Journal of Wetlands Research (한국습지학회지)

Korean Wetlands Society (한국습지학회)
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The Effects of the Four Major Rivers Restoration Project on Regional Economy

4대강 살리기 사업의 지역경제 파급효과

  • Yoo, Seung-Hoon (Graduate School of Energy & Environment, Seoul National University of Science & Technology) ;
  • Park, Dooho (K-water Institute, Korea Water Resources Corporation)
  • 유승훈 (서울과학기술대학교 에너지환경대학원) ;
  • 박두호 (한국수자원공사 K-water 연구원)
  • Received : 2011.11.21
  • Accepted : 2012.12.03
  • Published : 2013.05.31
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Abstract

The 4 major rivers restoration project (4RRP) requires the government to invest a lot of money. Regional economic effect is one of the main purposes of implementing the 4RRP. This paper attempts to measure the regional economic effects, focusing on regional employment-inducing effect and regional income-inducing effect. Regional employment-inducing effect is computed by excluding indirect effect and directly investigating the amount of employment. To this end, marginal propensity to consume, household consumption, household income should be derived. We used working day data and government expenditure multiplier to measure local employment creation and income generation. As a result, the project creates 46,628 employments from 2009 to 25 August 2011 and generates 25 trillion won regional income for three years.

4대강 살리기 사업은 막대한 공적재원이 투입된 대규모 국책사업으로서 지역경제 활성화는 사업의 여러 가지 목적 중 하나임에 틀림없다. 이에 본 논문에서는 4대강 살리기 사업의 지역경제 파급효과를 추정하되, 지역고용 창출효과 및 지역소득 창출효과라는 두 가지 주제에 초점을 맞추고자 한다. 지역고용 창출효과를 산정하기 위해 간접적 유발효과는 제외하고 직접적인 고용량을 조사하여 제시한다. 다음으로 대규모 전국 설문조사를 통해 가계소비, 가계소득, 지역내 소비율 등에 대한 정보를 수집하여 소비함수를 추정한 후 이로부터 한계소비성향을 추정하여, 거시경제학의 승수이론에 근거하여 지역소득 창출효과를 분석한다. 분석결과 2009년 초부터 2011년 8월 25일까지 4대강사업으로 인해 신규로 고용인원은 46,628명이었으며, 2009년 초부터 2011년 말까지의 4대강사업비 투입으로 인해 지역의 소득은 약 25조원이 새롭게 창출된 것으로 판단된다.

Keywords

References

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