Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society (기술혁신학회지)

Korea Technology Innovation Society (한국기술혁신학회)
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Diffusion Patterns of Mobile Telecommunications Services in the European Countries

이동통신서비스 확산패턴 - 유럽국가 자료를 중심으로

  • Kim, Jin Ki (Korea Aerospace University, School of Business)
  • Received : 2017.08.24
  • Accepted : 2017.11.06
  • Published : 2017.12.31
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Abstract

Mobile telecom markets have dramatically increased in the last decade due to a remarkable subscriber base growth. The diffusion patterns of the services are a major concern for mobile carriers preparing those new services. We assume that the diffusion patterns of those services will be similar to those of previous mobile services, and discovering the diffusion patterns of those services is an essential task of mobile carriers for preparing the next mobile services. This study attempts to classify some groups which show similar diffusion patterns of mobile services. Using a traditional diffusion model, this study estimates diffusion patterns of twenty five western European countries. The estimation is based on the monthly penetration ratio of those countries from 1993 to 2004. Based on the estimation, the cluster analysis discovers that there are two different countries groups in terms of mobile diffusion pattern: high imitation countries and low imitation countries. The critical point for classifying the two groups in terms of imitation effect was 0.90. The results provide the basis for developing a causal relationship model which explains the different diffusion pattern of mobile services and planning new networks for the advanced mobile services.

이동통신시장은 지난 10년 동안 괄목할 만한 가입자 증가로 인해 급격하게 성장했다. 서비스의 확산패턴은 그러한 새로운 서비스를 준비하는 이동통신사에게 주요 관심사이다. 우리는 이러한 서비스의 확산패턴이 이전의 모바일 서비스와 유사할 것으로 가정하며, 이러한 서비스의 확산패턴을 확인하는 것은 차세대 모바일 서비스를 위한 이동통신사에게 필수적이다. 본 연구에서는 이동통신서비스의 유사한 확산패턴을 보여 주는 국가를 분류하였다. 전통적인 확산모델을 사용하여, 25개의 서유럽 국가들의 이동통신 확산패턴을 추정한다. 1993년부터 2004년까지 이들 국가들의 월 보급률 자료를 기초로 하였다. 클러스터 분석을 통해 이동통신 확산패턴측면에서 상위 모방국가와 하위 모방국가의 두 그룹을 분류하였다. 이 연구의 결과는 이동통신서비스의 상이한 확산패턴을 설명하기 위한 인과모형을 개발하거나 차세대 이동통신서비스를 위한 새로운 네트워크를 계획할 때 그 기초를 제공한다.

Keywords

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