Informatization Policy (정보화정책)

National Information Society Agency (한국지능정보사회진흥원)
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Forecasting the Future Korean Society: A Big Data Analysis on 'Future Society'-related Keywords in News Articles and Academic Papers

빅데이터를 통해 본 한국사회의 미래: 언론사 뉴스기사와 사회과학 학술논문의 '미래사회' 관련 키워드 분석

  • Received : 2018.08.06
  • Accepted : 2018.09.18
  • Published : 2018.12.31
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Abstract

This study aims to forecast the future of the Korean society via a big data analysis. Based upon two sets of database - a collection of 46,000,000 news on 127 media in Naver Portal operated by Naver Corporation and a collection of 70,000 academic papers of social sciences registered in KCI (Korea Citation Index of National Research Foundation) between 2005-2017, 40 most frequently occurring keywords were selected. Next, their temporal variations were traced and compared in terms of number and pattern of frequencies. In addition, core issues of the future were identified through keyword network analysis. In the case of the media news database, such issues as economy, polity or technology turned out to be the top ranked ones. As to the academic paper database, however, top ranking issues are those of feeling, working or living. Referring to the system and life-world conceptual framework suggested by $J{\ddot{u}}rgen$ Habermas, public interest of the future inclines to the matter of 'system' while professional interest of the future leans to that of 'life-world.' Given the disparity of future interest, a 'mismatch paradigm' is proposed as an alternative to social forecasting, which can substitute the existing paradigms based on the ideas of deficiency or deprivation.

본 연구는 빅데이터 분석을 통해 한국사회의 미래를 예견해보고자 한 것이다. 이러한 목적을 위해 일차적으로 국내 127개 주요 언론사의 뉴스기사(매체지) 및 사회과학 우수학술지 논문초록(학술지) DB에서 '미래사회' 관련 텍스트를 선정한 후, 해당 기사의 제목 및 논문 키워드로부터 주제어를 추출하였다. 추출한 핵심 주제어의 출현 빈도, 연도별 추세 및 주제어/연관어 연결망구조에 의거해 한국사회의 미래적 관심사를 탐지한 결과, 매체지의 미래 관심사는 '경제', '정치', '과학기술', 학술지의 그것은 '심리', '직무', '문화' 관련 사항들이 주축을 이루고 있음이 확인되었다. 여기에 $J{\ddot{u}}rgen$ Habermas의 '체계와 생활세계(system and life-world)' 개념틀을 적용하면, 매체지와 학술지의 미래 관심은 각기 '체계' 및 '생활세계' 범주에 집중되어 있다는 결론에 이르게 된다. 이 같은 미래 관심사의 분화 양상에 착안해 사회적 도전 과제들을 상이한 여건이나 가치들 간의 불일치의 소산으로 인식하는 '부조화론(mismatch theory)'을 미래연구를 위한 대안적 패러다임으로 제시함으로써, 절대적 혹은 상대적 빈곤 문제에 천착해 온 미래사회의 인식 수준을 한 단계 높이고자 한다.

Keywords

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<그림 1> 매체지 출현 빈도 순위 Frequency of forty most frequently occurred keywords in media knowledge

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<그림 2> 학술지 출현 빈도 순위 Frequency of forty most frequently occurred keywords in academic knowledge

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<그림 3> 주제어의 종단적 변화에 관한 유형화 Classification of the longitudinal changing patterns of keywords ranking

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<그림 4> 매체지 핵심 주제어 비중 변화 추이 Changing trend of keywords ranking in media knowledge

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<그림 5> 학술지 핵심 주제어 비중 변화 추이 Changing trend of keywords ranking in academic knowledge

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<그림 6> 매체지 키워드의 연결망 구조 Network structure of keywords and their co-occurrence words, media knowledge

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<그림 7> 학술지 키워드의 연결망 구조 Network structure of keywords and their co-occurrence words, academic knowledge

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<그림 8> 문재인 정부 국정운영 5개년 계획 Five-year plan of the Moon Jae-in administration

<표 5> 매체지와 학술지의 항시적 상위 주제어 비교

Comparison of permanent top topics: media knowledge vs. academic knowledge

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<표 6> 매체지와 학술지의 상위 주제어의 영역별 비교

Comparison of categories of topkeywords of media and academic knowledge

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<표 7> 부조화 유형에 따른 한국사회의 주요 도전 과제

Major challenges of korean society by types of mismatch

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<표 8> 정부 100대 국정과제의 관심사별 분류

Classification of 100 areas of national policy in terms of the sectors of interest

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<표 9> 미래 관심 키워드 빅데이터 최상위 영역과 국정과제 관련도

Areas of top future interest by big data keywords and their association with the tasks for national policy

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<표 10> 부조화 유형별로 본 정책적 지향

List of policy orientations by types of mismatch

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<표 1> 매체지 상위 주제어의 연도별 순위

Rank of top forty keywords by year in media knowledge

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<표 1 계속>

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<표 2> 학술지 상위 주제어의 연도별 순위

Rank of top forty keywords by year in academic knowledge

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<표 2 계속>

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<표 3> 매체지 상위 20위 주제어의 연관어 목록

List of co-occurrence words of top 20 keywords of media knowledge

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<표 4> 학술지 상위 20위 주제어의 연관어 목록

List of co-occurrence words of top 20 keywords of academic knowledge

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