The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers (전기학회논문지)

The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers (대한전기학회)
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A Scheme for Reducing Load Forecast Error During Weekends Near Typhoon Hit

태풍 발생 인접 주말의 수요예측 오차 감소 방안

  • Published : 2009.09.01
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Abstract

In general, short term load forecasting is based on the periodical load pattern during a day or a week. Therefore, the conventional methods do not expose stable performance to every day during a year. Especially for anomalous weather conditions such as typhoons, the methods have a tendency to show the conspicuous accuracy deterioration. Furthermore, the tendency raises the reliability and stability problems of the conventional load forecast. In this study, a new load forecasting method is proposed in order to increase the accuracy of the forecast result in case of anomalous weather conditions such as typhoons. For irregular weather conditions, the sensitivity between temperature and daily load is used to improve the accuracy of the load forecast. The proposed method was tested with the actual load profiles during 14 years, which shows that the suggested scheme considerably improves the accuracy of the load forecast results.

Keywords

References

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