal blooms in potable water supplies are becoming an increasingly prevalent and serious water quality problem around the world. In addition to precipitating taste and odor problems, blooms damage the environment, and some classes like cyanobacteria (blue-green algae) release toxins that can threaten human health, even causing death. There is a recognized need in the water industry for models that can accurately forecast in real-time algal bloom events for planning and mitigation purposes. In this study, using data for an interconnected system of rivers and reservoirs operated by a New Jersey water utility, various ANN models, including both discrete prediction and classification models, were developed and tested for forecasting counts of three different algal classes for one-week and two-weeks ahead periods. Predictor model inputs included physical, meteorological, chemical, and biological variables, and two different temporal schemes for processing inputs relative to the prediction event were used. Despite relatively limited historical data, the discrete prediction ANN models generally performed well during validation, achieving relatively high correlation coefficients, and often predicting the formation and dissipation of high algae count periods. The ANN classification models also performed well, with average classification percentages averaging 94 percent accuracy. Despite relatively limited data events, this study demonstrates that with adequate data collection, both in terms of the number of historical events and availability of important predictor variables, ANNs can provide accurate real-time forecasts of algal population counts, as well as foster increased understanding of important cause and effect relationships, which can be used to both improve monitoring programs and forecasting efforts.

• Korean Journal of Environmental Biology
• /
• v.37 no.3
• /
• pp.433-445
• /
• 2019

This study was designed to develop simple tools to easily and efficiently predict the occurrence of algal bloom in agricultural lakes. Physicochemical water quality parameters were examined to reflect the phytoplankton productivity in 182 samples collected from 15 agricultural lakes from April to October 2018. Total phytoplankton abundance was significantly correlated with chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) (r=0.666) and Secchi depth (SD) (r= -0.351). The abundances of cyanobacteria and harmful cyanobacteria were also correlated with Chl-a (r=0.664, r=0.353) and SD (r= -0.340, r= -0.338), respectively, but not with total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP). The Chl-a concentration was correlated with SD (r= -0.434), showing a higher similarity than phytoplankton abundance. Therefore, Chl-a and SD were selected as diagnostic factors for algal bloom prediction, instead of analyzing the standing crop of harmful cyanobacteria used in algae alarm systems. Specifically, accurate diagnoses were made using realtime SD measurements. The algal bloom diagnostic tool is an inverse cone-shaped container with an algal bloom diagnosis chart that modified SD and turbidity measurement methods. Lake water was collected to observe the number of rings visible in the container or the number indicated in each ring, depending on the degree of algal bloom,and to determine the final stage of algal blooming by comparison to the colorimetric level on the diagnosis chart. For an accurate diagnosis, we presented 4-step diagnostic criteria based on the concentration of Chl-a and the number of rings and a fan-shaped algal bloom diagnosis chart with Hexa code names. This tool eliminated the variables and errors of previous methods and the results were easily interpreted. This study is expected to facilitate the diagnosis of algal bloom in agricultural lakes and the establishment of an efficient algal bloom management plan.

• Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
• /
• v.27 no.10
• /
• pp.1123-1128
• /
• 2005

NIB(methylisoborneol) is an earthy/musty odor compound produced as a second metabolite by cyanobacteria and actinomycetes. MIB is not removed by conventional water treatment(coagulation, sedimentation, filtration) and its presence in tap water, even at low ng/L levels, can result in consumer complaints. PAC(powdered activated carbon) can effectively remove MIB when the correct dose is applied. But, since most operators in water treatment plants apply a PAC dose and then adjust that dose depending on direct observation (odor detection) after treatment, the result is often under-dose or eve,-dose. In this study, kinetic and isotherm tests using $^{14}C$-radiolabeled MIB were performed to determine coefficients for the HSDM(homogeneous surface diffusion model), including liquid film mass transfer coefficient($K_f$) and surface diffusion coefficient ($D_s$). The HSDM gave a reasonable fit and allowed prediction with the experimental data. Base on the HSDM, the authors developed an optimum PAC dose prediction program using the Excel spreadsheet. When the developed program was applied at two water treatment plants, the PAC dose based on the experience of operators in the water treatment plant was significantly different from that recommended by the newly developed program. If operators are willing to use the optimum PAC dose prediction program, it should solve dosing problems.